Original | Liu Jiaolian
This is the 26th report of the [“Ten-year Agreement” real-time witness plan]. On-chain public witness address: 1PXD6FjKCJyyFAvNzWW6sS3VQa9sWLKytu Current balance: 8,036,796 Satoshi (withdrawal is done annually, the last withdrawal was made on June 1, 2024)
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Yesterday, the last day of June, Jiaolian introduced the situation of BTC miners’ capitulation in [2024.6.30 Internal Reference] on Sunday morning: “The current capitulation of BTC miners has reached a level comparable to that in December 2022, and December 2022 marked the bottom of the cycle after the FTX crash.”
In June 2024, it finally closed at 61.7k. It opened at 67.2k, reached a high of 72k, and a low of 58.4k.
The market closed down in June, and it is time to “add positions when the market falls” again. Dear readers and friends, this is the 26th report and the 18th time to add positions.
Today, July 1st, at dawn, BTC could not hold back and began to rebound violently, reaching 63.5k in an instant.
This directly made the actual increase in position price 63536 dollars, compared with the closing price of 61.7k in June, there was a huge "slippage"! It was more than 1800 dollars more expensive, and the loss was 3%, haha.
Fortunately, the way to win in the teaching chain depends mainly on strategy rather than tactical micro-management.
The following figure is a real-time accounting.
Position record:
Also, here is a chart of position value growth drawn using third-party software: (the numerical accuracy of third-party software is slightly deviated)
After this (the 18th) increase in holdings, the [“Ten-Year Promise” Real-Time Witness Plan] has a cumulative holding of 8,448,008 Satoshis, a holding cost of $42,285, and a return on investment (ROI) of 50%.
There are many voices of bulls and bears. As long as you get involved and practice it yourself, you don't need to listen to those empty words of bullishness and bearishness. Jiaolian can get the most intimate, first-hand and direct perception of the market from its own positions, so the inner peace will never be disturbed by any external voices that are bullish or bearish.
For example, if you only need to look at the position of real money in your hands [“Ten-year Agreement” real-time witness plan], you will know that the current “iron bottom” of BTC is about $42,285. The hardness of this “iron bottom” is about one year, because this position took one year to build. Interesting, right? The hardness of the bottom is measured by time.
So, dear readers, do you know why Jiaolian can remain calm and composed even when it is fully invested in the ups and downs of bull and bear markets? The key is that Jiaolian’s confidence is always based on “internal strength”, and it never places hope or relies on any seemingly powerful “external force”.
Even if this "external force" is as powerful as a myth today, such as the Federal Reserve that controls the dollar printing press, or the United States that has the most powerful military force on the earth, in the eyes of the teaching chain, they are as equal as the weak ants and humble grass on the ground in front of the door.
Tao Te Ching said, "The strong are below, and the weak are above." What is certain is that until the day the Federal Reserve steps down and the United States collapses, ants will still be foraging for food as usual, and the grass will still be "reborn in the spring breeze."
Because people know they are weak, they have a natural desire to be strong. Everyone grows up from a baby who can't walk and then learns to walk. However, many people in this world have learned to walk upright physically, but they still crawl on the ground psychologically. They crawl all their lives like this.
People who crawl are naturally in a "kneeling position." Once people stand up and walk, it is difficult for them to kneel before the so-called strong.
In the real world, people would hide their ugly crawling posture on their knees out of shame. But on the Internet, under the trending searches and in the comment section, there is a huge influx of people kneeling.
Why would you, a long position holder, be frightened by the threats of short positions and even lose your positions? Reflect on it. The root cause is that you are not confident enough and have to rely on a cane to walk shakily.
That is to say, you still have a psychological dependence on some external strong force. Your hope is still placed on the illusory "external force".
Because of this, the crutch becomes your biggest psychological weakness.
All it takes is lies and deception, or a little bit of strength, to cut off your crutches. You, who dare not walk upright on your own two legs, will immediately fall to the ground, kneel down and tremble.
Every deep correction in the market is a test of whether the bulls can stand upright and not kneel.
When you see groups of people starting to kneel down, you know that they may have reached the bottom.
This is what I said at the beginning of this article. Jiaolian introduced the BTC miners’ capitulation in the Sunday morning [2024.6.30 Internal Reference].
When Jiaolian saw that miners began to kneel down and surrender, Jiaolian knew that the market was likely to reach or had already reached the so-called "miner bottom".
Then this "miner's bottom" is likely to be around $60,000.
This principle is actually the same as what Jiao Lian said in the article "The Big Short" on June 29, 2024: "This shock wash is the bottom consolidation, not the top consolidation."
Look at the picture below. This is a chart showing the changes in BTC reserves held by the miners:
It can be clearly seen from the figure that since BTC hit a record high in February and consolidated at a high level, the miner reserves have fallen sharply in the past few months. Jiaolian uses a red arrow in the figure to indicate the direction of the reserve reduction.
What does this mean? The problem is that many miners expect the halving in April to have a financial impact on their BTC mining operations. After the halving, mining costs will rise sharply, turning profitable mining into an irreversible loss.
As a result, miners have been selling off their BTC reserves to hedge the financial impact of the halving of BTC production.
Many miners even felt that there was no hope of turning losses into profits, so they cut their losses and left the market, changing careers.
I heard from Jiaolian that after the output was halved, the average production cost of BTC has risen to about 60,000 US dollars.
In other words, miners with high efficiency and costs below $60,000 can still survive, while miners with low efficiency and costs above $60,000 can either use the dollars obtained from selling BTC reserves to hold on for a while or exit the market.
However, the market has to consolidate sideways and continue to reach its limit in order to consume miners.
The "beauty" (and "cruelness" for miners) of PoW (proof of work) used by BTC is that PoW continuously consumes the cash flow of miners, forcing them to sell their accumulated BTC reserves at all costs. Obviously, other consensus protocols such as PoS do not have such "efficacy".
The greatest significance of forcing miners to sell at the "bottom" is to squeeze the miners' excess profits as much as possible and return them to general operating profits, thereby avoiding miners charging unfair "coinage tax" to the market.
Therefore, the “miner bottom” is a cruel moment of survival of the fittest for miners, but for those who hoard BTC, it is a beautiful moment to buy the dips at a low price.
Good and bad, beauty and ugliness, good and evil, strong and weak, have always been two sides of the same coin, inseparable.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
