After Bitcoin dropped to a low of $60,055 last Saturday, it continued to fluctuate in a narrow range around $61,000. However, it continued to rise after breaking through $62,000 at 6:00 a.m. today (the 1st), reaching a high of $63,800. As of the time of writing, it fell back to $62,794, a 3.84% increase in the past 24 hours. The long order near 60,700 given by Daxian in the article on Saturday (29th) successfully made a profit of 1,300 points at 62,000.
Although it is the first day of July, Bitcoin has shown a long-awaited increase, but it will take time to observe whether the trend has reversed. Next, I have sorted out several key issues that may bring fluctuations to the market this week.
On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which will further analyze the attitudes of officials. However, the attitudes of most officials have clearly become more conservative in recent months, so it is estimated that there will not be much fluctuation.
Non-farm payrolls data will be released on Friday evening U.S. time. Economists predict that the unemployment rate may remain at 4%, and the average hourly wage is expected to grow by 3.9% from June last year, the smallest annual increase in three years.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the price is currently fluctuating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Band. The upper and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band form the resistance and support levels of the price respectively. The current price is close to the middle track, indicating that the market may consolidate or slightly correct in the short term. If the price breaks through the upper track and continues to rise, there may be further room for growth; if it falls below the middle track, it may move closer to the lower track.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current K-line value and D-line value are both above 70, indicating an overbought state. The J-line value is currently around 80, but there are signs of starting to go down. This means that the market may be in an overbought state and there may be pressure for a pullback in the short term.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are running above the 0 axis, and the DIF line has just crossed the DEA line from top to bottom to form a death cross, which is a bearish signal, indicating that the market may have a correction. The MACD red bar chart is gradually shortening, which also supports the view that there may be a correction in the short term.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the price has just fallen back from the upper track of the Bollinger Band to near the middle track. The price is currently fluctuating slightly above the middle track, indicating that the market may be in a period of adjustment in the short term. If the price can stay above the middle track and rise again, it is possible to test the resistance of the upper track again; if it falls below the middle track, it may further test the support of the lower track.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value are both below 30, indicating that the market is currently in an oversold state and there may be a chance of rebound. However, it should be noted that the J-line value has begun to rebound upward, and the K-line value and the D-line value also show signs of forming a golden cross, which is a buy signal, and there may be a certain rebound in the short term.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are still running above the 0 axis, but the DIF line has crossed the DEA line from top to bottom, forming a death cross, which is a bearish signal. In addition, the MACD green bar chart is gradually growing, which indicates that the downward momentum is still strong.
Comprehensive analysis: The current 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows that there may be a pullback in the short term. The price fluctuates near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, the KDJ indicator shows overbought, the MACD indicator forms a death cross and the histogram becomes shorter. These signals together point to the possibility of a short-term pullback pressure in the market. The current 1-hour chart of Bitcoin shows that the market may be in a consolidation or a small rebound in the short term. The price in the Bollinger Bands indicator fluctuates near the middle track, the KDJ indicator shows oversold and has signs of a golden cross, the MACD indicator forms a death cross, and the green histogram gradually grows, which indicates that there will be a small rebound in the short term and then continue to fall.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Short sell Bitcoin when it short to around 63200, target 62200-61650, defense 63700.
Writing time: (2024-07-01, 22:00)
