Written by: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
The market once again received strong support from the short-term investor profit and loss line, but to get out of this round of volatile weak market, an effective breakthrough may be needed
Market Week
After BTC fell all the way to $58,400 last week, the trading volume was effectively increased and gained strong support. After a four-day rebound, it gradually approached the $64,000 mark. Coinbase's weekly trading volume increased by 31% month-on-month. The market followed the trend and formed the second largest chip accumulation point of 479,000 BTC at $61,000. The first chip accumulation point was $16,000, which is where this round of bull market started.
Once again, the short-term investor breakeven support was validated. The eMerge engine shows that after a short-term loss liquidation, the market is at the bottom of the mid-line. However, the market needs to continue to work hard to return to the latest breakeven point of $64,400.
A further test point is the $66,000 shutdown price of mainstream US miners that we have repeatedly mentioned. If the results pass these two barriers, the price of BTC is expected to return to the big bull market rhythm in March. When it plummeted to $58,400 last week, market sentiment also quickly fell to an "extreme panic" state, with the panic index reaching 31. But even so, the adjustment of BTC prices from the high point is only 20%, but after 16 weeks of shrinking "high-level shocks", market confidence has been greatly impacted. Some pessimists even asked whether this round of bull market has ended?
We tend to believe that the market is in the second half of the mid-term clearing. If the time is extended to a one-year cycle, several key factors, such as interest rate cuts and structural positive factors of the US election, are still certain. As we mentioned in the previous weekly report, in the short term, people may overestimate the momentum of US and Hong Kong spot ETFs: institutions account for only 22% (and most of them are hedge funds), and real long-term investors have not yet come in. But in the long run, people seriously underestimate the significance of ETF exposure.
What about the bigger picture? Last week, the far-right party won the first French parliamentary election. Before that, the far-right also won the European Parliament election. In the United States, Mr. "America First" Trump seems to be getting closer to moving into the White House for the second time; right-wing forces are rising widely around the world. Their common characteristics are that they reject global trade and cooperation externally and brew populist trends internally.
The world has entered an era of rupture and turmoil under the background of the Cold War and local hot wars. This is the historic window period for Bitcoin to truly leap to the throne of the world's major safe-haven asset.
Supply and demand structure
The outflow of US dollar stablecoins exceeded $650 million last week, reversing the inflow of the previous week. The holdings of long-term investors increased by 20,000 coins last week. However, the holdings of coins on exchanges increased by 20,000 coins to 2.967 million coins, indicating a slight increase in short-term selling pressure.
As for ETFs, after a net outflow of 175 million last Monday, the remaining four days were all small inflows, with an overall outflow of 38 million US dollars for the week. Overall, the liquidity of ETFs is also in a quasi-frozen state, and the scale has shrunk significantly compared with the daily inflows of hundreds of millions of US dollars in March and April.
In terms of contract data that are more sensitive to short-term prices, whether it is the volume of open contracts, rates or volatility, they are all at a relatively low level in the past six months, indicating that the market may be brewing a new direction.
On-chain data
The on-chain data showed abnormal changes, and the full-week data was active. New addresses, active entities, and calculations all rebounded, and the number of new addresses on the 7th showed a rebound trend. There was no significant change in the on-chain transfer fee.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator
Like last week, the EMC BTC Cycle bullish indicator is 0.125, and the market is still in a bullish dormant period.
END
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