After BTC fell all the way to $58,400 last week, the trading volume was effectively increased and gained strong support. After 4 days of rebound, it gradually approached the $64,000 mark. Coinbase's weekly trading volume increased by 31% month-on-month. The market followed the trend and formed the second largest chip accumulation point of 479,000 BTC at $61,000. The first chip accumulation point is $16,000, which is where this round of bull market started.
Once again, the short-term investor breakeven support was validated. After a short-term loss liquidation, the market is at the bottom of the mid-line. However, the market still needs to work hard to return to the latest breakeven point of $64,400.
For more information, please visit Weibo Tuantuan Finance here .
A further test point is the repeatedly mentioned $66,000 shutdown price of mainstream mining machines for US miners. If the results pass these two barriers, the price of BTC is expected to return to the big bull market rhythm in March. When it plummeted to $58,400 last week, market sentiment also quickly fell to a state of "extreme panic", with the panic index reaching 31. But even so, the adjustment of BTC price from the high point is only 20%, but after 16 weeks of shrinking "high-level shocks", market confidence has been greatly impacted. Some pessimists even asked whether this round of bull market has ended.
I tend to believe that the market is in the second half of a mid-term clearing phase. Extending the time frame to one year, several key factors, such as interest rate cuts and structural positive factors from the US election, remain solid.
In the short term, people may overestimate the momentum of spot ETFs in the United States and Hong Kong: institutions account for only 22% (most of which are hedge funds), and real long-term investors have not yet come in. But in the long run, people seriously underestimate the significance of ETF exposure.
What about the bigger picture? Last week, the far-right won the first French parliamentary election. Before that, the far-right also won the European Parliament election. In the United States, Trump seems to be getting closer to moving into the White House for the second time. Around the world, right-wing forces are rising widely. Their common characteristics are that they reject global trade and cooperation externally and brew populist trends internally.
The world has entered an era of rupture and turmoil under the background of the Cold War and local hot wars. This is the historic window period for Bitcoin to truly leap to the throne of the world's major safe-haven asset.
Supply and demand structure
The outflow of USD stablecoins exceeded $650 million last week, reversing the inflow of the previous week. The holdings of long-term investors increased by 20,000 coins last week. However, the holdings of coins on exchanges increased by 20,000 coins to 2.967 million coins, indicating a slight increase in short-term selling pressure.
As for ETFs, after a net outflow of 175 million last Monday, the remaining four days were all weak inflows, with an overall outflow of 38 million US dollars for the week. Overall, the liquidity of ETFs is also in a quasi-frozen state, and the scale has shrunk significantly compared with the daily inflows of hundreds of millions of US dollars in March and April.
In terms of contract data that are more sensitive to short-term prices, whether it is the volume of open contracts, rates or volatility, they are all at a relatively low level in the past six months, indicating that the market may be brewing a new direction.
The on-chain data showed abnormal changes, and the full-week data was active. New addresses, active entities, and calculations all rebounded, and the number of new addresses on the 7th showed a rebound trend. There was no significant change in the on-chain transfer fee.
Subsequent Views
In the past two days of the rebound, BTC in the exchange continued to flow in. It seems that there are many big investors who want to take advantage of the rebound to sell their coins and run away. Binance has added more than 3,000 BTC in one day. Stablecoins in the exchange continue to flow out, and the motivation to buy in pursuit of rising prices is not strong. The funds flowing into the ETF yesterday were less than $100 million, and the purchasing power was average.
At 9:30 tonight, Fed Powell will give a speech, which will cause some market shocks.
The manufacturing PMI released yesterday was lower than expected, which is good news. Next, we will pay attention to the ADP employment data released at 20:15 tomorrow.
I think the possibility of a sharp drop in Bitcoin is very small (although retail investors basically have no Bitcoin). The panic index has reached its lowest point in nearly a year in recent times, and it has reached a state of extreme panic in the past few days. The continued panic has caused more people to cut their losses and leave the market. Most people now feel that the bull market is gone, especially the copycat bull market.
At present, whether from the macro-favorable factors, policy-favorable factors, or indicators of various dimensions, the bull market is far from over. The recent unlocking information has caused a lot of negative news. I have always felt that unlocking is not the core factor affecting the trend. The trend is always affected by the market. When the market gets better, it will also pull up the market. This is the case with many altcoins in the first half of the year. The market has been bad in the past few months, so it will fall even if it is not unlocked. Not all coins will be sold after unlocking, but retail investors will be immediately let off. Therefore, we see that the coins unlocked on the same day will fall sharply. I think at least half of them are the chips thrown away by retail investors.
The number and amount of capital of retail investors holding copycat stocks in this round far exceeds any other cycle. After several months of major cleansing of copycat stocks, many people are now experiencing an explosion of negative emotions. Everyone feels bad about the decline in the market.
The current response strategy: hold positions below 50%, and consider whether to increase positions after the release of non-farm data on Friday and the Mentougou incident. There is nothing to watch in the current market, so the main thing is to "wait".
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the crypto to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment or private TTZS6308. All information platforms are Tuanzi Finance .
I plan to accept five more one-on-one classes at the end, but I won’t accept any more. To be honest, I can’t handle too many. After all, my energy is limited.
Currently, there are basically no good opportunities for retail investors to get on board BTC. The focus is to lay out high-quality copycats in the later stage and strive to achieve an overall return of no less than 10 times this year.
