U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks last night, saying he was satisfied with the progress of the decline in inflation over the past year, but still hopes to see more progress before he has enough confidence to start cutting interest rates. U.S. stocks may be motivated by this. The four major indexes surged on the 3rd, and the Nikkei Index also hit a new high; but at the same time, the currency market fell in the opposite direction, with Bitcoin reaching its lowest level before noon at around $60,660, and all the gains that started last weekend have been given back.
Many whale appeared to destroy the market
At the time of the downturn in the currency market, many whale began to appear on the market. According to on-chain analyst Ember's monitoring , after the 19-4 document of the Ethereum spot ETF was approved at the end of May, the purchase of ETH and ETH ecological related Token whale/institutions transferred a variety of ETH ecological tokens worth US$11.57 million to Binance for sale in the past hour, causing these tokens to fall to varying degrees, including:
- 3.514 million LDOs ($6.23 million)
- 49,700 AAVE ($449)
- 319,800 FXS ($85).
Ember analysis shows that the whale is obviously betting that the Ethereum spot ETF news can drive ETH-related ecological tokens to rise, so it bought multiple tokens worth tens of millions of U. Now he is selling all these ETH ecological tokens at a loss with "no profit". This is giving up and stopping the loss.
According to monitoring by The Data Nerd, when FLOKIplunged more than 30% in the past month, an early FLOKI investor transferred 6.28 billion FLOKI (approximately US$1.1 million) to Binance yesterday for suspected sale.
At the same time, according to Spoton chain monitoring , the early buyer of PEPE dimethyltryptamine.eth has not traded PEPE in the past 10 months, but there was a change in its address this morning, selling 10 billion PEPE (approximately 32.73 ETH). US$112,000),
As an early buyer of PEPE, dimethyltryptamine.eth completed the feat of turning $45,000 into $26.7 million. The performance was an astonishing +58600%. After selling 10 billion PEPE this morning, the whale still holds 1.99 trillion pieces. PEPE (approximately $21.9 million).
Why does the currency market continue to be depressed?
While Power made dovish remarks and stock markets in the United States, Japan, Taiwan and other countries continued to hit record highs, the currency market continued to slump, which puzzled many people. There may be three major reasons for this phenomenon. The first is the When will the Ethereum spot ETF be approved and how much new funds will it bring? Market opinions are mixed.
The second is that under the wave of AI, speculative hot money is more inclined to pour into the stock market rather than the currency market. Youwei Yang, chief economist of BIT Mining, recently pointed out that there is only a certain amount of hot money in the market, and now that this hot money is invested in the field of AI, until there are some convincing narratives or constructive progress in cryptocurrency, it may only continue to be sideways. market, waiting for a major market impact.
The third concern is that Bitcoin is facing huge selling pressure. The bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox announced last month that it would start the Bitcoin repayment process and repay 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH to creditors since July. It is expected to be completed this year. The repayment process was completed before October, and at the same time, the U.S. and German governments transferred a large amount of previously seized Bitcoin to exchanges at the end of June, which caused market concerns.
Has this bull market peaked?
Although most of the market still believes that the bull market is not over yet, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that the current indicators on multiple chains show that the price of Bitcoin shows "signs of weakness" and that the current bull market of Bitcoin may have peaked. He listed three major Key reasons pointed out:
1. The inflation rate of long-term holders is close to the critical value: The inflation rate of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) is rising steadily, approaching the critical value of 2.0, which usually represents a high possibility of hitting a top in the market cycle. The current value is 1.9, indicating increasing market pressure.
2. Bitcoin dormant traffic indicator rises: The dormant traffic indicator has risen sharply in the past 3 months, highlighting the dormant addresses that have transferred Bitcoin this year. The number of transferred Bitcoins has surged. This indicator has reached a peak, which usually indicates that the top of the cycle is approaching. , and the current top structure is similar to that of 2017 and 2021. 
3. Surge in spending: The amount of Bitcoin spent between 7 and 10 years ago, that is, the number of on-chain transfers, suddenly increased sharply. A large number of Bitcoins were transferred on the chain, which indicated that the risk had arrived. There were 138,000 Bitcoins. The coin was moved on May 28, possibly leading to a sell-off.
Charles Edwards believes that more than $9 billion in Bitcoin was transferred from addresses that have been held for more than 10 years, partly related to Mt. Gox’s preparation to repay creditors, which may increase selling pressure, but he still believes that given the multiple compensation options, Mt. Gox's selling pressure is still expected to be relieved.
