After the market crashed due to the war situation in April, not long after that, the market once again ushered in a "darkest moment" - according to OKX market data, Bitcoin once fell to $5,3296, a drop of nearly 10% in 24 hours. %; Ethereum once fell to $2,806, a drop of more than 10% in 24 hours. Such a huge decline is not only affected by news such as Mt. Gox's multi-billion debt compensation and the German government's continuous transfer of Bitcoin addresses, but also due to the fact that the price of Bitcoin has repeatedly exceeded the shutdown price of miners and enterprises, and the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs It is also related to the fact that some Bitcoin and Ethereum whale have been liquidated one after another.
In view of this, Odaily Odaily will summarize the opinions of some research institutions and individuals in this article for readers’ reference.
10xResearch: What should you do when the Bitcoin crash is underway?
As the broader market fell further, the well-known research institution 10x Research once again issued an article saying "I told you (I told you long ago)". The following is a compiled version of its content:
Market performance once again proves that 10x Research is the only major research company to predict a price collapse (Odaily note: of course, this is a usual boastful expression of 10x) - we made a decline prediction when the Bitcoin price triggered $67,300. estimate. Even after the weekend's "Trump effect" (Odaily note: refers to the small rise of Trump concepts and related political Meme coins relative to the market due to Trump's better performance in the US election debate), we also warned that this rebound is not possible We continued and reiterated our estimated target prices for Bitcoin at US$55,000 and US$50,000 - the current spot trading price of Bitcoin is US$54,000, which has fallen by 20% compared to when we issued the warning signal.
Before Ethereum fell below $3,725, we mentioned in the report that the market may undergo a cascading liquidation, causing its price to fall back to the previous price level that was raised in anticipation of the ETF. These liquidations didn't have to wait long, with futures open interest falling sharply last night. Since the relevant report was released on June 7, Ethereum has fallen 22% and is currently trading at around $2,900.
It is worth warning that now is not the time to rush to buy the dips, but the time to sit back and let the bears continue to perform.
At the same time, I believe many readers have been prepared for this sell-off before, and while we prefer bull markets, sometimes locking in high profits is the right strategy.
There is always an opportunity to make money in the crypto market, and our investment approach proves once again that price movements are predictable and you can make money whether prices are rising or falling. Our research has been at the forefront of this decline. (Odaily note: 10x tone, you know).
Crypto Analyst: Mixed joys and sorrows with a bit of stubbornness that refuses to admit defeat
From the perspective of market cycles, crypto analyst Rekt Capital said in this analysis, “In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak on the 518th day after the halving; in the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin The price peak is reached on the 546th day after the halving. If history repeats itself, the price peak of the next bull market will occur on the 518th-546th day after the halving, which means that Bitcoin may be in mid-September or October 2025. A new price peak was reached in the middle of the month. Previously, Bitcoin accelerated to 260 days in this cycle. However, due to the recent consolidation phase of more than 3 months, its acceleration rate has dropped sharply and is now around 150 days. , Bitcoin will maintain a longer-term consolidation state after halving, and the effect of re-synchronizing with the traditional halving cycle will be better.”
On the other hand, looking at the long- and short-term holder structure of Bitcoin, Cauê Oliveira, BlockTrends research director and on-chain analyst, wrote that novice investors are getting into trouble and losing money. During the decline, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin (purchased in the last 3-6 months) was sold during the price decline. These selling pressures come from individuals or organizations who bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. This group of people may want to use Bitcoin spot ETFs to speculate through events such as the Bitcoin halving, but now they may have no choice but to get out. They may be classified as "long-term holders," but they actually behave more like short-term investors because they entered the market at the beginning of the year (at a relatively high level). On the other hand, individuals or organizations that have held positions for more than a year have still not made more selling operations, which shows that the real long-term holders are still continuing to HODL.
In terms of specific long and short operations and whether to buy, the well-known crypto KOL il Capo of Crypto, who once "firmly shorted" when the market rose all the way, uncharacteristically expressed his belief in "firmly holding" this time. He posted a message saying, “The market move lower has indeed been more brutal than expected. However, at this point where many are panicking and selling, I don’t think it’s appropriate to turn bearish or elect to sell now. It’s time to ‘broaden the horizon and stay calm’ . You may make mistakes temporarily, but time will tell."
Summary: Recognize the situation clearly and give up illusions
Just as Mr. Hu, a senior writer at Odaily Odaily, said in the latest market article "Mt. Gox crash is coming, BTC fell 10% in 24H and fell below US$54,000. Where is the bottom?" "The main reason for the current market decline is the shipment of Mt. Gox, but the market may have over exaggerated its impact."
Mr. Market is sometimes slow, so slow that the real information will not be fermented in the first time; but sometimes he is sensitive, so sensitive that he is like a frightened bird, thinking that there is "no way to recover" at the slightest sign of trouble. But in fact, “the most important factors affecting future market trends are the results of the U.S. election and expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.”
Therefore, for market participants, including retail investors and institutions, the best choice now may be to switch from "long-term thinking" to "short-term thinking" and do operations within 6 hours, or even 4 hours or 2 hours. I am more inclined to trend trading, rather than overly entangled in the question of "whether there is a bull market for Bitcoin and the market." There is no fixed answer.
To sum up, it is 16 words - recognize the situation clearly, give up illusions, operate short-term, and wait for the good news.
