Powell's meaning was quite clear last night, saying that decisions will be made "meeting by meeting." But this may be a sign that the rate cut will not come as soon as the market digests. There is a high probability that there will be no rate cut at the end of July, but the probability of a rate cut in September may be increasing, and the market continues to bet on a rate cut in September.
It is now estimated that the probability of a rate cut in September is about 75%. The market is slightly aggressive and the market has begun to come back. Pay attention to whether the top is around 60,000 during the day and whether the key position of the retracement will fall below 58,000. If 58,000 is not broken this week, the market will return ahead of schedule. After breaking through, the market will continue to wear out.
If the CPI and PPI on Thursday and Friday this week can fall as expected, then the possibility of a rate cut in September will likely reach 90%. This will provide a two-month window for speculation on the positive effects of a rate cut, and both the U.S. stock market and the crypto will likely see a lot of good news again.
Now various companies have started a price war on fees. This situation is very similar to that before the passage of BTCETF. Ethereum has successfully reached $3,000 against the backdrop of a market rebound, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has also rebounded to 0.535.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow data restored:
On Tuesday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced strong net inflows totaling $216.33 million, marking the third consecutive day of positive investment activity in the sector. BlackRock's IBIT ETF highlighted its market dominance with net inflows of $121.03 million. Fidelity's FBTC followed closely behind with net inflows of $90.95 million.
In total, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.19 billion in trading activity on Tuesday alone, reflecting high market participation and liquidity. Since their launch in January, these ETFs have attracted a total of $15.27 billion in net inflows, indicating growing institutional and individual interest in Bitcoin as an investment asset, showing strong investor confidence in these financial products.
ETFs and interest rate cuts are the biggest positive factors driving the market in the later period. Be patient and get through this period of volatility:
The biggest driving forces for future market trends will be ETH ETF and interest rate cuts!
According to the news, Bitwise has submitted a revised S-1 for the ETF spot Eth, and stated that it is likely to be launched this month.
It is said that it is likely to be listed this month, and many people in the market also believe that it is likely to be passed at the next US summer hearing, but there is no specific and accurate information. As for interest rate cuts, the market's current biggest expectations are September and November.
There are several market assumptions:
Assumption 1: ETFs are used in July or August and interest rates are cut in September.
Then there will still be fluctuations and bottoming out in July and August (a small rise before the ETF is passed), and after the interest rate cut and the false decline, a new big market will start in October.
Assumption 2: ETFs are adopted in any month of July, August, or September, and interest rates are cut in November
Then it is highly likely that the ETF will rise slightly before it is passed, and then fall back briefly after it is passed, and then fluctuate. In September and October, a small market trend will be launched again in line with the expectation of interest rate cuts and the funds entering the ETF. After the interest rate cut in November, the market will fall back for 1 to 2 months, and a new big market trend will be launched in the first quarter of 2025.
In short, it is unwise to sell chips now. It seems that the second half of the bull market has not really arrived yet. Taking all things into consideration, there are still many opportunities in the market. From a larger scale, we are experiencing a new bottoming out stage.
Next, we have to fight against market risks and prepare for a long-term battle. We must survive at least in the second half of the year!
Don't use high-multiple contracts or leverage. Make good plans for over-the-counter leverage. Spot trading should focus on hot spots of funds and not be cross margin transactions. This will help you better resist uncertain market changes in the future.
We still don’t have much time left to wait for the second half of the bull market, just a few months, but we can wait.
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