Original title: Hot Chick
Last summer I took a trip to the “doosh doosh” (chamber music) mecca of Ibiza. It was a professional trip organized by myself and three friends. The organizer of the trip was a college classmate of mine who had been living in London since graduation. He lived for European summers and organized a fantastic trip. On the first night, my classmates invited us to a fancy private party at a villa on the island. It was like bringing Chiltern Hotel guests to the Balearics. Two of the friends lived in London and knew the people at the party, while my former Hong Kong roommate and I knew no one. We both went to the bar and started getting drunk. A few hours later, we were in a stuffy, cramped room where Carlita was playing some hot music. As we were blasting along to the music, Leonardo DiCaprio was ushered in by a pretty girl. We witnessed something hilarious. That was, Leonardo's chick was pitching him why he should take her home. We overheard snippets of the conversation, and it was hilarious. I don't know if she succeeded in hooking up with a movie star, but she tried. This story is relevant to cryptocurrencies because the Orange Man, the future emperor of the United States, suddenly cares about cryptocurrencies. And in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, a few thousand voters will decide the US presidential election. Appealing to the young voters, the politically active, and the newly rich crypto class could win Trump the election. So Trump is boosting his pro-cryptocurrency credibility by saying all the right things. For example, he announced that he would pardon Ross Ulbricht, the former head of the Silk Road trading platform. Ross is currently serving a life sentence in prison for running an online platform that used Bitcoin as the main payment method. Unfortunately, this focus on Trump’s election has affected many in the industry. Political influencers are looking to take us home. This perception is wrong. Invisible hotties are not movie stars, but rather idiots on the fringes of the party. I am frustrated that many crypto experts who should know better are now blindly hosting gimmicky fundraisers for the Trump campaign. They mistakenly believe that Trump is sincere and that if they just donate enough money, the "kill crypto operation" will go away. This is nonsense. Trump is a savvy politician. He will do whatever he wants no matter who is re-elected. Once in office, anything to do with crypto will be a distant memory. How can pro-crypto voters in the U.S. capitalize on the need for swing votes from both the Democratic and Republican teams? Is there a way to turn the roughly 50 million American adults who hold cryptocurrencies into a single-issue voting bloc? Is there a strategy that doesn't require campaign contributions and still ensures that positive crypto legislation is enacted before the election? Of course there is. But it won't be easy. Before I get into my own strategic thinking, I want to ask readers to analyze Malcolm X’s prophetic speech, which I will use as a foil to illustrate how oppressed American crypto voters can achieve their goals in a broken political environment. After listening to Brother Malcolm’s speech, I wanted to discuss a simple piece of legislation that crypto voters should demand that the political candidates of their choice enact into law before Election Day. It’s frustrating that crypto celebrities are working to support crypto politicians when all those politicians want to do is build a regulatory moat around Coinbase and BlackRock. If voters are going to be pro-crypto voters, then the legislation enacted in their name should actually benefit the industry as a whole and bring crypto jobs and opportunities to America. Corporate fraud should not be on the menu. Finally, I will dig into the numbers and show how single-issue voters who support cryptocurrency mathematically determine which party controls the House, the Senate, and most importantly, the presidency. Before I get into that, I want to explain why separating money from the state should be the number one issue for any voter, regardless of all the other pressing issues that may determine who to vote for. When the state and its governing bodies must regularly make demands on citizens for increased taxes, they are careful in how they make those demands, lest they get voted out of office. Many of the problems of the state stem from overactive governments using inflationary taxes to do more than is necessary. For example, it would be impossible to maintain current levels of military spending around the world if governments used direct taxes to pay for military spending, which inevitably leads to conflict. What do you want: free healthcare or more AK-47s? Free college education or a fleet of F-16 fighter jets? Affordable public transportation or another submarine armed with nuclear missiles? If it were up to the taxpayers to decide, different types of public goods would be produced, improving the quality of life for more people. I will mention Slow Joe Biden, who is the presumptive Democratic nominee. However, after his disastrous debate performance, I do not believe he will ultimately be the party's presidential nominee. Although it is "Slow Joe Biden," rather than speculating on who will replace him, it is better to simply assume that he is the nominee. Travel back with me to the 1960s in America. Black people were becoming restless and demanding political change. On April 3, 1964, Malcolm X gave a speech in Cleveland, Ohio titled "The Ballot or the Bullet." The theme of the speech was how the black community could use their power as a voting bloc to determine who would be the next president and what their loyalty should be rewarded for. At the time, incumbent President Lyndon Johnson (Democrat) was running against Barry Goldwater (Republican). Johnson won reelection. I will excerpt a few passages that are relevant to this discussion. For the record, I do not agree with everything Malcolm X said or did. Nonetheless, his observations are sharp and relevant to politically oppressed minorities, cryptocurrency holders, who want to gain political benefits in a system where simple majority rule is the norm. Malcolm begins by explaining why black people should put aside their differences and unite to achieve political goals that benefit all: “While I remain a Muslim, I am not here tonight to discuss my religious beliefs. I am not here to try to convert you to your religious beliefs. I am not here to argue or discuss any differences between us, because it is time for us to drown our differences and recognize that we would be better off first seeing that we have the same problem, a common problem, a problem that will send you to hell whether you are a Baptist, a Methodist, a Muslim, or a nationalist. Whether you are educated or uneducated, whether you live on a boulevard or in an alley, you will go to hell just like I did. We are all in the same boat, and we will all suffer the same torment from the same man. He just happens to be white. “We have all suffered from white political oppression, white economic exploitation, and white social destruction in this country.
In crypto, the maximum doesn’t matter whether you’re Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, etc. In fact, if you own Cardano, screw you ;). Most importantly, whether you’re a centralized exchange shareholder like Coinbase, or just a regular holder, you don’t need to dwell on these differences. “People”, or in this case, countries, are the same for any of Satoshi’s disciples. What are the similarities between the 1964 and 2024 elections? "1964 has the potential to be the most explosive year in American history. Why? It is also the political year zero. It is the year that all the white politicians will return to the so-called black communities to fight with you and me for votes. It is the year that all the white political charlatans will return to your communities and mine with their false promises, with their tricks and betrayals, with false promises that they do not intend to keep, to bring us the disappointment of our hopes."
2024 is an important election year in the United States. The United States is at a crossroads. Should it accept a multipolar world order, or rest on its laurels and fight off challengers economically and militarily? The next emperor will have a major impact on how the United States navigates this changing world order. With a few thousand votes set to decide the election in a handful of states, Trump and the Republicans are making small talk about cryptocurrencies. Like Malcolm in 1964, I doubt Trump's sincerity. He cares about getting elected, and he will do anything to get your vote. If Biden and the Democrats are for cryptocurrencies, Trump will be against them. It's just good politics. Malcolm then discusses why and how disenfranchised minorities wield enormous political power. "These 22 million victims are awakening. Their eyes are opening. They are beginning to see things that they only saw in the past. They are maturing politically. They are realizing that there are new political trends from coast to coast. When they see these new political trends, they are able to see that every election is so close that they have to recount the votes. In Massachusetts, they had to recount the votes to determine who will be governor. The same is true in Rhode Island and Minnesota. The same is true in many other places across the country. The same was true when Kennedy and Nixon ran for president. The votes were so close that they had to be recounted. What does this mean? It means that when white people are close and black people have their own voting bloc, they are the ones who decide who will be in the White House and who will be in the doghouse (or jail cell if you are Trump or a Trump supporter)."
According to Coinbase, 50 million Americans (20% of the population) own cryptocurrency. If this group of people voted together, they could easily decide which clown ascends to the throne. The country’s equal split between Democrats and Republicans presents a unique opportunity to secure major political concessions. It’s important to recognize that prioritizing party affiliation over Satoshi Nakamoto is a recipe for defeat. Malcolm went on to rail against symbolism. We should heed this warning. American crypto holders should not settle for some meaningless government post from either the Biden or Trump administration. The only thing that is acceptable is pro-crypto legislation being signed into law. “They get all the black votes, and when they get the votes, the black people get nothing in return. When they get to Washington, all they do is give big black people big jobs. Those big black people don’t need big jobs, they already have jobs. That’s a disguise, that’s a subterfuge, that’s a betrayal, that’s a whitewash.”
I strongly encourage readers to read the entire speech. Just keep in mind the racial, economic, and political context in which Malcolm X spoke. I used his black-on-white rhetoric as a foil to illustrate my point that tens of millions of cryptocurrency holders in the United States can wrest favorable policies from the state if they so choose, because the politicians’ greatest desire is to get re-elected. For those who think that immediate substantive progress will take too long or be too difficult, remember the moral gymnastics that American politicians are currently doing to continue to fund Israel’s war against Hamas. The world is watching in real time as “Bedouin Butcher” Netanyahu perpetrates a genocide against defenseless Palestinian civilians because he hopes to eradicate the ideology of Hamas and its thousands of fighters – the sworn enemies of the State of Israel. Regardless of personal views, no American politician is willing to stand up for human life if it means angering the powerful Israel lobby, which, with its deep pockets, can run negative ad after negative ad that reduces a politician’s chances of reelection. The primary goal of any politician is to get re-elected, and in the capital of the empire, this drive for self-preservation is even stronger because of the wealth that comes with being a long-term congressman or senator. Consider House Representative Nancy Pelosi. I looked up her official publicly disclosed net worth through ChatGPT and learned the following. In 1987, when Pelosi joined Congress, she disclosed an estimated net worth of $3.64 million. By 2023, her disclosed estimated net worth capped at $97.7 million, a nearly 27-fold increase. ChatGPT estimates that she earned $5.7 million in salary as a member of Congress during her 37-year tenure. Most of her wealth comes from her savvy investments in the stock and real estate markets. Given that the House and Senate allow elected members to engage in insider trading, it's no wonder she can trade better than Stevie Cohen. Pelosi is a living embodiment of the political dreams of the American ruling class. As a public servant, she has accumulated wealth for generations. Is it any wonder that a politician will say anything to please you in order to keep his position? Malcolm X has alluded to the power that cryptocurrency holders hold as a political minority in a divisive electoral environment, so what should we be excited about? Money can be dirty fiat, heavy gold, or glorious Bitcoin, but what is its essence? The purpose of money is to transfer energy across time and space through physical or digital forms of communication. Lynn Alden's "Ledger Theory of Money" is a good way to think about "what money is." Understanding blockchain from first principles can make this concept more vivid. A blockchain is simply a sequence of information that has been cryptographically hashed and linked together in order to form a publicly readable ledger. With Bitcoin, we can read and write to this public ledger. Bitcoin is digital speech. Here’s another example that illustrates this concept in terms that many readers will have some familiarity with. Services like TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, etc. all allow you to read and write to a central database service that contains information about you and other users. This information takes the form of video or text content. These platforms also support digital voice. In most liberal democratic societies, governments consider information posted and consumed on social media platforms to be protected speech. This makes it a reality that users can speak freely without any government interference. Furthermore, the companies that provide these services are not responsible for the speech on their platforms. Let’s take the example of Facebook during the 2016 US presidential election. The Democratic team claimed that the evil Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had undermined “democracy” by using Facebook to influence people to vote for Donald Trump. In their view, Trump was a petty tyrant. Therefore, Facebook condoned treason and its CEO should be criminally liable for the actions of a foreign country on its platform. However, this did not happen; Facebook and its executives suffered no consequences due to free speech laws.
If the internet and the information contained within it are protected speech, then why should Bitcoin and other blockchain-powered cryptocurrencies or tokens be treated differently? Both utilize speech to provide a service. The fact that Bitcoin is a monetary instrument does not mean that it is not constitutionally protected from government interference. This is an interpretation of a document written two centuries ago, when steam engines were a new technology. Yet in the United States, this is how the Constitution is analyzed. The Second Amendment gives citizens the right to bear arms. In the 18th century, the most advanced weapon was a flintlock rifle. In modern times, the gun lobby and many Supreme Court decisions in the United States have interpreted this to mean that you have the right to carry an automatic assault rifle. Absurdity is the rule of the game in the land of the free. Let me offer a simple statement to realign cryptocurrency policy to comply with free speech: “Cryptocurrencies and tokens that reside on or are powered by a blockchain are protected forms of speech. All applicable laws protecting free speech apply to cryptocurrency users or intermediaries. Any laws or regulations restricting a person or formally established entity from holding or transferring cryptocurrency do not apply.”
That’s all we need to get complete clarity on the regulatory status of cryptocurrencies. Let’s explore what the practical implications would be if such a law were passed. If this simple bill becomes law, it will have a profound impact on how various regulatory agencies treat cryptocurrencies. Questions will circulate endlessly about whether this or that alphabet agency has jurisdiction over cryptocurrency-related conduct. The only way to clarify the lines is to establish legal precedent through adversarial, public court cases. That’s the way it should be. Judges appointed to adjudicate laws passed by elected representatives will determine the scope of free speech in crypto. But in the process, America will become the best place to be “crypto.” Using cryptocurrencies might mean opening your own exchange, creating a new DeFi protocol, building decentralized infrastructure, or pooling money for investing or trading. It means permissionless innovation. The kind of innovation that Pax Americana diehards miss. Did John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, or Henry Ford beg government officials to revolutionize the oil, steel, or auto industries? Fuck no, they just got the job done, building entire industries and industrial processes that put agrarian America on the path to becoming an empire. For the politicians who voted to make all this happen, it means taking credit for creating high-paying jobs. It means using their privileged position on subcommittees to buy up shares in publicly traded cryptocurrency exchanges and miners, thereby making themselves as well-off as Congresswoman Pelosi. If they want to engage in insider trading, at least they can do it while cryptocurrency businesses are exploding. It sounds like these are happy days for crypto players and politicians alike. Is anyone upset by these developments? TradFi would be upset if crypto was considered protected speech, but fiat was not. Their lobbyists would do their best to block any such crypto free speech legislation. So I invite them to join us on this journey. A slew of financial regulations have been enacted over the decades not to protect consumers but to politically justify the bureaucrats from the various bailouts that have been given to the financial industry. After every crisis, politicians need to appear to be doing something and impose more pointless rules and regulations on TradFi institutions. Fiat currencies such as dollar bills and commodity currencies such as gold should also be considered forms of free speech and protected as such. As mentioned earlier, both forms of currency convey who owns how much energy in time and space. There should be an equal, level playing field between all forms of currency. Let's modify the proposed bill slightly: “Any form of currency, such as government-issued currency, precious metals like gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies and tokens that reside on or are powered by a blockchain, are protected forms of free speech. All laws that apply to cryptocurrency users or intermediaries do not apply. Any laws or regulations that restrict a person or formally established entity from holding or transferring cryptocurrency do not apply.”
But there is a problem. Since most financial regulators will be rendered ineffective, fractional reserve banking and other highly leveraged TradFi intermediaries can engage in highly risky activities. All government financial bailout programs should be eliminated to reduce costs to the public. Let's amend the bill again: “Money in any form, including government-issued currency, precious metals such as gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies and tokens located on or powered by a blockchain, are forms of protected speech. All applicable laws protecting free speech apply to cryptocurrency users or intermediaries. Any laws or regulations restricting the ability of a person or formally constituted entity to hold or transfer cryptocurrency do not apply.
No public funds may be used in any way, shape, or form to bail out any financial institution. No public financial institution, (comprehensive list of all relevant entities) may receive any funding from the federal government.”
The government should not guarantee any amount of bank deposits. Instead, it should force banks to put fiat currencies on a public blockchain, making triple-entry accounting possible. If all fiat currencies run on a public cryptographic ledger, potential depositors can verify the health of any financial institution in real time. Neither the central bank nor any other public financial institution, such as residential mortgage policy banks (like Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac), will be allowed to receive any funds from the central government if they go bankrupt. The central bank can print money at will, but if losses cause all of its equity to be depleted, the central bank will fail. This will erode public trust in fiat money, but the purpose is to ensure that all financial institutions, both public and private, have their own funds and cannot use public funds in times of difficulty. The Opposition — Crypto Crony Capitalism Another voice of opposition comes from within. Many American companies and individuals with large private crypto business interests hope to use this opportunity to promote legislation to build regulatory moats for their own businesses. If these "Uncle Toms" are found to be involved in such transactions, their customers will publicly slam them. No one should support any cryptocurrency business that uses the political process to enrich its own crypto business at the expense of collective financial freedom. Of course there are. If you steal or commit fraud, you are breaking the law. If you post false statements on the internet with the intent to deceive others for personal gain, you will be punished. The same is true for cryptocurrency. The industry does not need any new laws to punish behavior that is already illegal. The best time to get concrete results is before the November election. The bill I introduced is only 113 words. It’s short for a reason. It’s easy to understand and anyone can read it in a few minutes. That means every elected representative can digest it immediately, and it’s less likely to be hijacked by the henchmen of a highly paid lobbyist. The bill needs sponsors in Congress and the Senate to bring it to their respective chambers for discussion and, ultimately, a vote. Crypto lobby groups can co-opt several politicians in each chamber who are all nervously running for reelection. Their message: Sponsor this bill, and the crypto voters in your district will support you. Once the bill is in place, it’s time to pressure Democrats and Republicans to support it. The carrot and the stick apply: support the bill, and the crypto voters in your district will vote for you; if you don’t, they’ll vote for your opponent. Finally, Slow Joe has to sign the bill into law, assuming it has passed the House and Senate. Voters do not have to limit their votes for congressmen, senators, and presidents to one party. So voters can vote for a Republican congressman or senator in their district who supports the bill, or they can vote for Biden for president, even if Biden is a Democrat. This is more effective than hoping that Trump will keep his word on various pro-crypto policy proposals, as this bill could become law in a matter of weeks. Look at how quickly lawmakers acted when approving more weapons for Ukraine and Israel. When they are driven by their own self-interest, meaning their defense industry stock portfolios, things magically happen at breakneck speed. After the election, pro-crypto voters lost all leverage. The next election is still two years away, mostly involving members of Congress who serve two-year terms. Biden or Trump won’t spend the same political capital supporting cryptocurrency policy because it won’t directly affect their reelection chances or the majority of elected officials in their respective parties. Remember, the drumbeat of war will intensify after the election. The only reason the US and NATO haven’t targeted Iran and Russia more directly is that Biden doesn’t want oil prices to rise before Election Day. Trump assassinated Qassem Soleimani, a key IRGC general, during his first term. He will not hesitate to bomb Iran at Israel’s request. To sum up, questions about cryptocurrency freedom will soon be forgotten once the bombs are flying. It’s nice to dream, but is it possible to become a reality? Using ChatGPT, I created a model to analyze the ability of single-issue voters who support cryptocurrency to decide congressional, senate, and presidential elections. The biggest assumption is that every one of the 50 million adults who hold cryptocurrency is registered to vote and is a single-issue voter who supports cryptocurrency.
Voters who own cryptocurrencies are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
The 2024 voter turnout was 69.40%, which is comparable to the 2020 voter turnout. I used 2020 because that was the last presidential election year.
Since Coinbase does not provide detailed data on the number of cryptocurrency holders in each state, I will allocate voters to each state in proportion to the number of registered voters in the 2020 presidential election.
Finally, I assume that voters voted along party lines in previous elections. That is, I only look at voters who cross party lines in the 2024 election. For example, if a Democrat beats a Republican by 1,000 votes in the 2022 congressional elections, I only look at registered crypto-holding Democrats voting for Republicans in order to flip the odds in the 2024 election.
The Democrats control the presidency and the Senate. Clearly, they want to maintain control of the presidency at all costs, which gives them enormous control over various branches of the U.S. government. The message from the Democratic leadership is simple: enact this pro-crypto legislation, or the pro-crypto lobby will give the Republicans control of all three branches of government. If the Democrats get involved, then the pro-crypto lobby will be able to hand all three branches of government to the Democrats. Since Democrats do not control the House, several at-risk Republican members (four to be exact) had to be threatened with expulsion if they did not cross party lines to vote for the bill. Is this mathematically possible? Yes, let's look at the numbers. ChatGPT provided me with the results of every congressional race in 2022. I tallied the votes for the first and second place winners in each district, as well as their respective political parties. There are 48 seats held by Republicans, and if every Republican cryptocurrency holder in these races crosses party lines, then those seats could potentially flip to Democrats. That way, the House of Representatives would tilt in favor of the Democrats. Compared to the term of office of members of Congress, the term of office of senators is six years. Therefore, I asked ChatGPT to provide the results of the 2018 Senate election. Senators elected in 2018 must run for re-election this year. There are nine seats held by Republicans, and assuming every Republican cryptocurrency holder in those races crosses party lines, those seats could potentially flip to Democrats. This would expand the Democratic majority currently in the Senate. ChatGPT gave me the state-by-state election results for 2020. Each state has a certain number of electoral college votes, and a presidential candidate needs 270 to win. If all Republican cryptocurrency holders in a handful of states voted across party lines, 115 electoral college votes would go to the Democratic nominee. This would guarantee Biden a win. If you are interested in my models and supporting data, please contact me; I will be happy to provide them. The hard work is not raising money from wealthy American crypto holders. Not a penny can be donated to political campaigns. The hard work is convincing the vast majority of crypto holders to become single-issue voters and go to the polls. That’s where the millions of dollars raised by various pro-crypto lobbying groups should be spent. If Brian Armstrong really wants to be an advocate for pro-crypto legislation, as many of the articles touting his political activities describe, then he should collect digital signatures from Coinbase US users in support of the proposed legislation. That way, politicians will know that cryptocurrency holders are serious about wanting to effect change in an organized way. What I'm saying is not easy, and more importantly, it's not about the amount of campaign contributions. It's about incentivizing crypto holders to hold their elected representatives accountable to effecting meaningful change. Doing this hard thing means that any politician who wants to get into Washington, DC can't cross over to crypto, because they know crypto holders will come out and vote. Some readers may think this article is an attempt to poison Trump supporters who support cryptocurrencies. I am not a member of any political party and do not care who wins the US presidential election. The ruling party has the means and motivation to stay in power at all costs. This is especially true if the ruling party does questionable things in order to prevent the opposition from taking power. This is why it is more effective to work with the Democrats. If the situation were the other way around, I would advocate supporting the Republicans. The point is that in a highly polarized two-party system, partisanship is not conducive to achieving your single policy goal. If crypto voters in the U.S. can pass a simple but far-reaching piece of pro-crypto legislation, it will be widely publicized, and thus politically activate crypto holders in other jurisdictions where a small, vocal, and focused minority voting bloc can achieve legislative outcomes. Look at how quickly the Hong Kong and London stock exchanges launched or plan to launch Bitcoin spot traded funds (ETFs) after the US ETFs. Nation-state competition is our friend. Suppose there is a serious effort to take advantage of this unique historical moment to push through a transformative, simple, and effective pro-cryptocurrency legislation in the US. In that case, non-Americans should lend a hand to the cause. Helping the cause means shaming the individuals and companies that propose legislation that reeks of crypto crony capitalism. Helping the cause means analyzing and providing feedback on serious proposals. Helping the cause means demanding that those who claim to support crypto in the U.S. politically not accept empty platitudes from politicians seeking reelection, but instead demand concrete action before the vote. Finally, helping the cause means organizing a similar effort in your country if it is a representative democracy with highly polarized political parties and no single party holding an overwhelming majority. Over a year ago, I wrote an article about creating synthetic dollars using long Bitcoin and short perpetual swaps. Ethena took that article as inspiration, added their flair to the idea, and built the fastest growing stablecoin ever. They did the hard work, and it wasn’t easy. They were so successful that my inbox is flooded with founders proposing the next “Ethena killer.” I don't think the ideas presented in this article are truly original. However, I hope that by publishing this article, many people in the industry will read it and it will prompt progressive, savvy political operators to act now. Don't waste this opportunity. Because if they do, the hot chicks at the party will go visit another guy. And come November 6th, the loyal voters will have their backs against the wall, watching the world pass them by.
