The latest U.S. employment data weakened, increasing the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. However, the market weighed the political uncertainty and the sell-off of large technology stocks. The main U.S. stock index closed in the black, with the Dow Jones falling more than 530 points. The trend of cryptocurrencies is relatively stable, with Bitcoin falling back below 64K, and Ethereum stabilizing above 3,400 due to the news that the Ethereum spot ETF is about to be listed.
( Ethereum spot ETF fees are disclosed and are expected to be officially launched on 7/23 )
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ToggleU.S. job market softens
The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor yesterday (7/18) showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week hit the largest increase since early May, while the number of continuous claims for unemployment benefits also increased significantly, further proving that the job market is softening.
In the week ending July 13, the adjusted number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States was 243,000, far exceeding market expectations of 229,000 and a significant increase of 20,000 from the revised previous value of 223,000.
The number of weekly jobless claims in the United States climbed, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest level since 2021. The slowdown in the job market and the recent cooling of inflation have further supported market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. According to CME Group FedWatch, investors believe that the probability of a rate cut in September is as high as 98.1%, and the probability of another one-digit rate cut in November and December has also slightly increased.
Biden may drop out of the race
Calls for Biden to withdraw from the race have grown since the disastrous debate three weeks ago. According to a CNBC report, donors have decreased and donations can no longer meet the needs of its aggressively expanded campaign three months before the presidential election.
Although Biden repeatedly emphasized after the debate that he would run to the end, he had previously said that he might consider withdrawing if health conditions arise. A few days ago, Biden tested positive for the new coronavirus and has returned to his villa to recuperate and did not participate in scheduled campaign events.
According to multiple people close to Biden, the president’s attitude toward stepping down has shifted.
TSMC once again delivered impressive results
TSMC ADR rose 0.39% after TSMC said it would once again deliver impressive results and was optimistic about the prospects of AI and smartphones in the future. In response to former U.S. President Trump's previous remarks such as "Taiwan is stealing the chip market" and "should pay protection fees," Chairman Wei Zhejia also responded at the press conference that TSMC's overseas layout plans will not change as a result.
However, large technology stocks are still under pressure. While expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, market funds are turning to small stocks that are more sensitive to interest rates.
