Trump has chosen his running mate for the 2024 presidential election: Ohio Senator JD Vance.
The attitudes of these two Republican candidates towards crypto assets have attracted particular attention in the crypto circle.
I have talked about Trump's attitude towards crypto assets in an earlier article: Perhaps because of "the butt determines the head" - he himself is a beneficiary of crypto assets, his attitude towards crypto assets has taken a 180-degree turn in recent years, from opposing Bitcoin to now fully supporting crypto assets, and even opening a donation channel for crypto assets.
In the past few months, he has also frequently met with important participants in the US crypto ecosystem. In particular, I was deeply impressed by his speech when he met with major US Bitcoin miners last month:
The gist of his speech was: Make sure the remaining bitcoins are in the hands of Americans.
Perhaps there is a certain deviation in his understanding of the operating principles of Bitcoin. I guess what he really wants to express is: he hopes that the remaining bitcoins are mined by American miners, and hopes that the United States will at least be the dominant force in the Bitcoin mining industry.
On the one hand, these words clearly have a competitive connotation, expressing that he does not want the United States to fall behind any other country in the competition in the field of crypto assets; on the other hand, they also make it clear what impact his election would have on the industry.
Putting aside possible deviations in understanding, for an 80-year-old man to have such an understanding of an emerging technology and such an attitude towards an emerging industry, he has already far surpassed many people in his position.
What about his deputy, Vance?
In my opinion, he is a real believer in crypto assets.
According to information published online, 6% of his personal investments are in Bitcoin, which is a practical vote for crypto assets.
His remarks on crypto assets in 2022 are even more interesting.
That year, the Canadian government froze the bank accounts of a group of truck drivers who were participating in a protest in Ottawa. In response, he posted (roughly): This is why cryptocurrencies are booming, if you have the wrong political views, the government will cut off your access to banking services.
In my opinion, this passage has the same meaning as what Xxiao said (roughly speaking): "Bitcoin is the first time in human history that the sanctity and inviolability of private property has been realized."
It is remarkable that someone who is not in the full-time crypto industry can have such an understanding of crypto assets. It is much higher than those who still think that crypto assets are CX.
In addition, he has many other specific words and deeds that are friendly to crypto assets, such as strongly criticizing the current SEC chairman for being too politicized in his regulation of crypto assets.
In short, whether from the perspective of personal interests or from the perspective of thinking cognition, if these two are elected, the US encryption industry will usher in far-reaching and substantial benefits.
In the past two days, after the Fed Chairman's speech, Wall Street's confidence in the Fed's possibility of a rate cut in September has greatly increased. The US stock market continues to rise.
However, there is one thing worth noting during this period of growth: the gains of the Nasdaq and S&P are much smaller than those of the Dow Jones.
In my opinion, this means that interest rate cuts may benefit traditional industries far more than the technology industry.
I mentioned in this online discussion that American technology companies are now mainly relying on direct financing, so the impact of interest rates on them does not seem to be very obvious. However, many traditional industries probably still rely on indirect financing or bond issuance, so they are more affected by interest rates.
In fact, the growth of U.S. stocks in recent years is mainly driven by technology stocks, while other industries have generally performed sluggishly.
If the interest rate cut greatly eases the pressure on other industries, perhaps other industries will perform better than the technology industry in the next stage and continue to drive the US stock market, which will in turn benefit crypto assets.
In short, all the above factors make me believe that the crypto market will get better in the second half of this year and into next year, and we will definitely see the sun tomorrow.
