Dehydrated poster: BTC ecosystem needs a new way out

Highlights of this issue :

1. Ethereum’s circulating supply surges

2. Trump Meme Coin is difficult to reach consensus

1.qinbafrank (@qinbafrank): Even if the monetary easing is carried out, it will be limited.

Regarding limited easing:

In 2020, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited quantitative easing due to the black swan of the epidemic. The memory it left on the market is so strong that the market is now looking forward to the Fed's massive money printing after this rate cut.

But looking back at the four QEs of the Fed since 2008, QE1 in 2008, QE2 in 2010, QE3 in 2012 and QE4 in 2020. Only QE4 in 2020 was unlimited, while QE2 in 2010 due to the European debt crisis and QE3 in 2012 due to the short-term economic weakness were both capped, QE2 should be 500 billion to 600 billion US dollars, and QE3 is less than 1 trillion US dollars.

Back to the present and the next one or two years, the Fed should cut interest rates several times, but an interest rate of more than 3% may also be the norm in the future (this is also the case of the upward shift of the neutral interest rate mentioned by Powell last week). Moreover, if the economy is only weakening, without a major recession and large-scale liquidity shock, it is still uncertain whether the Fed will resume QE (it is not that the balance sheet will be expanded immediately after the interest rate cut is started after shrinking the balance sheet). If there is a shock, the scale of QE5 again may also be capped. Then the probability of zero interest rate + unlimited QE in 2020-21 will be very small, and it is more likely to be an interest rate of about 3.5% + capped QE (whether it will or not depends on the specific situation)

In this sense, I personally think that in the next one or two years, the baseline scenario will be more of a limited easing state. We should also think about how various assets will perform and what state the market will present under this limited easing scenario.

My humble opinion: Differentiation and structured markets may still emerge, and the market breadth will also partially expand from extreme concentration to a small number of targets that have both certainty and growth potential.

2.0xsea.eth (@_0xsea_): BTC ecosystem needs a new way out

The on-chain liquidity of BTC ecosystem assets has dried up to a new low. The 24h on-chain transaction volume of BRC-20 is less than 1M, the transaction volume of Runes is 1.37M, and the transaction volume of Atomicals is negligible... All of these combined are not as good as a small on-chain meme on ETH and SOL. Ordi has a transaction volume of 39M on Binance, a transaction volume of 165M for sats, a transaction volume of 12M for Dog on Gate, and 7M for Pizza. The difference is several orders of magnitude, and the liquidity still depends on CEX.

Compared with technological innovation, liquidity is the foundation of this market. Everyone comes here to buy lottery tickets and bet on the size of the lottery.

The entire "BTC ecosystem" narrative is facing a test, and the entire sector has not yet been fully verified by the market. The model of issuing coins - mining coins - selling coins has been played for two rounds, and there is an urgent need for more innovative or more Ponzi-like gameplay. Will there be one? Who? Where?

3. Crypto_Painter (@CryptoPainter_X): Sharing trading ideas

BTC has a downward channel at the 1h level and has not yet broken through. The short-term correction target will be around the green demand zone below 62,600;

If the demand zone support is effective, the price will eventually break out of the descending channel and test the supply zone above 65,000;

If the demand zone support is invalid, the price will fall below the left low to form a Lower Low, and a small-level trend reversal will occur. It is highly likely that a larger downward channel will be formed, and the callback target will continue the 2-3 level demand zone below, which are 58500 and 56800 respectively;

Trading ideas:

As for the short-term thinking of bulls, since this wave of rebound was fast, there was no effective shock consolidation in the middle, which resulted in sparse accumulation of chips in the area below 62,300. If the price unfortunately falls below 62,300, we need to be careful of the potential gate market;

Before that, long against 62,300 and breaking the stop loss will be a relatively high short-term profit and loss idea. If you are very optimistic about the subsequent bullish market, you can also intervene in a more aggressive long order after the upper downward trend line breaks through and steps back, betting that 65,000 will be directly broken through and continue the previous bullish trend;

Short sellers may not have good trading entry opportunities in the short term. If the price is effectively supported in the first-level demand zone, there will be a rebound that breaks through the descending channel. After the small-level descending channel is broken, you can try to short against the 65,000 supply zone.

Another short idea is that if the price falls below 62,300 and enters a weekend consolidation state with reduced volume, then observe whether the price can return to the original first-level demand area before Monday. If it fails, you can short at 62,300 and break through the downward channel to stop loss.

Note: All short-term trading ideas are for reference only, not investment and trading advice. Please make decisions based on your own judgment. The expected path will most likely differ from the actual situation, so there is no need to bring in subjective assumptions.

Embers: Most of the large amounts of altcoins stolen by WazirX hackers have been sold

Among the assets stolen by the WazirX hacker, several major altcoins have been sold: 5.4337 trillion SHIB ($96.32M), only 2700 trillion ($4.78M) remain unsold, 20.5 million MATIC ($11.12M), 640.2 billion PEPE ($7.65M), etc. have all been sold. Currently, the number of ETH held by the WazirX hacker has reached 56,813 ($197.64M), and only altcoins worth $25.29M have not been sold.

According to Coinmarketcap data, the top five currencies in terms of 24-hour popularity are: BTC, PIXFI, ANDY, PEIPEI, and NOT. According to Coingecko data, in the crypto market, the top five sectors with the highest growth are: Metaverse, Memes, Circle Ventures Portfolio, BullPerks Launchpad, and Atomicals Ecosystem.

Hot Spot Focus——The last wave of panic is coming, and the Ethereum bull market may start from October

With the German government's liquidation sell-off coming to an end and Mt.Gox compensation officially starting, this article predicts that the last wave of large sell-offs will be around the corner, but there is no need to worry too much. This article previously predicted the trend of Bitcoin in July, and it is still valid at present.

The German government is more like an "outsider" and has no special obsession or belief in Bitcoin. For such confiscated property, its value may have been an excess return, so it stepped up its selling before Mt.Gox paid out. Unlike the German government, Mt.Gox's compensation targets are mainly retail investors, and it is unlikely that it will sell all at once, but it is expected that there will be continuous selling pressure as Bitcoin rises, and the most significant selling pressure is expected to be when most people receive Bitcoin for the first time. This is just as the author predicted before, which is expected to occur in late July to early August; at the same time, the market is also playing out the previously predicted "poor May, desperate June, and turnaround in July".

The Ethereum ETF is just one step away from going online, and it is likely to start trading next week. On July 16, the Wall Street Journal revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) told asset management companies that the spot Ethereum ETF may be launched on July 23. After asset management companies submit the last round of filings this week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to announce the effectiveness of the Ethereum ETF registration statement next Monday. Once the statement takes effect, the spot Ethereum ETF can begin trading.

In March 2024, Ethereum carried out the Dencun upgrade, which significantly reduced the L2 transaction costs, and its impact on the entire Ethereum ecosystem is huge. Ethereum's next major upgrade, Pectra, has also attracted market attention and may be more important than Dencun. According to official Ethereum news, Pectra is scheduled to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025. If the launch of the Ethereum ETF opened the door for Ethereum to enter the traditional financial market, then the upgrade of Pectra will truly begin to attract traditional financial capital into Ethereum, thereby boosting the rapid growth of Ethereum's value.

Overall, the German government's selling pressure has ended, Mt.Gox has paid more than half of its compensation, and the compensation funds have begun to be distributed to retail investors. The last major selling pressure is expected to come in late July. Unlike government behavior, retail investors' collective large-scale selling pressure will not continue. Therefore, this article believes that Bitcoin will continue to strengthen in a bullish pattern in the future. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has become a hot topic in the US election. Trump has clearly expressed his support, which will attract a lot of traffic to Bitcoin, thereby pushing up Bitcoin. In addition, the Federal Reserve has a dovish view on the macro level. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, which will also provide a favorable macro environment for Bitcoin.

The rise of Bitcoin is also a positive for Ethereum, but with the approval of the Ethereum ETF, Grayscale's ETHE is expected to see short-term profit-taking selling pressure. In addition, the amount of institutional funds flowing into Ethereum before October was relatively limited, which had a relatively limited impact on the rise of Ethereum. With the end of the US election and the upcoming Pectra upgrade, Ethereum's technical strength will attract more and more institutional investors, and its capital inflow will also increase significantly. Ethereum is expected to gradually explode in the fourth quarter.

@Abiodun Oladokun: Ethereum circulating supply surges

Last month, 58,680 Ether (ETH) entered circulation, worth more than $198 million at current market prices.

This brings the Altcoin’s circulating supply to its highest level in eight months, at 120.22 million ETH.

The circulating supply of an asset refers to the number of tokens currently available for public use. It does not include tokens that are locked, reserved, or otherwise unavailable for trading.

On April 11, ETH’s circulating supply fell to a year-to-date low of 120.07 million. However, as network user activity declined, the reduction in burns led to an increase in the amount of ETH circulating in the market.

Ethereum Circulating Supply

When user activity on the network decreases, the circulating supply of ETH rises. On-chain data from IntoTheBlock confirms that this is indeed the case for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks.

For example, the number of unique addresses that completed at least one Altcoin transaction fell by 13% over the past week, which has led to a decrease in the number of transactions executed daily on Ethereum.

Ethereum Active Addresses

The decline in Ethereum user activity is reflected in a drop in the total value locked (TVL) across the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem and a drop in sales in the non-fungible token (NFT) space.

Ethereum’s DeFi TVL has plunged 7% over the past month to $58.96 billion, according to DefiLlama. During the same period, sales in its NFT vertical have plunged 43%, according to CryptoSlam.

Cycle Capital: Trump Meme Coin is Hard to Build Consensus

Since the attack, Trump's chances of winning have further increased, and the US election theme meme has turned into a Trump-themed meme. The relevant tokens all rose to varying degrees on the day of the attack, and the incident also spawned more memes. This article will update the recent situation and price performance of the main Trump-themed tokens.

FIGHT (Fight to Maga) is a meme of the same name that appeared on Solana and Ethereum chains after Trump was shot and shouted "Fight" to his supporters to express his determination to run for office. Currently, Fight on Ethereum is available on centralized exchanges such as Gate.io, HTX, Lbank and Poloniex, while Fight on Solana is available on exchanges such as MEXC and XT.com. Overall, Fight on Ethereum has better resources and is relatively sustainable. The incident also gave rise to tokens such as EAR and FEAR NOT, but the consensus is weak.

TRUMP (Maga), the eponymous token of Trump, is currently the meme with the highest market value within the theme, and has performed relatively poorly recently.

MAGA (Maga Hat) is the abbreviation of Make America Great Again (Trump's 2016 campaign slogan), and its logo is Trump's iconic red hat. The team announced a partnership with DWF Labs on June 19, but disagreements arose internally on July 14. Maga's Official Twitter(@MagaHAT_ETH) announced that founder FUD (@WhaleFUD) had withdrawn from the team, while WhaleFUD tweeted that it was not a voluntary withdrawal. Subsequently, WhaleFud continued to sell MAGA through DEXs such as uniswap and 1inch, and the MAGA tokens in the marked address have been cleared. After a dispute with the original team, WhaleFud began to promote a series of Trump-themed small-cap tokens, including #MARRON (Trump's son's name), #MAPE (Maga Pepe), #HAIR, etc. Currently, the largest non-stable currency holding at its address is MAPE.

PEOPLE (ConstitutionDAO), established in November 2021 for the purpose of purchasing an original copy of the U.S. Constitution, has no direct relationship with Trump himself, but is the most relevant and liquid meme on the Binance exchange related to U.S. politics. The official Twitter account has no marketing tied to the U.S. election and ceased operations in February 2024.

Subsequent speculation: This sector presents and may continue to maintain the characteristics of relatively dispersed funds, easy to divert attention, and fast hype. The funds of TRUMP tokens with the same name are dispersed by tokens such as Super Trump and Baby Trump. WhaleFud led fans to escape maga, and multiple tokens with the same name compete on various chains, which all show the characteristics of this sector. Based on Trump's good use of the media and marketing, it is speculated that there is a possibility that more meme tokens will be spawned by Trump's remarks and new political slogans, making it difficult for a token to unify the community consensus. ️