Exchange-traded funds tied to Ethereum's ether (ETH) could begin trading as early as Tuesday.
The debut has been much expected by traders looking for a new market “narrative.” But the exact impact is hard to predict. Here are four things to watch for.
Price impact?
What will the ether ETF do to the price of the underlying asset? What about the price of bitcoin? What about the rest of the cryptocurrency market?
Since the spot bitcoin ETF commenced trading in the U.S. in January, bitcoin has jumped 56% and ether 38%.
Should we expect the same type of price shock from the ether ETF? Will ether go up? Will bitcoin too? Will other cryptocurrencies follow suit?
Adoption increase?
When the ether ETF begins trading, more traditional-type investors may get price exposure to ether, but will their financial buy-in do anything to spur on adoption of the Ethereum network?
The ETFs will undoubtedly bring validity to the asset in the eyes of traditional investors. But is there a straight (or even curved) line from a financial advisor buying the ether ETF in an IRA for a client to the advisor eventually staking their ether to the advisor buying the latest and greatest ERC-20 memecoin?
I think that’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it as, anecdotally, I find that people care about price first, and second, and third, and foremost.
What of the SEC?
I expected cryptocurrencies to be shoved into ETFs because the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) always thought these assets were securities, and there are plenty of ETFs filled with securities. Nonetheless, the SEC has been outright combative toward crypto. Will that change with the ether ETF?
The SEC did just recently drop their case against Consensys after the Ethereum software company sued the SEC in April, alleging that the regulator was investigating whether Ethereum, post-Merge, might be a security. So maybe we’ll see an environment where the SEC stops meddling. That, or maybe the ETF makes it even more clear that ether is in fact a security and SEC tightens the screws.
What is the investor base for the ether ETF?
In general, fans of Ethereum are more crypto polytheists than fans of Bitcoin are, supporting a “multi-chain future.” And so, while I suspect there to be overlap of investor bases for the bitcoin ETF and the ether ETF, I’m not sure what to make of the average ether ETF investor.
Are we getting family offices and hedge funds looking for asymmetric gains? Old school financial advisors looking to somehow combat inflation? Degenerate 25 year olds trying to make huge gains so they can retire early and travel the world while they still have their youth? Is this the ether ETF strictly for institutional play while retail investors will stick to holding their ether in Coinbase or Robinhood?
And who will lead the pack from the issuer side? Will BlackRock reign as the capital inflow leader with the ether ETF too?
Probably, and whether this is bad or good is a story time will tell starting Tuesday.
Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.
