Odaily星球日报讯 CME 美联储观察数据显示： 美联储 8 月维持利率不变的概率为 93.3%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 6.7%。 美联储到 9 月维持利率不变的概率为 0%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 89.6%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 10.2%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 0.3%。

Odaily星球日报讯 CME 美联储观察数据显示：美联储 8 月维持利率不变的概率为 93.3%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 6.7%。美联储到 9 月维持利率不变的概率为 0%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 89.6%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 10.2%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 0.3%。

美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为89.6%

Odaily Odaily News CME Federal Reserve Observation Data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 89.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 10.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 89.6%.

Odaily Odaily News: Societe Generale analyzed that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September, but any depreciation of the US dollar will be limited. The bank's foreign exchange strategists said that the rebound of the US dollar in 2021-2022 provides ample room for downward corrections, but unless the US economy slows much more than expected, it is "very unlikely" that US interest rates will be close to the level before the outbreak of the 2020 new crown epidemic. They said the biggest fluctuation should be the US dollar against the yen, which may fall from the current 156.197 to 140 in early 2025. The yen is the currency hardest hit by rising US interest rates and yields. They said that sometime in 2024 or 2025, the euro may rise to 1.15 against the US dollar from the current 1.0850. (Jinshi)

Societe Generale: The Fed may start cutting interest rates in September, but it will not cause a significant depreciation of the dollar

Odaily Odaily News: The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, marking the second consecutive rate cut and in line with market expectations. (Jinshi)

Bank of Canada cuts interest rates by 25 basis points

Odaily Odaily News: Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report that the upcoming U.S. economic data may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will enter a rapid rate cut cycle in the coming months, but this is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the dollar. The first rate cut in September is now almost fully digested by the market, and the market believes that there is a high probability of two more rate cuts before the end of the year. If the U.S. second-quarter economic growth data released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditure index released on Friday support these expectations, the dollar's reaction will be suppressed. Praefcke said: "However, if these data cast a shadow on market expectations, I expect (the dollar) to have a more obvious trend." (Jinshi)