Original | Liu Jiaolian
BTC continued its correction overnight, falling all the way back to below 66k.
In the United States, the Democratic Party changed its leader at the last minute, and Harris took the stage with a laugh. The latest polls show that she is evenly matched with the popular Trump, and there is even a possibility of a comeback.
It's not that Harris is really that good, but the Democratic Party's ability to manipulate the market is really amazing. In this way, Trump, who survived the disaster, will have to add some variables to his already held quota for admission. After all, didn't Reagan, who was assassinated, also lose the qualification for admission? Therefore, the positive interpretation of Trump by the crypto market was suppressed.
If Harris really reverses the election situation again, defeats Trump, and becomes the US president, then the plot of the cartoon "The Simpsons" will really become a divine prophecy.
However, the good news is that Harris' campaign team will also attend the " Bitcoin 2024 Conference" this weekend. Some netizens joked that if Harris preemptively announced that if she was elected, she would promote the inclusion of BTC in the US national strategic reserve. Wouldn't it be interesting? Take the opponent's path and leave the opponent with no way to go. Haha.
In Japan, KrakenFX CEO posted that the distribution of BTC and BCH to the victims of Mt.Gox has been completed.
Judging from the on-chain data, the BTC address distributed this time is exactly the address mentioned in [7.17 Teaching Chain Internal Reference], and its balance decreased from 43,000 on July 23 to 0 on July 24.
These 43,000 BTC should come from a batch split from the Mt.Gox total asset pool on July 17. There are currently more than 90,000 BTC left in the pool.
How big of an impact will Mt.Gox’s compensation distribution have on the market?
Let's review the process and market reaction of the German government selling off nearly 50,000 BTC in late June and early July. At that time, the market was in a state with almost no interference factors, which was an excellent observation sample.
As can be seen from the above figure, BTC began to peak and turn down more than 10 days before the German government's sell-off, reacting in advance. The local high point on June 6-7 before the decline was around 72k. This reflects the fact that the financial market will react in advance to future news.
When BTC hit a local bottom of 53k on July 5, the government was actually just cautiously selling its stocks and had not yet had time to sell them in large quantities. It can be seen that the market will try to let the sellers sell at a lower price.
When the German government finally started to liquidate its positions on a large scale on July 8, BTC only pulled back twice to 54k, and then began to rebound sharply as the German government completed its liquidation.
In fact, when the bottom hit 53k on July 5, the market had already fully priced in Defu's liquidation.
From 72k to 53k, it was a retreat of about 20,000 dollars, which was cut by more than 1/4.
From this perspective, the market has already reacted to Mt.Gox's distribution in advance, as the price turned down after reaching a local high of 68k on July 22.
Only a very rough estimate: the German government sold from 72k to 53k, with an average of 62.5k, multiplied by 50,000 BTC, and the market's pressure purchasing power to absorb this additional selling pressure is about 3.125 billion dollars. This time, the 43,000 BTC distributed by Kraken has been digested, and it has retreated from 68k to 65k, with an average of 66.5k, and the multiplication results in a selling pressure of 2.86 billion dollars.
If there are no other unexpected factors, the depth of this callback will not be lower than the 53k sold by the German government. There are three reasons: first, the total amount of 43,000 is nearly 15% less than 50,000; second, the starting point of the callback is 68k, which is lower than 72k, which has less overdraft on the market funds; third, the positions after this distribution are more dispersed and the selling pressure is more even.
However, according to previous announcements, the remaining 90,000 BTC of Mt.Gox will be distributed in succession, and the selling pressure will continue until the end of October. It is estimated that a total of 4.6 billion dollars of selling pressure will be released to the market. These have been reported and calculated in a series of internal reference articles of Jiaolian in the past four months, so this article will not repeat them.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
