Original | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜Nan Zhi ( @Assassin_Malvo )
Recently, the difficulty of Meme transactions in the Solana ecosystem has gradually increased, and the number of "large MC memecoin" has decreased. However, in such an environment, there are still a group of "smart wallets" that are still making huge profits. Which addresses are still "printing money", what are their transaction characteristics, and what indicators are the key to success ?
In this article, Odaily sorted out the top holding addresses of 27 popular and large-cap Meme tokens and summarized their data, totaling 1,080 wallet addresses, to answer the above questions. Among them:
Market capitalization: greater than $1 million, including a few tokens with more than $10 million (rocky) and more than $100 million (BILLY);
Top addresses: The top 40 holding addresses of each token, each of which has a profit of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the corresponding token;
Data source: mainly from GMGN , some win rate data from cielo .
Preprocessing and Score Algorithm
This section describes in detail the sample processing method, statistical dimensions, and scoring algorithm. Readers who only want to know the conclusion can go directly to the next chapter .
Preprocessing
The following processing was performed on the top 1080 wallet addresses
LP addresses and exchange addresses (such as Matcha, Gate.io, etc.) are removed;
Removed duplicate addresses (the same address became the front row of multiple high-market-cap tokens);
Addresses that have never purchased any tokens in 30 days are removed;
Addresses with an absolute profit of less than $10 in 30 days were removed (due to a large conflict with the subsequent evaluation system, they are not included for the time being);
Addresses whose winning rates cannot be counted by GMGN and cielo are not included for the time being.
After processing, there are 541 wallet addresses left, which are evaluated by the following dimensions:
Statistical Dimensions
The wallets are evaluated based on winning rate, stability, and profitability, and the scores are calculated based on the following six dimensions:
30-day wallet win rate;
The average of the number of purchases to the profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day number of purchases);
The average of the number of sales to the profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day number of sales);
Total profit amount;
The absolute value of the top three profits as a percentage of the total profit (the higher the percentage, the more unstable the profit and the lower the score. It is also possible that a single token has a lot of profit, while the rest are all losses, and the total profit is very low, resulting in a high ratio);
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit (the higher the percentage, the greater the drawdown and the lower the score);
Score calculation method
Here, Z-Score (i.e. standard score) is used to calculate the score. Each of the above six indicators will be distributed in the interval [0, 1] after calculation using Z-Score, so the highest score will be 6 points.
Who is making huge profits?
After processing and calculation using the above method, the highest score is 4.85 points. This address has only traded 42 times in the past 30 days, with a winning rate of 100%, a profit of 106,000 US dollars in 30 days, and a total profit of 436,000 US dollars. The three largest losses added up to only 8,000 US dollars.
The lowest score is 1.1 points. This address has traded 29 times in 30 days, with a win rate of 0% and a loss of $38,000 in 30 days. The highlight is the three largest profits totaling $40,000, but the three largest losses totaled $38,000.
Top 10 Features
The average of the top ten addresses with the highest comprehensive scores is calculated, and the data is as follows:
30-day wallet win rate: 63.55% (the average of the next 90 is 63.58%)
Average profit per purchase: $4,717 per purchase (average of the next 90 purchases is $623)
Average profit per sale: $4,090 per sale (average of the next 90 is $628)
Total profit amount: $980,000 (the average of the next 90 is $279,000);
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit share: 90.8% (the average of the next 90 is 90.67%)
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profits: 11.07% (the average of the next 90 is 11.62%)
It can be concluded that the strength of the top 100 players is almost the same, and the top 10 masters only have a slight advantage in retracement control. When other data are almost the same, the difference between the addresses ranked 11-100 in indicators 2 and 3 is mainly because the amount of each purchase is relatively small, so the score is lower.
The top ten addresses are:
6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz
6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU
4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT
9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf
GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi
DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm
FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j
69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9
7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ
4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t
What is the gap between 101st and 200th place?
The average wallet data of users with scores from 101st to 200th are as follows:
30-day wallet win rate: 45%
Average profit from purchases: $317
Mean profit from sales: $425
Total profit amount: $129,000
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit share: 145%
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 25%
It can be seen that there are considerable gaps in the six dimensions, among which the most obvious gaps are indicator 2 "the average of the number of purchases to the profit" and indicator 6 "the proportion of losses" , which may mean that when the winning rate is insufficient, people are more keen to buy, resulting in insufficient profits and amplified drawdowns.
What did the ten worst players do?
30-day wallet win rate: 17%
Mean value of purchases to profit: -$10,797
Mean profit from sales: -$23,547
Total profit amount: -$146,000
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit ratio: 2092%
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 642%
It is worth noting that among the ten addresses with the lowest scores, three addresses had the largest three profits of US$694,000, US$403,000, and US$150,000 respectively, but their final total profits were very low.
What is the key to success?
In trading, it is often difficult to take into account multiple indicators such as win rate, profit and loss ratio, and drawdown. What aspects should we focus on to most effectively increase the net value growth of our account in Meme trading?
The Pearson correlation coefficient is used here to statistically analyze the relationship between multiple indicators and the final score. The conclusions are as follows:
Win rate has the strongest correlation with score (0.610), which shows that Solana's meme is still a fast PvP battlefield, and maintaining win rate is more important than maintaining profit and loss ratio (Diamond Hand failed).
The second strongest correlation is the maximum loss ratio (-0.495), which shows that controlling drawdown is also a key factor. Traders need to control their positions or stop losses in time (those who like to All In may join the worst ten-person package).
The correlation coefficients between other indicators and scores all belong to the “weak correlation category”.
The number of shots is completely unrelated to the score, which means that whether you are pumping a lot or occasionally, the results are basically the same (which may mean that most pump.fun token participation is just rolling the dice, which ultimately conforms to the law of large numbers).
in conclusion
To sum up, in Solana Meme's PvP battlefield, escaping quickly and losing less are the keys to victory.
Odaily reminds that Meme investing is risky and this article is for reference only. Investors should decide on their own the specific investment targets and styles.
Appendix (Top 100 Smart Money Addresses)
6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz
6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU
4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT
9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf
GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi
DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm
FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j
69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9
7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ
4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t
5wPWthsivjuGi43WbTo5LdSjDTJ8pXSSHyfXWVojJjUF
27nKnCT3DD5NLJw3xbq3KDL3thx6KTe6DmrRCbi2uszE
2zc9rfAQybucpfQxdgW9otWBFnqxDoz5Fva1vD2wmaha
6HRZ8qLqmAuJ3anksqAEHLqwN7akoCU1ZjihQyoQbK64
ENRayX3P4At1eBj87TZJvZT1JVCAykwwYB5SjKT6Y2ZA
D49JMtrnenWigKNWxrACtyXfybZLjKsufXvdcD1ng8BA
DVFpA1mKBWSEuyuiWXQEdrhkyZ8mSPM2Fe7y1KhbbqxT
7HUpxcqNkUF2sGsNcTPMTWTVXok9mUiG8QcRJHM61jys
8deJ9xeUvXSJwicYptA9mHsU2rN2pDx37KWzkDkEXhU6
CeoqFgsd6sob3S1Ka7qDnXj1e76MweXx2cwUrjVqmRmv
6p8cxa2G17qaJf4LnoioyQ2vjmfaY91hc2cYghQiovXf
9NmtJ6MpuH8mzNnbQHvwaVpKbs3T51nr6VMFRTshNCMS
8r5Y6gRPBLoiT4jSGgpMwPPn4PitdSuKqDGPUx2aU5Wh
79CmfobG1sLjUZRyT9nUzfwy5xcJuWETMqTMVxFqNFwh
6AtHTM75tnpvazEwMBmd2spbxcQFTBqrNxNKUvTWxUMp
A4vCNjNJxs6UxsHT99oNkNZaoLBBYS7ZF4RwaPwZ7PKp
8yJFWmVTQq69p6VJxGwpzW7ii7c5J9GRAtHCNMMQPydj
EKWkKPRGEQzTHW32j7i4hbtzoW6s3ZGAfL7T8RkSvrhJ
FfCmMs68EYGkd3mnMf7T7uLRxEh5z1cY7TVpqawQxCEF
HbzEtahBdLk61kCP9wgqEecvP5oebFaqWHCANJupYM8Q
Ffb9SFFAFgBhiEU1XUj3r4JEz5Rva7SUfEAJWFinpUau
Eb5u4wu1bjjyeytxiuatuqNGGQLFFHjcW9rLeTiGzrMf
HS8BjVNAT4m36hLnD3GZvc74Y8iMVkx7pYhiMSDv1pWm
AVAZvHLR2PcWpDf8BXY4rVxNHYRBytycHkcB5z5QNXYm
12L63BUpPKi8ZDdD1Kj5dsyPcozjAc1vTQpVwLbBa19H
6YQSZp2mnp8BUMyMkT7MPg33YHXtnJVBPvS8wNStiF6H
9ru9BSVFSUqSRQFwdjjnkzQGf9yUdpRTjpjXPKc4BvxX
4mbEf27m7XVGSuFpiAQiRxCyX5Epu2qd2gevY2joPmQk
Cgzgw9agWXSJPHPWXFoM4W5iKeUi1dNVREfq5u86XMKx
ExCsisSuZuXmnuPMNVUiR7zTejfN3kmZdVidSExQE1vc
BrFcBzjdb6iWgnogjaDws8CxnB6ApWtacCtUtsgzEHCf
9oTsfYWULoX9V9X1xJosKquiv2RUxia6XTLZHn6aa5BN
5mta8pCqi2Zm3kFWLyMXseZtAFpHd5m2vHLh7N7hWyqX
3kebnKw7cPdSkLRfiMEALyZJGZ4wdiSRvmoN4rD1yPzV
8Ga6pH8cpxspHEeF9Q3nc6BTgHCxnMwMJvvvecErLux7
Bgm3tCLEcUQweuDcYARyoXioLCQQ3pdMYLMoneKdKP2m
9vuf62XM3nf1TqceYYfd5RUawZ1rvmVYJJRmhc5e9Lgt
HiJ46Rrgdx7hmsgaibmi9LEM7U5nsHmVD22rngwk4Udc
7UiWFNRmbwFph7247WTzfxGHqELDigqpsiysb3y3tKQf
E8hK8YbE8iBPywf4Q9TahgAT42Az2jgJL6uCHcpkP196
ARGivPcb6uapd5N3EFMAzpWDZ4wRxriMH1kkdeFHYUvS
5cN5vAuXpRfE56QJTKFxw7m3UkuVVcZMjTwGb2DQZkrG
DKwybycDSWidrHfpMjaahUsT1Yid3kig86ncXPAGe7AU
EceAXcGP69ZKCnXougTSpuHoGrLZT7e9hkxXmDPx8Qcd
GYGazbafxrSffoFF6xPUwVmqnV8CziwkD89KijUorhHi
H6azfrDwWFmQav8UMLiofEi73q6uZVv9geNqpy6VQXV9
ErG9AkyQQvf7j8rha71dtba2zxqmEfPfc819TMzAbnWk
B4M9RqyTF9jF5Zb8ZG9ZeLkvWXCeKMAq6TdE9L4NqUr2
HkiCryXaSgvYPHenUv2YYfcoYd8HcNgUUDKZdScpyP6Z
99qwBygWc1nPo9AvKgLbKDXxSkdmvy5CXTNk5CWVwzGT
5B3wpkaPZAKSZpYxmyMx5xNpeRZy67WdFNGQJToziAHP
DosUh54Scj73jcPepYmiFPAzmn3oQYyd94FZqwNmBeGC
Hp7fx5PoK6jg7brkJYiQ1fdAR73fZpwtFZCuUPTY8pVg
ArSJoBSqugxk8s1ub56YENhDvHXneCnfXJujzpugkCbT
Et45ydaesDDBN1zjXA9m7iTqgatTnxL6MrMgtWNfCbuX
8A4yM724ep3dqv9GQ7Rx3B9QcV8Tjc2H1toHAnEEmAeK
JDkA2zGDoL184ZCxkETmZMUucZve3S9iCpCygK7X383m
7dMyG1PVNpqz9FpxyGAg7kkhVQmQ9zUJHwQw6RHs4vyo
Eq38QQAc2auEEoXKx2iV7sXhGzmUaVMwf2SzHmw6cg4u
7fLjm9dYn9chMXX58Au2H1p3cwoTvh3Ri3erm1bxWXk2
HF9G11htJrFUGD5cpj8t9Fks7DZ4eJy78YqmrAZquydg
4bUb5YV7zcvabHsPd7NTpvMmbdMJkTwAtvY269PjNFh8
FvTBarKFhrnhL9Q55bSJnMmAdXisayUb5u96eLejhMF9
4ZCo5NLb1KxRymHaWh341WidGF3nYqBGanhHoq4HUGaf
CuEeVczBi4ahyc6kwDodA24CzLVbk5wWUaMnL21da8Ws
8MaVa9kdt3NW4Q5HyNAm1X5LbR8PQRVDc1W8NMVK88D5
CPydqKcEEeKTR6wt3L15G8S5Ea4bxjS2vvjiW9vw1UwK
34ZEH778zL8ctkLwxxERLX5ZnUu6MuFyX9CWrs8kucMw
6CHhn9g1F7msGdekeJTtAcC6EsaEeHBCn6xz6hKpqhsQ
CMcHRygKpNG2Jx83T1cTiqAvg55mYXv6uSwjhFzLwQFc
4q7rNU1nRUWY14vaLPpzpc2C756UQE36vaDwphBpLf2s
AgMroLKUzcvHcvS79xDJmg9ZeuvReyvNxTLunyzqh1nZ
FxqnyvqQbqvfzKZ7uNgu3aFfJzD7FPYi4J7foMwYJgMu
Gb8hF3dex5XsDYMFThaCUvLQngshMJbKuU4fc9PjiVp1
6Y9shDFcKwXh16SR1hatzSsWCBQctjY8VCGbyLWY8NFp
DKgvpfttzmJqZXdavDwTxwSVkajibjzJnN2FA99dyciK
4n1pWS2RLCg4tRoWU3RCpf5YT6tP41rBDJ25TEyi5cMK
5aR9jGBLnko6YfbnC8heWhFzwtf267StEUSobN6N8Eap
9nhwAE4d2FPeRngHSvDfz4J5JqCxhAnm6xL88wnNKAbu
CVu6fpZFZMnWvQfun1yKjje3kV8L14i5knQ9PLKyzLE
62LBFpTA85Z4hHYofP79NiSozxHQWTh88MQzmFFRbgQo
GTPPYMjBbuAp4hbQTHidEMwS3Gyy34ysR4fYLRd6aPjt
2m5498hY3hpSvm1pVyZwwyU6bpQGFGu3PADSoEoZFXQB
CySCk3xgpsnkYe1B4XByg75UiHhwM8XEv5FVDCKGGdr4
HPx7GxQjaVvox8kcBvCkUKSSh4oYm4TUeB8fXG9oGuZM
HFtjJ4Ud1bn4gv1sZznBffpRDYdLK53vCLoDhm9Ks82R
28ipXVfkdmu1PDowCHbcSfzkpH9edZmSiVoDhY5xGVfR
3ZXQXrHAqNUcFgApjS9BDBkG8J14h5rxrQNAmAwqqEGH
FTKTNFqeu9wzckDzmsaL1dTgB19BK6fE6DMTHdbETtd1
Ex5UkpSmcS3zaGyYsv1GFcuRah5U8zvPxp9NBC4KCuVB
