Multiple charts suggest Bitcoin 's bull run may not be over, reports come amid general market concerns. BTC recorded an All-Time-High of $73,777 on Binance in mid-March, with multiple attempts to regain this peak having been unsuccessful.
Coupled with the recent Bitcoin price correction, the global stock market sell-off, more than $1 trillion has been wiped from the stock market, and the S&P and NASDAQ recorded their worst drops since 2022. causing the market to panic.
Also Read: VanEck predicts Bitcoin price will skyrocket to 52,380,000 USD by 2050
Why is Bitcoin's bull run still possible?
4 Charts Show Bitcoin's Bull Run Is Still Possible Despite Market Fears and BTC Move Away from its 2024 Peak.
#first. MVRV Momentum
The Market Value to Realized Value ( MVRV ) Momentum Index tracks the strength, direction, and durability of market trends. As long as this indicator (orange) is above the 365-day moving Medium (blue), Bitcoin's bullish trend will continue. Accordingly, analysts looking for this signal to increase their holdings can take advantage of price corrections to buy BTC, provided the above conditions are met.
Bitcoin's MVRV Momentum. Source: CoinbaseHowever, if MVRV falls below the 365-day Medium , it means retail investors are suffering unrealized losses. They frequently consider exiting their positions to avoid further losses.
“Early in July, the MVRV ratio pulled back and found support near the 365-day moving Medium . This occurred near the lows of the correction and suggests the 2024 bullish trend remains intact, with investor returns remaining positive,”
James Check, Lead Analyst at Glassnode, wrote.
#2. BTC ETF Inflows & New Issuance Spot ETF
Another reason Bitcoin's bull run is still intact is the demand for the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Following the decision of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve this financial instrument , institutional investors entered the BTC market along with retail investors. Demand pressure continues to drive Bitcoin price. Comparing inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETF with new supply from Miners since the financial instrument began trading on January 11 shows that demand for the ETF has outstripped supply.
BTC ETF Inflows vs. New Issuance Spot ETF. Source: CoinbaseCryptocurrency and macro finance data tracker SoSo Value shows the cumulative net worth since January 11 is $17.50 billion
#3. BTC Price Performance Since Halving
Bitcoin's price performance since the fourth halving also strengthens the argument for the feasibility of a Bull market for BTC. Looking back we see that BTC has fluctuated sideways immediately after each halving cycle before increasing significantly during the year.
- After the first Halving (orange line): Bitcoin increased over 1,000% in the first 12 months.
- After the second Halving (turquoise line), Bitcoin increased 200% in the first 12 months.
- After the third Halving (green line), Bitcoin increased by more than 600% in the first 12 months.
Since the fourth Halving (black line) on April 19, 2024, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 2%. If history repeats itself, we still have nearly nine months left to wait for BTC to discover new price levels.
Bitcoin market cycle after Halving periods. Source: Coinbase#4. Performance of asset types
Bitcoin's performance based on history also supports the possibility of strong price increases. Looking back, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset among the eight asset classes over the past 11 years. It only underperformed in 2014, 2018 and 2022, with large declines.
Bitcoin performance over the years. Source: CoinbaseThe likelihood of Bitcoin performing poorly in 2024 appears low, based on previous trends such as monthly performance. November is usually the best month for Bitcoin, and the fourth quarter is also usually strong. From 2013 to 2022, Bitcoin's Medium monthly returns were 5.91% in Q1, 32.83% in Q2, 4.21% in Q3, and 93.38% in Q4. Coinglass statistics show that Bitcoin accelerated from Q2 to Q4, with Q4 being the best quarter at 93.38%. The adjacent table also confirms this story, showing Q2, along with October and November also promising.
However, while Bitcoin's rally could take it to new heights, it could also face challenges. Regulatory developments, macroeconomic events, technological advances and market sentiment will influence its trajectory.
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