In the past week, the market fell back after a vigorous rise due to the influence of the US stock market. Has this round of rebound come to an end? Recently, although the voices of interest rate cuts in the United States have gradually increased, the US stock market seems to reflect faster.
The Ethereum spot ETF has been launched, but the inflow failed to reverse the selling pressure from Grayscale. The Ethereum price briefly experienced a stampede effect, and some Altcoin began to come under pressure.
However, supported by the positive news from the Bitcoin conference, Bitcoin continued to rise. The price of Bitcoin today is US$67,014, and the 24-hour trading volume reached US$104.21 billion, an increase of 4.32% in the past 24 hours. In the short term, the market outlook should continue to fluctuate in a weak position.
VX:ZLH1156
Macro environment
1) US technology is weak, and indicators show concerns
Google and Tesla's earnings yesterday fell short of Wall Street's high expectations. Investors may also doubt their views on artificial intelligence and whether large-scale investments will pay off as they imagine. The market is also worried about whether the United States will enter an irreversible deep recession if interest rates are not cut.
Figure 1: Gold to Copper Ratio
This month, the "copper-gold ratio" (blue line in the figure) fell by more than 8%, which is considered by the market as a warning signal for risky assets. The current relative decline in copper prices has made the market worry about whether risky assets can continue to strengthen.
2) Market status and future trends
Recently, the market has begun to weaken due to the impact of the US stock market and the launch of the Ethereum ETF. The price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weaken, and the altcoin market has also declined. The short-term market sentiment is still high, and the trend in the next week is not optimistic.
Figure 2: Fear and Greed Index
After the positive news of the Ethereum ETF was realized, Bitcoin's recent trend showed signs of peaking. However, the Ethereum market has declined recently as the trading volume of the new ETF has dropped significantly.
Initially, ETFs saw strong volume, totaling $1 billion. Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) led with $461 million in inflows, followed by BlackRock’s iShares Ether Trust (ETHA) with $244.7 million, and Grayscale’s mini ETF with $63.8 million.
However, within 48 hours, Grayscale's ETHE saw a massive outflow of $346 million, which had a negative impact on the market.
In addition, after a strong rally in technology stocks, the market began to worry about the contribution of AI to profits, which may force the US stock market to go bearish. Currently, the VIX index continues to weaken, and the market needs to pay close attention to the deterioration of sentiment.
Figure 3: Volatility Index
High-quality track
1) TON Ecosystem
- Strong fundamentals
In the crypto market where the narrative of the primary track is dull, TON is one of the few public chains that has kept people playing for months. It is labeled as a social platform with 900 million users, GameFi with tens of millions of users, Notcoin with a dozens-fold increase, a huge number of users to be developed, and the most friendly migration platform for mini-programs. The chain games on TON are simple and easy to play, the economic system is direct and effective, and the communication efficiency is high. Recently, Binance Labs announced its investment in Catizen's publishing platform Pluto Studio, and TON's ecological mini-games continue to pay attention.
2) Solana Track
- Hot Spot: SOL Spot ETF
After the launch of the Ethereum ETF, the market generally began to bet on the next approved ETF asset. Currently, the biggest hope in the market is Solana. At the same time, the tokens of the Solana ecosystem have been relatively active recently.
In the past 30 days, the trading volume of the decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana chain has surpassed the Ethereum mainnet for the first time, and it has now become the most frequently used chain by this standard. Under the premise of increased on-chain activity, Solana's DeFi infrastructure sector has ushered in a valuation repair, and the market has generally begun to increase its valuation of this sector.
Summarize
In the past week, the market retreated after a strong rise due to weakness in US stocks, and it is unclear whether the rebound has ended. The Ethereum spot ETF was launched, and the inflow failed to reverse the selling pressure of Grayscale, resulting in a short-term stampede in prices and pressure on some Altcoin. The US technology stock earnings report did not meet expectations, raising market doubts about the return on AI investment and concerns that the United States may enter a deep recession. The copper-gold ratio fell sharply, which is seen as a warning sign for risky assets.
At present, the short-term market sentiment is still high, and the trend in the next week is not optimistic. TON and Solana ecosystems have performed outstandingly and are worthy of attention, but we need to pay close attention to changes in market sentiment and the trend of the volatility index.
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