This is something we have been discussing publicly for some time, but today Followin wants to confirm again that the evidence suggests that there could be a very significant trend and change in sentiment towards BTC and the markets. broader crypto market between August 6-12.
Today Followin will present all the evidence based on time frames, price ranges and time perspective. We'll start with the monthly chart and progress to the daily chart to show the combination of factors we're seeing.
The monthly chart is what we focused on last week, but to further demonstrate that we are in the same cycle, we also added the months of previous peaks. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current cycle. 33 months from the big high and 20 months from the big Dip both put us in this period from July to September, which was the final Dip before the big rise.
Now we know time is on our side, but many think this cycle will be different as prices quickly reach All-Time-High (ATH). But compare the current cycle with previous cycles on the monthly chart.
The evidence is quite impressive. As you can see, with the exception of 2012, the previous two cycles have seen prices increase over 200% from the bear market Dip , right around the time we are in now. You can see this time is no different. In fact, the timing and price are as they should be, neither as stressful nor as over-anticipated as some commentators have suggested.
Continuing with the weekly chart, there is much to discuss. First, we see a major trend change every 30 weeks during this cycle. But what's interesting is that these 30-week cycles are right in the middle of a big Dip and a big high, happening at the same time. Followin will explain why in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30-week cycle is exactly the week of August 12th. These three 30-week cycles add up to a total of 90 weeks from the bear market Dip . 
Furthermore, zooming in a bit on the weekly chart, we see that from the 2017 peak to the first significant peak in 2021 was 174 weeks. August 12 will be 174 weeks from that significant peak in April 2021, which is certainly a significant peak. We are therefore approaching the same period between two notable turning points, the 2017 peak and the April 2021 peak. 
Now, based on the evidence we have, this market is in a different phase, and the turning point is more likely to come in the form of a major Dip than a peak. But having said that, in these cycles we often see a high and a Dip at the same time during this period.
The chart below shows this specific period in each cycle, as well as what it was like last year at this time in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a spike in August, followed by a quick drop, maybe 20-50%. Last year was different from the other three charts because it was only the second year of the cycle, but it shows the seasonality of this type of move occurring in August.
It also shows that during this cycle, the market has achieved significant highs and Dip around the 30-week turning point, with a relatively tight time frame.
Now let's XEM at it from a time perspective. In simple terms, a time perspective is counting 30 calendar days from a significant high or Dip and looking for a change in trend. You simply start at 30 and count 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc. and look for a trend change at those times. The closer the time points are, the more important that day or week is.
As the chart below shows, all of these timing measurements are within an angular time window. During this cycle, we have some major highs and Dip , all of which point to the second week of August being a period of major convergence.
Finally, from a time frame perspective, the market has followed a 150-day cyclical pattern this cycle: 155 days of gains and 150 days of consolidation. It is important to note that the market timing balance should not be out of balance. That is, the number of days the market falls should not be more than the number of days the market rises. In a bull market, the market usually rises longer than it falls, as shown in the chart below. If the market falls more days than the previous 150 days and a new Dip is created, this will not be a good sign.
Ultimately, considering the price range, time frame, time perspective, and seasonality, we are approaching a mid-August window that could be a trigger point for BTC. If this isn't enough proof, note that the BTC chart's starting date is August 19. We won't go into this too much, but birthdates are important and August is often the month when big bull runs begin.
This is why we are being cautious here and waiting for this period to end before taking more drastic actions. Will we see the ETH ETF eventually start trading followed by a decline as quickly as the BTC ETF? Or will we see more political headlines fueling the uncertainty surrounding the election? It may not be entirely certain what will happen, but this is certainly a period worth monitoring and being patient with.
