Odaily星球日报讯 自美联储将利率提高至 20 多年高点以来的一年里，其成功地为过热的美国经济降温。但更高的借贷成本也产生了一些意想不到的影响。高收入家庭正从股市和房价上涨中获益。企业正在快速借贷，消费者也在继续消费。但在其他方面，一年的高利率终于开始造成损失。美国人找工作的时间更长了，失业率也有所上升。小企业正感受到贷款成本上升带来的痛苦。低收入家庭正在拖欠汽车贷款和信用卡。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克说：“过去几个月，经济已经走软，美联储官员将非常担心经济是否开始更快地走软。这将导致官员们更快地降息。”（金十）

花旗集团经济学家：美联储对经济是否开始更快走软的担心可能会加速降息

Odaily Odaily News: In the year since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a more than 20-year high, it has successfully cooled the overheated US economy. But higher borrowing costs have also had some unexpected effects. High-income households are benefiting from rising stock and house prices. Businesses are borrowing quickly and consumers are continuing to spend. But in other areas, a year of high interest rates is finally starting to take its toll. Americans are taking longer to find jobs, and the unemployment rate has risen. Small businesses are feeling the pain of rising loan costs. Low-income families are defaulting on car loans and credit cards. Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, said: &quot;The economy has softened in the past few months, and Fed officials will be very concerned about whether the economy starts to soften faster. This will lead officials to cut interest rates faster.&quot; (Jinshi)

Citigroup economists: Concerns that the Federal Reserve may start to ease the economy more quickly could accelerate rate cuts.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Economists at Bank of America expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged in July, while indicating that progress has been made in reducing inflation. The bank's economists said in a note that the Fed is optimistic about the possibility of a rate cut in the near future, but is unlikely to signal that a September rate cut is a done deal, noting that "(a September rate cut) is possible, but it depends on the data. This is the overall tone of most FOMC members in their recent public speeches. Although the inflation data is encouraging, more evidence is needed before the policy rate normalization process begins." Overall, Bank of America still believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates once in December this year, and is not too concerned about the risk of a significant economic slowdown. Economists said, "We believe the market has once again become overly optimistic about the upcoming rate cut cycle."

Bank of America: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to signal that a September rate cut is a done deal, and may cut rates once in December.

On Monday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered its short-term policy and benchmark lending rates. This move was highly unexpected and surprised the entire market. More importantly, the central bank's move has far-reaching implications, including in the cryptocurrency sector. Many industry professionals and traders generally believe that China's rate cut is a prelude, and Bitcoin is expected to hit a new all-time high within two months, i.e. before September. After all, this is a major move by the world's second-largest economy.
The price reached $68,000, and China's unexpected rate cut...

The central bank's sudden interest rate cut has driven Bitcoin's upward trend. Will Bitcoin set a new historical high in the future?

According to Odaily, financial investment services company eToro analyst Bret Kenwell stated that the US June PCE report was largely in line with economists' expectations, and the core PCE index's year-over-year increase was only slightly higher than expected. Nevertheless, the report showed no signs that inflation would accelerate unexpectedly. Combined with the lower-than-expected CPI report earlier this month and the recent trend of lower inflation data, this should give the Federal Reserve the green light to cut rates later this quarter. At next week's Fed meeting, all eyes will be on Powell, as people hope and expect him to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has been very transparent, announcing its actions well in advance, increasing more certainty, and the market likes certainty.