Polymarket, a well-known on-chain prediction platform, recently reached an important milestone, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $1 billion. The surge in trading activity was largely driven by sentiment surrounding the quadrennial U.S. presidential election.
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ToggleU.S. election sets Polymarket up for record-breaking results
Unprecedented betting volume in July
In July alone, Polymarket's trading volume accounted for more than a third of its all-time total, with speculators keen to place bets on the U.S. presidential election. According to Dune Analytics , as of July 30, betting volume on the platform reached a staggering $351 million. This figure represents a significant increase from $111 million in June and $63 million in May.
On-chain applications benefit from presidential election boom
The record trading volume comes largely from fervent speculation about the U.S. presidential election. So far, more than $433 million has been bet on which candidate will win on November 4. Trump remains in the lead at 60 percent odds, while current Vice President Harris Harris' chances of being the Democratic candidate jumped from 1 percent to 38 percent after President Biden suddenly dropped out of the race.
You can bet on any event with Polymarket
Betting themes that transcend politics
Although Polymarket is primarily known for its speculation on political events, the platform also offers a variety of other prediction markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, business, and the 2024 Olympics, providing a diverse range of options for speculators with different interests.
Polymarket received major financing this year
In addition to its growing user base and betting volumes, Polymarket has also received financial support. On May 14, the platform completed a $70 million Series B round of financing, led by well-known Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel's Founder Fund, and Vitlaik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, also participated in the investment. Additionally, Polymarket partnered with payment platform MoonPay on July 24 to make credit and charge card payments possible, simplifying the onboarding process for non-cryptocurrency users.
Election statistics expert joins Polymarket
In an effort to further capitalize on the financial speculation surrounding U.S. politics, Polymarket on July 16 hired election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as a consultant. The move is aimed at increasing the credibility of the platform and attracting more users interested in political gambling.
Polymarket Limitations and Controversies
Despite its popularity and widespread use at US events, Polymarket is banned from US users, a restriction that poses a significant challenge that could limit the platform's growth in its primary market.
It is also a taboo platform in Taiwan
At the end of 2023, on the eve of Taiwan's presidential election, the police deployed more than 70 police officers to conduct raids across the country, and ultimately arrested 17 suspected participants, with a total amount of 5,502 USDC involved. ( Polymarket election gambling scandal, how did I get caught? ) According to Article 88-1 of the "President and Vice President Election and Recall Act" , anyone who gambles on election results in a public place or a place accessible to the public will face A person may be sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of not more than six months or a fine, and the Taiwan government will enforce the law accordingly. Polymarket is also restricted in the Taiwan domain, and some users will receive a warning screen from the Criminal Bureau when entering.
Although Polymarket can be used to predict a variety of events, when it comes to national politics, there are relevant limitations in multiple legal areas.
