Original | Liu Jiaolian
Yesterday [“7.29 Teaching Chain Insider: BTC is approaching the city of 70,000 dollars”], after breaking through the 70,000 dollar line, it quickly fell, and has already retreated sharply to around 66k. Long and short battles, dragons fight in the wild, and their blood is dark yellow.
The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting today and tomorrow. The FOMC interest rate meeting in July 2024. This is a schedule that has been arranged long ago.
What was not planned for was the volatile global situation, the turbulent economic situation, the complicated macroeconomic data, and the unexpected American politics.
There is news in the market that the Fed may revise its statement, acknowledging that inflation has improved recently and hinting at a rate cut in September. But this also means that the Fed does not think it is necessary to cut interest rates in July.
Figure: Multivariate Core Trend of PCE Inflation
Source: New York Fed
It now appears that the market feels that the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July is still over 95%, while the probability of a rate cut in September is as high as 100%.
In fact, in the political atmosphere full of uncertainty before the US November election, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is also in a dilemma. Trump has already thrown him carrots and sticks in public interviews, saying that if he is elected, he will retain Powell, but on the premise that Powell does not cut interest rates during Biden's term, but saves the benefits of loose monetary policy until after he takes office.
Obviously, Fed officials do not want to place bets in advance. They are risk-averse and prudent financiers. They do not want to jump back and forth like some impatient politicians or entrepreneurs. They try to maintain political neutrality in their cautious macroeconomic decisions. This delicate mentality will cause the Fed to have a little psychological barrier to make monetary policy adjustments just before the US election.
Just as Trump made a bold statement at the Bitcoin2024 conference last weekend, saying that "the United States must retain 100% of ( Bitcoin ) as a national strategic reserve", the Biden administration, which is still in office, did not give him any face. This morning, on-chain monitoring reported that the US government had just moved a small part of the nearly 200,000 BTC it held, about 30,000 BTC worth more than 2 billion US dollars, and it was suspected that it was preparing to sell it.
The market also quickly took advantage of the situation and retreated directly to the 66k line for defense.
What is surprising is that Mr. 100, who was previously famous for his daily gains and continuous increase in holdings, actually sold a large amount of 2,020 BTC before the US government moved the currency, accounting for 2.8% of his total holdings.
Could it be that he had heard some rumors long ago? Or was it just a coincidence?
Who cares what their motives are. Anyway, since they want to be "paper hands" (referring to those who can't hold), let us "diamond hands" (referring to those who firmly hold) add to our positions when the market falls.
The chances of winning when adding to a falling position are not at the moment of adding to a position, but before adding to a position. Even before the first investment is made, it is already determined before the investment even begins.
The Art of War says that if you make more plans, you will win; if you make fewer plans, you will not win. What about if you make no plans at all?
The root cause of investment losses for the vast majority of people is “fighting without planning” – they don’t have anything clearly planned or calculated in their minds, on paper, or on spreadsheets, and they rush into the market with their funds in a hurry and rush into battle, only to end up with everything being harvested.
At the very least, you should read all the articles and internal references that Jiaolian has written in the past five or six years, right? ;D
The first sentence of Sun Tzu's Art of War says that war is a matter of great importance to a state, a matter of life and death, a road to survival or destruction, and must be carefully considered.
This is the idea of "cautious warfare".
The idea of being cautious about war, to put it simply, is to try not to regard war as the first option for solving problems. However, if all other options fail and you have to fight, then you must strive to win the battle.
Jiaolian believes that investment should also adhere to the idea of "cautious investment".
There are many impatient people who love everyone they see and invest in everyone they see, just like the reincarnation of starving ghosts and old perverts. They are not running for profit at all, but it seems that they are running to give money to the banker.
Without caution in battle and without planning, it becomes the norm to take over at high prices, sell at low prices, and recover capital and take profits.
Planning in the army can lead to victory thousands of miles away. Planning before the battle can lead to victory ten years later.
Be cautious in fighting first, make strategic plans second, BTC third, insist on regular investment fourth, and increase your position when the market falls fifth.
With these five things, it will be difficult not to make money from investing.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
