Weekly Review
This week, from July 22 to July 29, the highest price of BTC was around $69,399 and the lowest price was close to $63,456, with a fluctuation range of about 9.73%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 66,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 59000-63000, about 1.28 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000, about 1.32 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
• The probability that the price will not break through 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
1. A Reuters survey showed that 73 out of 100 economists expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2024, 13 believed it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and 3 believed there would be no interest rate cut.
2. Strategist Donald Hagan said that drawing on the experience of the past 17 interest rate cut cycles, the S&P 500 index rose an average of 14% in the year after the Fed's first interest rate cut, and investors pushed up corporate valuations after the Fed's first interest rate cut.
3. Analyst Joseph Capurso said that the US second quarter GDP estimate released on Thursday was only 1.6% growth, and the personal consumption expenditure inflation data for June released on Friday may be close to zero. Further weakness in the US economy may increase the Federal Reserve's reasons for cutting interest rates this year.
4. Analyst Han Tan believes that if the upcoming GDP and PCE data paint a "Goldilocks" scenario for the US economy, this will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
5. Barclays strategists: Raise the S&P 500 index target for fiscal 2024 from 5,300 to 5,600.
Encrypted ecological news
1. Citi upgraded Coinbase's rating from neutral to buy due to improved regulatory risks and raised its target price from $260 to $345.
2. Wintermute expects BTC ETFs to accumulate approximately $32 billion by the end of the year.
3. Ki Young, founder of CryptoQuant, released data saying that on July 23, the inflow to the addresses of long-term ETH holders reached a historical high of 714,000 ETH.
4. Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner of Dragonny, said that the opening trading volume of ETH spot ETF was very strong, but the price of ETH did not change significantly because Grayscale's ETHE was mainly sold, which would offset a lot of the first day's capital inflows.
5. Eric Balchunas said that the net inflow of ETH ETF is expected to reach US$5-6 billion in the first year (about 20% of the inflow of BTC ETF), among which BlackRock and Fidelity are the first choice for most assets.
6. BlackRock's BTC spot ETF IBIT has seen more inflows this year than the QQQ ETF tracked by Nasdaq. BlackRock's IBIT report showed that its BTC spot ETf inflows reached $526.7 million on July 22, the highest single-day inflow since March.
7. MtGox creditors stated that they have received compensation. Grayscale’s ETH outflow is obviously weaker than the outflow impact of its BTC spot ETF on the first day of listing.
8. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said: Traditional asset management can no longer ignore cryptocurrency as an asset class, and will see traditional markets actively embrace this field.
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• Positions of various whale • ETH long-term net position • Short-term cost line • 250% profit level for long-term participants
The position effects of major whale show that the market selling pressure has slowed down relatively.
Among them, the leading whale began to buy again and accumulate shares.
ETH net position has not changed much. Although the ETF has been approved, the market has not changed much. It may still require a certain degree of opportunity.
The cost line for short-term participants is around 65,500, which is a point of focus in the market.
If the market pulls back later, bottoms out again, etc., it will be a very important anchor point.
Generally this is a pause point in a bull market correction.
The 250% profit zone for long-term participants is around US$70,000.
This price level may form a short-term pressure and buffer zone.
Market risks can be watched around here, especially as the market gradually weakens.
Mid-term exploration
• Stablecoin supply net position • Liquidity supply • Network sentiment positivity • Price structure analysis model
Stablecoins are still growing slowly, perhaps because the current trend of purchasing power growth has not slowed down.
When the market is at a low point in the near future, there will be a certain amount of liquidity supply.
It is possible that when the market experiences a continuous decline, the increase in liquidity supply will determine the balance between supply and demand, as well as the anti-fall effect.
Network sentiment shows signs of slowing slightly, which may lead to greater volatility in price ranges.
Because the current market trend has slowed down to a certain extent, but combined with the increase in the supply of stablecoins, new buyers may intervene in the market.
According to the light brown line segment shown in the figure, which is the inventory top, the price is around 70,500, which is the current stage resistance level.
If the supply of stablecoins continues to increase, this price level may be broken.
Otherwise, based on the premium calculation, 71,000-73,000 may be a price that is difficult to break through.
At the same time, the price of 250% profit of long-term chips - 70,700 is also a position that needs attention. There may be a large-scale selling of long-term chips.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor • Option intention transaction ratio • Derivatives trading volume • Option implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • BTC exchange net position • ETH exchange net position • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin exchange net position • Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the green zone. Derivatives have low risk.
This week, the risk factors of BTC and ETH diverged, which directly means that ETH still has potential for short squeeze, but the risk factor of BTC has reached the red zone, and it is expected that there is a greater probability of a volatile market.
Options trading volume has dropped significantly and the put option ratio is at a low level.
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
There has been a massive drop in implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
The positive sentiment in the market (blue line) has not continued to increase, and the current positive sentiment has begun to decline slightly. In addition, compared with the previous market surges, the growth rate and volume of positive sentiment in the market this time are relatively low.
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a large amount of inflow accumulation, and ETH has accumulated outflows.
Although there is a small outflow of BTC at present, the large amount of chips that previously flowed into the exchange have not yet been fully digested.
ETH exchange net positions are in an outflow accumulation state.
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
This week, the purchasing power of the Americas is still positive, but after the stimulus of the news, the purchasing power has not continued to increase significantly. Currently, only a small amount of purchasing power remains in the United States and Europe, and the purchasing power of Asia is still being lost.
USDC's net position is still accumulating in large quantities into exchanges.
Off-chain transaction data rating: At 60,000, there is a willingness to buy; at 70,000, there is a willingness to sell.
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000~74,000.
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000~74,000.
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000~74,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
1. After digesting the negatives such as MtGox and ETH spot ETF and the sale of Germany;
2. The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting on July 30-31. There is a high probability that Powell will take a dovish stance at this meeting, which may pave the way for September.
3. If we follow the US stock market, there should be no increase
4. In the next year, the spot ETH ETF will receive up to US$4 billion in inflows from investors. Driven by these inflows, the price of ETH will increase by more than 20% in the next 12 months.
5. The short-term Grayscale lifting of the ban on ETH is only temporary, just like BTC, which fell at the beginning and then rose from 40,000 to more than 70,000 US dollars; the inflow of ETH is not as good as BTC, but it will be more or less similar.
On-chain long-term insights:
1. Major whale have slowed down their selling, and the largest group of whale has started buying;
2. ETH net position has not changed much. Although the ETF has been approved, the market demand has not reached a critical point;
3. The short-term cost is around 65,500, which is the key point. The short-term cost is generally one of the bottom areas of the bull market correction;
4. The 250% profit zone for long-term participants is shown at around $70,000, which may be one of the pressure stages.
• Market setting tone:
The market is beginning to ease, but is facing new challenges.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. Stablecoins still show signs of continued growth;
2. The supply of liquidity has temporarily stopped rising;
3. The slowdown of online sentiment may bring about a certain amplitude;
4. 70500 is the top of the stock, 70700 is the high multiple profit of long-term chips;
• Market setting tone:
Volatility and Growth As market expectations rise, the supply of stablecoins is increasing, and market sentiment is slowing down, there may be larger fluctuations.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor is in the green area, which means the risk is low.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows that there is a large amount of BTC inflow accumulation and ETH outflow accumulation.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 70,000.
7. The probability that the price will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that the price will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
• Market setting tone:
Driven by last week's news, the market's positive sentiment has not continued to increase. In the short term, if the market's purchasing power does not increase further this week, the probability of a large-scale and sustained short squeeze is low, and we still need to pay attention to a small correction.
Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
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