Chainfeeds Introduction:
By analyzing data such as Solana's on-chain users, MEV, stablecoins, and emissions, crypto researcher Flip Research believes that the Solana ecosystem's users, organic fees, and DEX trading volume are greatly exaggerated. Once the memecoin craze subsides, many of Solana's indicators will collapse.
Article Source:
https://x.com/Flip_Research/status/1818216739680710776
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Flip Research
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Flip Research: There are serious issues with frequent project Rugs on Solana, which have multiple implications: 1) Given the abnormally high transaction-to-user ratio and the number of fake/fraudulent transactions on the chain, it seems that the vast majority of transactions are non-organic. If we assume that the real SOL transaction-to-user ratio is similar to Blast, it means that more than 93% of transactions (and fees) on Solana are non-organic; 2) The only reason these scams exist is that it is profitable to do so. Therefore, users lose an amount of money at least equal to the fees generated + transaction costs, which is as high as millions of dollars per day; 3) Once deploying these scams becomes unprofitable (i.e. when actual users get tired of losing money), most of the trading volume and fee income will decline; 4) It looks like users, organic fees, and DEX trading volume are all seriously exaggerated. MEV on Solana is in a unique position. The problem with Solana is that the vast majority of tokens traded are memecoins with high volatility and low liquidity, and traders often set trade slippage to >10% to ensure that the trade is successfully executed. This provides MEV with a profitable attack surface. If we look at profitability in blockspace, most of the value is now coming from MEV tips. Once memecoin starts to cool, MEV fee revenue will also collapse. I believe that commonly quoted metrics for SOL are significantly overstated. Additionally, the vast majority of organic users are losing money to bad actors. We are currently in a mania phase, and retail inflows are still outweighing outflows to these "old players", which keeps us positive on Solana. Once users get fatigued with continued losses, many metrics will collapse quickly. Additionally, SOL faces many inherent headwinds, and any price increase will exacerbate inflationary pressures/unlocks. In the end, I believe SOL is fundamentally overvalued, and while existing sentiment + momentum may drive prices higher in the short term, the long-term picture is more uncertain. 【原文原文】
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