Dehydration big character poster: August will become an important turning point.

Highlights of this issue :

1. Open interest continues to rise despite sharp volatility

2. Be wary of extreme market fluctuations

1. Bitwu.eth (@BTW0205): ETH's next two catalysts

Ethereum’s next rise will mainly focus on two catalysts:

1. Approval of Ethereum ETF to introduce staking. The annual ETH staking income of about 3.2% + the lower inflation rate will bring more institutional staking demand.

2. The next hard fork Pectra upgrade is expected to be carried out in Q4. This upgrade introduces EIP-3074, integrates smart contract functions into standard wallets, solves scalability issues, and focuses on improving transaction efficiency and security.

2. Crypto_Painter (@CryptoPainter_X): Beware of extreme volatility

With this wave of futures pull-ups this morning, the total open interest of BTC futures contracts across the entire network has officially surpassed the previous level of 72,000, reaching the 38 billion US dollar mark!

This is a warning, because high open interest in futures contracts often means that the market will soon see a wave of unilateral liquidation. Historically, under high open interest conditions, long positions are often liquidated.

What’s interesting is that even though the futures positions broke a local high, the price is still more than $3,000 away from 72,000. Is it because there is selling pressure in the spot market or there are a large number of short orders in the futures positions?

It is unknown, but in short, we must be wary of extreme fluctuations!

Embers: A whale transferred a huge amount of ETH, perhaps preparing to sell at a loss

On July 29, a whale/institution transferred 25,800 ETH ($87.01M) to Binance. This whale/institution withdrew a total of 25,860 ETH ($89.41M) from Binance through 4 addresses between May 31 and July 25, with an average withdrawal price of about $3,457. Now, he has transferred most of his ETH to Binance, with only 60 ETH ($0.2M) remaining in the 0x58E…Ef1 address. The current price of ETH is $3,382, slightly lower than his withdrawal price. Did he transfer to Binance to prepare for a loss?

According to Coinmarketcap data, the top five currencies in terms of 24-hour popularity are BTC, SOL, PEPE, ETH, and NOT. According to Coingecko data, in the crypto market, the top five sectors with the highest growth are Cat-Themed, Hospitality, VBC Ventures Portfolio, Moonriver Ecosystem, and Solana Ecosystem.

Focus: What are the technical advantages of the modular leading new project Avail?

Avail is a modular blockchain project led by former Polygon co-founder Anurag Arjun, whose goal is to provide a trust-minimized and secure base layer focused on data availability so that the ecosystem can build on it. This highly optimized base layer will provide raw block space for the next generation of trust-minimized applications and blockchains.

On July 23, 2023, Avail announced the launch of the Avail DA mainnet and AVAIL tokens. Avail DA is a modular blockchain solution and the only chain-agnostic (i.e., not related to a specific blockchain and compatible with any blockchain) DA layer that combines KZG commitments and data availability sampling (DAS). It is designed to optimize data availability (DA) services for highly scalable and customizable Rollups.

Avail has currently completed its Series A financing, with the following venture capital firms participating in the financing: Founders Fund, DragonFly Capital, Cyber ​​Fund and other well-known VCs, including SevenX, Figment, Nomad Capital, LocalGlobe, Altos Ventures, Chapter One, Superscrypt, Foresight Ventures, Mirana Ventures, KR 1, RW 3 Ventures, Alliance Dao, Hashkey, Elixir Capital, Spark Digital Capital and some angel investors.

Currently, there are hundreds of rollups in the blockchain industry, and appchains are also increasing. Web3 faces fragmented user experience and liquidity issues. Avail was born to solve these problems. From a technical perspective, Avail has three basic pillars: Data Availability (DA) layer, Nexus interoperability layer, and Fusion Security layer.

Avail DA is a chain-agnostic DA layer that combines KZG commitments and data availability sampling (DAS). The Nexus interoperability layer is the coordination component of Avail, providing a permissionless framework for inter-Rollups messaging. Fusion Security completes the Avail unified layer by providing additional security for the unified layer of the Avail ecosystem and web3.

Avail's ecological token is AVAIL, with a total supply of 10 billion, of which community and research account for 23.875%, public allocation accounts for 12%, ecological development accounts for 30%, core developers account for 20%, and investors account for 14.125%.

AVAIL occupies an important position in the Avail ecosystem. Its specific functions include: 1) used to pay for data availability and interoperability services; 2) used to participate in network consensus and governance to ensure the decentralization and security of the platform; 3) incentivize validators and light clients to participate in data availability sampling and network maintenance.

AVAIL also plays a significant role in Avail's network security. Through the AVAIL token incentive mechanism, Avail can attract more validators and developers to participate in the Avail ecosystem; in addition, using the Nominated Proof of Stake (NPoS) mechanism, Avail can support up to 1,000 external validators to ensure the decentralization and security of the network; through the Fusion Security layer, the security of non-native tokens and native tokens can be integrated to enhance the overall economic strength and stability of the network.

@IT_Tech_PL: Bitcoin key indicators continue to grow

On July 15, I shared an analysis of the crypto market situation (on my X profile). In it, I explained why I thought the sell-off was over and that positive sentiment could return in the coming weeks.

How does it look now?

1. The price of Bitcoin has recovered to over $63,500, which is higher than the average realized price (buy price) of short-term investors.

2. The market value of USDT and USDC increases, and changes in their market value directly affect the price of Bitcoin.

3. Miners are no longer underpaid (they were underpaid); they are now paid fairly, meaning that mining and selling Bitcoin allows them to break even at current prices.

4. A large amount of funds have flowed into Bitcoin spot ETF funds in the past two weeks.

5.️Mt. Gox has begun paying back creditors through exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken. There is no panic in the market and prices remain stable. For weeks I have been writing in my X profile that Mt. Gox does not affect the market from a supply perspective, but only as a psychological factor.

6. Positive sentiment in the US market has returned due to the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs and former US President Donald Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville yesterday (07/27/2024).

@Yonsei_dent: Open interest continues to rise despite sharp volatility

Since mid-July, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated wildly between $63,000 and $69,000, leading to a large number of long and short positions being liquidated. When traders’ positions are liquidated, open interest decreases.

However, despite the massive liquidation over the past week, open interest has increased on major exchanges. (Binance, Bybit, and OKX are the top three exchanges, accounting for more than 80% of the perpetual coin market open interest).

This shows that transaction demand is increasing, even amid high Bitcoin price volatility. They are now being paid fairly, meaning that mining and selling Bitcoins allows them to break even at current prices.

Digital Asset Research: August may be a major turning point for the crypto market

This is something I have discussed publicly for some time, but today I wanted to reaffirm that the evidence shows that there may be a very significant trend and sentiment shift in BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market between August 6th and 12th.

I first mentioned this time period a few months ago in a video outlook, which you can find here.

Today I'm going to show all the evidence that I've built up step by step based on the time frame, the price range, and the time perspective. I think you're going to see a high probability of a major event or news happening within this time window.

We will start with the monthly chart and work our way down to the daily chart to show the convergence of multiple factors we are seeing.

The monthly chart is what we focused on last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we have also added the months of the previous tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current cycle. 33 months from the major high and 20 months from the major low both put us in this time period from July to September, which was the last low before the big rise.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many believe this cycle is different because prices are reaching new all-time highs so quickly. But let's compare the current cycle to the previous ones on the monthly chart.

The evidence is pretty stunning. As you can see, with the exception of 2012, the previous two cycles saw prices rise just over 200% from the bear market low, right in the timeframe we are in now. You can see that this time is no different. In fact, time and price are exactly where they should be, neither overextended nor over-expected as some commentators have suggested.

Moving on to the weekly chart, there is more to discuss. First, we see that there is a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. But what is interesting is that these 30 week cycles are right between a major low and a major high, occurring at the same time. I will explain why in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30 week cycle is right in the week of August 12th. These three 30 week cycles add up to a total of 90 weeks from the bear market low.

Furthermore, zooming in a little more on the weekly chart, I notice that from the 2017 high to the first significant high in 2021 is 174 weeks. August 12th will be 174 weeks from that significant high in April 2021, which is undoubtedly a significant high. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between the two significant inflection points, the 2017 high and the April 2021 high.

Now, based on the evidence we have, this market is at a different stage, and it seems to me that the inflection point is more likely to come in the form of a major low than a major high. But as I have been saying, in these cycles, we tend to see a major high and low at the same time in this time window.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle, as well as what it was like last year at this time in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp rise in August, followed by a rapid fall, which can be 20-50%. Last year is different from the other three charts because it was only the second year of the cycle, but it shows the seasonality of this type of move happening in August.

It also shows that during this cycle, the market made significant highs and lows around the 30-week inflection point, with a relatively tight time window.

Now let's look at it from a time perspective. In simple terms, a time perspective is counting 30 calendar days from a significant high or low and looking for a trend change. You simply start at 30 and count 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc. and look for a trend change at those time points. The closer the time points are, the more important that day or week is.

As the chart below shows, all of these time measurements fall within a time angle window. In this cycle, we have several major highs and lows that all point to the second week of August being a major convergence period.

Finally, from a time frame perspective, the market has been following a 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days of ups and 150 days of consolidation. It is important to note that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is, the number of days the market is down should not be more than the number of days it is up. In a bull market, the market will usually be up for longer than it is down, as shown in the chart below. If the market is down for more days than the previous 150 days and a new low is made, this will not be a good sign.

Finally, taking into account the price range, time frame, time angle and seasonality, we are approaching a mid-August window that is likely to be a trigger point for BTC. If this is not enough evidence, note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won't go into this too much, but birth dates are important and August is usually the month when major bull runs begin.

This is why I am being cautious here and waiting for this window to end before taking more aggressive action. Will we see the ETH ETF finally start trading followed by a rapid decline like the BTC ETF? Or will we see more political headlines causing uncertainty around the election? I’m not entirely sure what it will be, but this is definitely a period to watch and remain patient.