August Outlook is here, fam
I have written an article about Token Watchlist before, and this article will be a continuation of this series.
To ensure the simplicity of the content, the Token Watchlist only covers the targets that I am optimistic about and have a high probability of getting involved in in the future.
1/ Let’s first talk about my views on the overall market in August - just like I mentioned in TG Channel (I have been saying this before, for the market that I don’t quite understand, my position is very light, and I have only bought some copycats recently, such as $PIRATE $BOME $TURBO. $PIRATE was written on Twitter throughout the process. The last two were called in the group. The group called $TURBO twice, and re-entered the market when it fell back to 53-56. The loss was stopped at the end of July. The positions are all quite small.
My own pace is to reduce the frequency of transactions as much as possible in August, and the overall Crypto holdings will not exceed 40%. If there are small opportunities for copycats, I will participate with a light position until my indicator is triggered. We have not entered a bear market yet, so be optimistic, friends. (This part was written on July 31, so there is a certain lag)
2/ Next, let’s talk about the theme of this outlook, Token Watchlist. The big narrative is weak, so let’s look at the opportunities for the small narrative.
How to understand the recent events of $MKR? We can divide it into two parts (actually there is only one thing, which is Rebranding). Endgame will be officially launched in August, so I will focus on this target.
1. Split
1:24000 split, $MKR and $NGT are convertible.
2. Endgame
The goal of MakerDAO Endgame is to get the protocol into the "Endgame State". The protocol will split most of MakerDAO's functions into SubDAOs. The benefit of SubDAO is that it makes protocol decision-making and execution more efficient. The focus of the market on $MKR is how the Subdao token will resonate with $MKR $DAI. After $DAI becomes $NST, $NGT (that is, the token after the split of $MKR) can be mined. The expectations of the new MakerDAO chain and the use of $NST to mine Subdao tokens will have to wait until next year.
So this year's expectations are mainly focused on splitting and $NST mining $NGT. In my opinion, although some people think that $NGT output will form selling pressure, in my opinion, these selling pressures will not affect short-term prices too much. On the contrary, when everyone is attracted to mining and financial management, more and more people in the market will discuss related matters. In the Crypto market, attention is more precious than gold. And the concentration of attention (mining, splitting) will allow $MKR to gain a huge amount of market attention in a shorter time scale. This is also an opportunity for us to hype $MKR.
In addition, for DeFi-related targets, although Uniswap has been making continuous moves, there is no opportunity to attract widespread market attention, so I will wait and see. The recent new moves of $AAVE are also worth paying attention to, but I think this update of $AAVE will only be a short-term positive and affect its short-term price trend. It feels a bit like eating other people's leftovers to hype it now.
Although we are optimistic in the long term, we need to pay attention to the progress of AAVE in promoting token economics changes. This time period will not be short and may take more than half a year.
You can take a look at this article from Mint Ventures: https://research.mintventures.fund/2024/07/26/zh-a-deep-dive-into-aaves-new-economic-model/
I personally don’t like $COMP. I will wait until it is launched online before considering staking it.
$CRV emissions are decreasing, so you can keep an eye on it. But I am increasingly disliking the $CRV system, including $FXS.
Token WatchList #3 $BANANA
Regarding Banana Gun, my personal opinion is to look at the following two aspects:
1. Fundamentals
2. Binance
The fundamentals are easy to understand. Banana Gun is a trading bot that generates income from fees and distributes it to token holders. In other words, the more Banana Bot users and fees it has, the more valuable its tokens are. We can see all this data through Dune (https://dune.com/whale_hunter/banana-gun-bot). The variables in the fundamentals are changes in market sentiment, on-chain activity, and Banana Bot's performance on Solana.
The fundamental variable of Binance lies in CZ’s release from prison (should be at the end of September). CZ’s release from prison is good for all tokens related to Binance, including the first HODLer airdrop $BANANA.
Given that Banana has good fundamentals, a low FDV (compared to other Binance new coins), and may be positively correlated with Binance in the future, I will focus on this token.
3/ Token Watchlist This series will be updated later. Next, I will talk about each section.
From the Dune data dashboard, RWA data was the best performing narrative last month. I personally like this narrative as well and am also looking for small-cap opportunities other than $ONDO.
https://dune.com/dyorcrypto/relative-strength-crypto-narrative
$MPL is one (I will mention it on Twitter if I buy it). Maple launched a product called Syrup with an average APY of 16%. Its TVL data is good and its revenue growth is also good, so it is worth paying attention to. If many people like this part, I will make a separate article to talk about this project in detail.
4/ In the AI track, I will focus on $TAO
The price of $TAO has dropped a lot due to the previous FUD and hacker attacks, but I think this is only temporary and there will be an expected reversal in the future $TAO.
Grayscale's AI Fund is a small expected reversal. If a big reversal occurs, I will immediately intervene in this target. This reversal may be related to the project itself or to the external environment.
5/ Predicting the track
Given the good performance of Polymarket, I chose $PROS on Binance as a lottery position with a small position.
6/ Other events worth noting
1. 8.8 International Cat Day
2. 8.13 PPI / 8.14 CPI
3.8.28 $NVDA Earnings
4. 8.31 STX Nakamoto upgrade (unsure of the exact time)
5. 8.31 $MAGIC Treasure chain mainnet launch (unsure of exact time)
Author: @layerggofficial
Although this article does not mention $PENDLE, I still love it, don't miss it.
Finally, I would like to give a small advertisement to my paid group. Currently, there are about 450 people. It is jointly operated by me and Mantou. I mainly do investment research and fundamentals, and Mantou mainly looks at secondary + On-Chain meme related. We both look at Alpha content. The price is 3SOL/year.
TG Channel (previous market views are shared here): https://t.me/+nFecUZLZhMBlMTc1
Reading list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JSmI-YDvbdxXJ1Tud2sK8mly33zh1VmcH8i5wUgSYs0/edit?usp=sharing
High-quality CT information flow: https://x.com/i/lists/1795371206344130752
