Odaily星球日报讯 周一，由于交易员预计日本利率将进一步上调，同时对美国经济放缓和日元升值的担忧打压投资者人气，日本股市连续第三天暴跌。日经 225 指数一度跌超 7%，日本东证指数向下触发熔断机制，日本这两大基准指数均进入熊市。 目前交易员对美联储将能够推动美国经济软着陆的预期正迅速转变。周五公布的数据显示，美国失业率意外攀升至 4.3%，高于美联储的年终预测，引发了萨姆衰退指标。 瑞银集团财富管理部门的资深美国经济学家布罗斯表示：“由于失业率高于预期，核心个人消费支出通胀目前低于美联储的年终预测，我们认为，从风险的平衡来看，美联储倾向于采取更激进的行动”。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 周一，由于交易员预计日本利率将进一步上调，同时对美国经济放缓和日元升值的担忧打压投资者人气，日本股市连续第三天暴跌。日经 225 指数一度跌超 7%，日本东证指数向下触发熔断机制，日本这两大基准指数均进入熊市。目前交易员对美联储将能够推动美国经济软着陆的预期正迅速转变。周五公布的数据显示，美国失业率意外攀升至 4.3%，高于美联储的年终预测，引发了萨姆衰退指标。瑞银集团财富管理部门的资深美国经济学家布罗斯表示：“由于失业率高于预期，核心个人消费支出通胀目前低于美联储的年终预测，我们认为，从风险的平衡来看，美联储倾向于采取更激进的行动”。（金十）

交易员押注日本央行继续加息，日股周一继续暴跌

On Monday, due to traders' expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan, as well as concerns about the slowdown in the US economy and the appreciation of the yen, which dampened investor sentiment, the Japanese stock market fell for the third consecutive day. The Nikkei 225 index fell by more than 7% at one point, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index triggered a circuit breaker, with both of Japan's major benchmark indices entering a bear market. Traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing for the US economy are rapidly changing. Data released on Friday showed that the US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, higher than the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast, triggering the Sahm recession indicator. UBS Group's senior US economist, Brose, said: "Given that the unemployment rate is higher than expected and core personal consumption expenditure inflation is currently lower than the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast, we believe that from a risk balance perspective, the Federal Reserve is inclined to take more aggressive action."

Odaily Odaily News: On Monday, Japanese stocks plunged for the third consecutive day as traders expected further interest rate hikes in Japan, while concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a stronger yen weighed on investor sentiment. The Nikkei 225 index fell more than 7% at one point, and the Topix index triggered a circuit breaker downward, with both of Japan&#39;s two major benchmark indices entering a bear market. Traders&#39; expectations that the Federal Reserve will be able to push the U.S. economy to a soft landing are changing rapidly. Data released on Friday showed that the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.3%, higher than the Fed&#39;s year-end forecast, triggering the SAM recession indicator. &quot;With the unemployment rate higher than expected and core personal consumption expenditure inflation currently below the Fed&#39;s year-end forecast, we believe that the Fed is inclined to take more aggressive action in terms of the balance of risks,&quot; said Bross, a senior U.S. economist at UBS Group Wealth Management. (Jinshi)

Traders are betting that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, and the Japanese stock market continued to plummet on Monday.

Odaily reported that Industrial Securities issued a review of the US non-farm payrolls in July. The team believes that the conditions for a rate cut have been met, and the brewing downside risks in the labor market have further fueled market expectations for a rate cut. The market has upgraded from a cooling of the trading economy to a recession, and the observation of the possibility of a recession has not ended, and caution should be exercised against over-trading. After the data release, stocks fell and bonds rose, with the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September exceeding 70%, and the market expects a total rate cut of 100-125 basis points in 3 meetings this year, with major asset classes exhibiting recessionary trading characteristics. However, the observation of the possibility of a recession has not ended, and the current data is not sufficient to determine whether the economy will truly fall into a recession. The July CPI, August non-farm payrolls, and August CPI before the September meeting will further confirm whether the recession risk will escalate and whether the preemptive rate cut will be successful, thereby determining whether there will be a "big step" rate cut in the future.

Citic Securities: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 100-125 basis points in three meetings this year.

After the release of the US non-farm payroll data last night, the global financial market experienced a major earthquake. Non-farm employment grew by 114,000, weaker than the expected 175,000, and more importantly, the unemployment rate soared to 4.3%, significantly exceeding expectations, triggering the so-called "Sahm rule" and sending the strongest signal that the US economy is entering a recession.

The Sahm rule is an empirical regularity: when the 3-month average unemployment rate exceeds the previous year's low point by 0.5%, the US economy is bound to fall into recession. How accurate is this indicator? It has been almost 10 out of 10 accurate, never missing. The following figure presents the Sahm rule...

The US stocks are pushing for death.

The last time we saw a similar decline in the cryptocurrency market capitalization was in early July, when Germany began to sell off BTC. This time, the catalyst comes from Web2, particularly the stock market.

Here is all the information you need to know, as well as my expectations for the stock market reopening on Monday.

Stock Market, Interest Rates, and Unemployment Rate

First, let me explain some fundamental factors that play a key role in the global economy and directly impact the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Interest Rate Cuts: When interest rates decline, companies can borrow funds at a lower cost and reinvest their earnings more effectively. This is seen as a positive signal for the stock market because...