Goldman Sachs has raised the "recession risk" for the US economy to 25%.

Odaily Odaily News Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a US recession next year from 15% to 25%. However, they also pointed out that despite the sharp rise in unemployment, "there are several reasons not to worry about a recession." Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said: "We still believe that the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy still looks good, there are no major financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to cut interest rates and can cut interest rates quickly if necessary." It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is not as aggressive as that of JPMorgan and Citi. Hatzius' team expects the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November and December; in contrast, JPMorgan and Citi expect a 50 basis point cut in September. Goldman Sachs reported: "Our forecast assumes that job growth will resume in August and that the FOMC will consider a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risks. If we are wrong and the August employment report is as weak as July, a 50 basis point rate cut may be in place in September." The economists added that they were skeptical about whether the U.S. labor market was "at risk" of a rapid deterioration. They said this because job vacancies suggest that demand remains solid and there is no obvious shock to trigger a downturn. (Jinshi)