Odaily星球日报讯 美国联邦基金利率期货延续涨势，暗示美联储在九月份降息 50 个基点的概率为 89%。（金十）

美国联邦基金利率期货延续涨势，暗示美联储在9月份降息50个基点的概率为89%

Odaily Odaily News: US federal funds rate futures continued to rise, suggesting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 89%. (Jinshi)

The U.S. federal funds rate futures continued to rise, suggesting an 89% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Bond traders are increasingly betting that the US economy is on the brink of deterioration, and the Federal Reserve will need to start aggressively easing monetary policy to avoid a recession. The previous concerns about high inflation have largely disappeared, quickly giving way to new concerns that the economy will stall unless the central bank starts lowering rates from their over 20-year highs. This is driving a rally in the bond market that is one of the strongest since the banking crisis concerns erupted in March 2023. The rally is so strong that the yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury bond fell 50 basis points last week to just under 3.9%. This yield has not been this much lower than the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate (currently around 5.3%) since the global financial crisis and the bursting of the internet bubble.

The 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen by 50 basis points in a few days, with the market heavily betting that the Federal Reserve will launch a rescue mode.

Odaily reported that Industrial Securities issued a review of the US non-farm payrolls in July. The team believes that the conditions for a rate cut have been met, and the brewing downside risks in the labor market have further fueled market expectations for a rate cut. The market has upgraded from a cooling of the trading economy to a recession, and the observation of the possibility of a recession has not ended, and caution should be exercised against over-trading. After the data release, stocks fell and bonds rose, with the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September exceeding 70%, and the market expects a total rate cut of 100-125 basis points in 3 meetings this year, with major asset classes exhibiting recessionary trading characteristics. However, the observation of the possibility of a recession has not ended, and the current data is not sufficient to determine whether the economy will truly fall into a recession. The July CPI, August non-farm payrolls, and August CPI before the September meeting will further confirm whether the recession risk will escalate and whether the preemptive rate cut will be successful, thereby determining whether there will be a "big step" rate cut in the future.

Citic Securities: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 100-125 basis points in three meetings this year.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Goldman Sachs' economists have raised the likelihood of a US economic recession next year from 15% to 25%. However, they also pointed out that despite a significant rise in the unemployment rate, "there are several reasons not to worry about an economic recession." Led by Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' economists stated: "We still believe the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy still looks good, there are no major financial imbalances, the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to cut rates, and they can cut rates quickly if necessary." It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is not as aggressive as that of JPMorgan and Citigroup. Hatzius' team expects the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December; in contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect a 50-basis-point rate cut in September. The Goldman Sachs report stated: "Our forecast is premised on employment growth recovering in August, and the FOMC believing that a 25-basis-point cut is sufficient to address any downside risks. If we are wrong, and the August employment report is as weak as July, then a 50-basis-point cut in September is possible." The economists added that they are skeptical about the "risk" of a "rapid deterioration" in the US labor market. They say this because job openings indicate that demand remains solid, and there is no obvious shock that has caused a downturn.