市场开始定价美联储意外提前降息

PANews reported on August 5th that, according to Golden Ten, traders expect a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points within a week.

<p>PANews reported on August 5 that according to Jinshi, traders expect the Federal Reserve to have a 60% chance of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points within a week.</p>

The market has started pricing in an unexpected early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 3.7%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 75.3%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 21%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September is 22%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Barclays, the second-largest bank in the UK, stated that it now expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to cut interest rates three times this year in September, November, and December, each by 25 basis points. Assuming the labor market will show continued resilience in the August report, the unemployment rate will stop rising. Based on this assumption, a 50 basis point rate cut in September is currently considered unreasonable. However, if the unemployment rate rises further, it will raise concerns that the cooling of the labor market is faster than expected. Looking ahead to 2025, the unemployment rate is expected to gradually decline to 4.2%, and the inflation forecast will remain unchanged. It continues to expect the FOMC to cut rates three times next year in March, June, and September, and expects concerns about lack of further progress on inflation in the second half of 2025 to lead the FOMC to pause rate cuts after the federal funds rate range reaches 3.75-4.00%. In the long run, it continues to believe that the neutral interest rate level is around 3.00-3.25%. (Gold Ten)

Barclays: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Is a rate cut in September confirmed? What did the Federal Reserve say?

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision in the early morning of August 1st Taiwan time. The decision was to keep the interest rate unchanged for the eighth consecutive time, maintaining the benchmark rate between 5.25%-5.5%.

However, during the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that a rate cut in September is possible. This is certainly big news, indicating the start of a rate cut cycle, which could lead to further rate cuts in the future. The U.S. stock market immediately responded with a rally, closing the day with gains across the board.

What specifically did Powell say?
The press conference format was that reporters asked questions, and Powell responded.