Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.33 trillion, of which BTC accounts for 55.334%, or $1.29 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $164 billion.
This week, the price of BTC fell from the highest point of $70,000 on July 29 to $61,000. Due to the net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF and other comprehensive factors, the price of ETH fell from $3,390 to below $3,000. Most of the top 200 projects by market value on CoinMarketCap fell by 10–40%, which was a wider decline than last week. Among them: Neiro-related tokens occupied the hot list this week, and Neiro (ETH) rose by 964.56% in 7 days. Cryptocurrency liquidity is insufficient in summer, and the main liquidity is concentrated in BTC and ETH. The copycats fell, and the popularity of MEME is difficult to sustain, with an average lifespan of 1–2 weeks.
It is worth mentioning that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on Wednesday (July 31) to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that if conditions are ripe, interest rates may be cut in September.
It is expected that the crypto market will continue to perform weakly in August, and the market will reverse after the interest rate cut in September.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on August 3 was 37 (market sentiment turned from greed last week to fear). This week's sentiment: 1 day of fear, 2 days of neutral, and 4 days of greed.
Understand now
Review of the week's major events
1. Swell Network: A snapshot will be taken on the 30th, and the first airdrop is planned for October 8th;
2. YouTube once again has a fake Elon Musk scam that tricks users into sending cryptocurrency;
3. Layer3: Open airdrop application and support token staking on July 30;
4. Vitalik Buterin’s outlook for Ethereum in the next decade, mentioning improved scalability and reduced transaction fees;
5. The savings interest rules of Worldcoin Vault are suspected to have changed, and only the first 500 Worldcoins will generate income;
6. The Discord of Ethereum Layer2 network Metis was hacked, and users were warned not to click on any suspicious links;
7. Grayscale announced that its decentralized AI fund is now open to qualified investors. The fund holds five crypto assets.
8. Matrixport said Bitcoin is currently uncorrelated with Nasdaq;
9. Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio has completed his long-term position in Altcoin;
10. Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 10.5% to 90.67 T, a record high;
11. Stablecoin market value and Tether performance: Stablecoin market value reached 164 billion US dollars, the highest point in the past two years; Tether's net profit in the first half of the year was 5.2 billion US dollars, a record high;
12. Solana DEX surpassed Ethereum in trading volume for the first time in history in July, reaching $55.876 billion;
13. Polymarket has seen explosive growth, with weekly activity increasing approximately 14 times so far this year.
Macroeconomics
1. Federal Reserve policy and market expectations: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, maintaining interest rates unchanged, and not seeking authorization to issue CBDC;
2. On July 28, Trump said at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference that he would fire current SEC Chairman Gray Gensler on the first day of his presidency;
3. On August 1, two American artists filed a lawsuit with the U.S. SEC on Monday, seeking a declaratory judgment from the Louisiana court, determining that their upcoming NFT project would not violate U.S. securities laws;
4. SEC announces Terraform compensation announcement, which will prioritize compensating investors and creditors.
ETF
According to statistics, from July 29 to August 2, the net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs was US$82.4 million; as of August 2, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of US$19.059 billion, currently holding US$15.005 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds US$21.456 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is US$59.383 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: US$169.4 million.
Predicting the future
Upcoming Events
1. Malaysia Blockchain Week 2024 will be held from July 31 to August 1. The event is hosted by Lydian Labs and focuses on education, regulatory advocacy and showcasing innovative projects.
2. WebX Asia 2024 is hosted by Japanese Web3 media CoinPost and will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 28 to 29, 2024. The conference brings together professionals related to crypto assets, blockchain and other Web3 technologies, providing participants with direct interaction with companies, experts, entrepreneurs, investors, government officials and media from Japan and other countries;
3. Aptos will hold a hackathon Code Collision from August 1 to September 30, 2024, with a total prize pool of US$500,000. The hackathon will accept registrations from July 2 to September 30, covering five tracks: DeFi/RWA, Gaming/NFTs, AI/DePIN, Social and other innovations;
4. The "FORESIGHT 2024" annual summit will be held at the Hong Kong Ocean Park Marriott Hotel from August 11 to August 12. The third FORESIGHT annual summit returned to Hong Kong after 15 months. This summit is co-organized by Foresight Ventures, Foresight News and The Block. It aims to provide a platform for global Web3 builders to communicate and exchange ideas, and to build a bridge connecting the East and the West and bridging regional differences.
Project Progress
1. The Starknet Cairo 2.7.0 testnet upgrade is scheduled for August 5;
2. Jupiter active staking rewards are open until August 6. Users need to actively claim ASR rewards, JUP will be automatically staked, and other tokens will be sent to the wallet;
3. Gitcoin Grants 21 will be launched from August 7 to 21;
4. Whales Market founder Dexter announced that the GM token is ready for release, and the news is expected to be released around the 24th. Dexter said that GM will not be a VC pnd coin, nor a cabal meme coin, but a community-centric practical AI coin with the most lines of code written in the past few months.
important events
1. Coinbase narrowed the scope of the subpoena, requiring Gensler to provide only emails from his time as SEC chairman, and the SEC must submit a response by August 5;
2. FTX and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have agreed to a $12.7 billion settlement agreement, and the relevant hearing will be held on August 6;
3. The deadline for filing claims in the Terraform Labs bankruptcy case is set at 5:00 am Beijing time on August 22. Users who filed claims against TFL before January 21, 2024 and those who filed claims against TLL before July 1, 2024 must submit before the general deadline.
Token Unlock
1. 13.62 million Hashflow tokens HFT will be unlocked on August 7, with a value of approximately US$2.47 million, accounting for 3.11% of the circulation;
2. Xai token XAI will unlock 35.88 million on August 9, with a value of approximately US$10.56 million, accounting for 6.91% of the circulation;
3. 32.47 million Immutable tokens IMX will be unlocked on August 9, with a value of approximately US$45.46 million, accounting for 2.11% of the circulation.
about Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is committed to providing detailed and professional analysis of the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to provide clear market insights and practical operation guides for investors of different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play and Earn Web3" series of tutorials, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time observation of the market. Whether you are a novice exploring the crypto field for the first time or an experienced investor seeking in-depth insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner to understand and seize market opportunities.
risk warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
