Odaily星球日报讯 彭博加密分析师 Jamie Coutts 在 X 平台表示，自日元套利交易开始解除以来，比特币经历了显著的价格波动。 Coutts 指出了几个关键点： 1.他今年早些时候低估了未平仓合约（OI）和永续合约资金费率迅速上升的影响； 2.日元套利交易解除前市场的中性立场限制了迄今为止清算的程度； 3.尽管比特币价格可能进一步下跌，但未平仓合约的减少和负资金费率表明比特币横盘整理的可能性更大； 4.预计央行将很快进行干预，这使得比特币在当前价格水平上显得具有吸引力。

Odaily星球日报讯 彭博加密分析师 Jamie Coutts 在 X 平台表示，自日元套利交易开始解除以来，比特币经历了显著的价格波动。 Coutts 指出了几个关键点：1.他今年早些时候低估了未平仓合约（OI）和永续合约资金费率迅速上升的影响；2.日元套利交易解除前市场的中性立场限制了迄今为止清算的程度；3.尽管比特币价格可能进一步下跌，但未平仓合约的减少和负资金费率表明比特币横盘整理的可能性更大；4.预计央行将很快进行干预，这使得比特币在当前价格水平上显得具有吸引力。

彭博加密分析师：比特币横盘整理的可能性比进一步下跌更大

According to Odaily, Bloomberg crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated on the X platform that Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility since the unwinding of the yen carry trade began. Coutts pointed out several key points:

1. He underestimated the impact of the rapid rise in open interest (OI) and perpetual contract funding rates earlier this year.

2. The market's neutral stance before the unwinding of the yen carry trade limited the extent of the liquidation so far.

3. Although Bitcoin's price may decline further, the reduction in open interest and negative funding rates suggest the possibility of Bitcoin consolidating.

4. Central bank intervention is expected soon, making Bitcoin attractive at the current price level.

Odaily Odaily News: Jamie Coutts, a crypto analyst at Bloomberg, said on the X platform that Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations since the yen carry trade began to unwind. Coutts pointed out several key points: 1. He underestimated the impact of the rapid increase in open interest (OI) and perpetual contract funding rates earlier this year; 2. The neutral position of the market before the yen carry trade was unwound has limited the extent of liquidation so far; 3. Although Bitcoin prices may fall further, the reduction in open interest and negative funding rates indicate that Bitcoin is more likely to go sideways; 4. The central bank is expected to intervene soon, which makes Bitcoin attractive at the current price level.

The Bloomberg crypto analyst: The possibility of Bitcoin consolidating sideways is greater than further decline.

According to an analysis published by Rekt Capital on the X platform, based on historical price trends, the current Bitcoin decline may continue for nearly two months, and then enter a new bullish mode before triggering a price breakthrough. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has returned to the low-end of the range, and there are currently about 110 days left until the halving, with further downside potential in the near term. (Cointelegraph)

Analysis: The downward bias of Bitcoin may continue for two months.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Matrixport released a chart today, indicating that the market tends to attribute the plunge in Bitcoin to the unwinding of yen carry trade positions. Many financial market participants who borrowed yen to invest in high-yield assets are now reversing their positions, with Bitcoin becoming the victim in this process. The unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan, coupled with market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, have increased the uncertainty of central bank policies, leading to deleveraging in the financial system. According to some traders, this is the main reason behind the decline in Bitcoin prices.

Matrixport: The market tends to attribute the plunge in Bitcoin to the unwinding of yen carry trade positions.

According to HashKey Group's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding, the current cryptocurrency market has short-term demand for retesting, but will continue to rise in the long run as US dollar liquidity increases. The reasons are: 

The end of the yen rate hike and "carry trade" has limited actual impact on cryptocurrencies. Buffett's use of Japan's ultra-low interest rate funds to buy core assets of Japanese funds (the five major trading companies) has led to the recent rise in the Japanese stock market. This carry trade is now showing signs of reversal due to rate hikes, and many international funds (including Mrs. Watanabe) will sell their international assets to repay some of the loans from Japanese banks. However, the main targets of these previous trades were US Treasuries and core stocks, unrelated to digital currencies.

The Federal Reserve may hold an emergency meeting and implement extraordinary rate cuts. During the "312" period in 2020, the US stock market experienced 4 circuit breakers, and the Fed held special meetings and made extraordinary rate cuts. If there are unseen dangers in this round of financial crisis or geopolitics, the Fed may cut rates again. If this happens, the market will experience a "V-shaped rebound" due to exceeding expectations, but the probability of this scenario is relatively low.

The Middle East war clouds are looming, and the market is waiting for the "first shot". After the assassination of one of the Hamas leaders in Tehran, Iran has vowed retaliation. The financial market is pricing in the escalation of this regional conflict. But whether the "Arc of Resistance" wants to escalate the war at this stage, the market is waiting for Iran's own actions.

The US PMI index has not pointed to a recession, and the market's "trading recession" logic has eased slightly. According to the ISM's service industry survey, the US ISM service PMI rose from 48.8, the lowest level since April 2020, to 51.4 in July, higher than the market expectation of 51, indicating a rebound in US service sector activity. The recession concerns triggered by the non-farm employment data do not seem to be fully confirmed. Therefore, market sentiment has also recovered slightly.

The release of short-term panic has led to violent rebounds in the stock markets of Japan and South Korea today, stabilizing the global financial market. However, the logic of trading recession has not been eliminated, and the market is still waiting for further signals. In the long run, the trend of a weakening US dollar remains unchanged, which will drive the pricing of all risk assets to rise. Bitcoin will be one of the fastest responding assets.