BTC continued to rise overnight, breaking through $60,000. “After the Yellow Sea, there is no need to look at the dangerous places.” It once approached 63k, and is currently resting in the 61-62k range. From the extreme plunge of 49k on August 5, it continued to rise to 61k in just over 3 days, with a total increase of nearly 25%.
I wonder how many times in a year can such an opportunity of a 25% increase in three days appear, and how many times in a person's entire investment career can he fully grasp it? Therefore, when the panic of the crash on August 5 occurred, Jiaolian wrote bluntly in the article "Crash, Reshuffle!" on that day:
To advise others to cut their flesh is either stupid or evil.
If a newbie listens to the call to sell at a loss when he is afraid and sells at 49k, then just 3 days later, if he buys back at 61k, he will immediately lose nearly 1/5 of the BTC, that is, a loss of 20% of the position. 5 BTC sold at a loss, 3 days later there will be 4 BTC left.
Loss of 1 BTC in 3 days.
If he does not buy back, his losses will increase as BTC continues to rise . , he will lose half of his BTC. But even if BTC drops to 49k again, he may still not dare to buy it back, because at that time, there will definitely be more voices telling him that BTC will continue to fall, 30k, 20k,...
The final outcome is likely to be that he loses his position and BTC forever.
On August 7, Jiaolian reviewed the plunge patterns of "312" in 2020 and "519" in 2021 in the article "A big drop reveals real gold, can BTC set a new high again?" and compared and analyzed this wash. The article pointed out: " If the time and space position of 2024 in the BTC cycle is closer to 2020, then in terms of probability, the possibility of rhyming with "312" may be greater. "
Then last night [ August 8th Jiaolian Internal Reference "Have the Short Sellers Been Striked Out?" ], Jiaolian further savored the "519" plunge pattern in 2021 and reviewed the article "Short Sellers Are Striked Out" written on July 22, 2021.
Please note the time of publication of "Short Strikes Out" . Mark it on the candlestick chart and take a look:
Looking at this picture on July 22, 2021, it is not like the picture above, but like the picture below:
Therefore, last night's [ "8.8 Teaching Chain Insider: Have the shorts been struck out?" ] translated as:
The 8.5 crash may not be "519" but "722"?
This is undoubtedly an extremely bold assumption.
In the "belief-doubt" stage, the clash between bullish and bearish views is bound to be fierce.
Since BTC reached a local peak of 73.8k on March 13-14, 2024, it has been 5 months since then.
If we refer to the 10-month wash-out period after the gold ETF was listed and reached its local peak, then BTC is still in the "halfway point" at present.
The gold ETF wash channel was illustrated in the article "Bitcoin's Big Ups and Downs" published by Jiaolian on January 9, 2024, 7 months ago:
Whether it is three strikes or five strikes, through the evaluation test in [ “8.5 Jiaolian Insider: Jiaolian evaluates several key points of BTC under the global plunge” ], it is almost certain that the short-sellers’ fantasy of $30,000 or even $25,000 or even the end of this bull market will eventually be shattered as BTC continues to set new highs.
