Odaily星球日报讯 2025 年 FOMC 票委、波士顿联储主席柯林斯在接受采访时表示，如果通胀继续下行，同时劳动力市场保持强劲，美联储将可能开始放宽利率限制。柯林斯补充说，尽管最新的就业数据低于预期，但美国劳动力市场依然强劲。她警告称，尽管通胀正在回归 2%的目标水平，但速度比预期要慢。（金十）

波士顿联储主席：通胀下行会让美联储降息很快到来

Odaily Odaily News: Collins, 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Boston Fed, said in an interview that if inflation continues to decline and the labor market remains strong, the Fed will likely begin to relax interest rate restrictions. Collins added that although the latest employment data was lower than expected, the U.S. labor market remains strong. She warned that although inflation is returning to the target level of 2%, the speed is slower than expected. (Jinshi)

Boston Fed President: Declining inflation will make the Fed's rate cuts come very soon.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe stated that they remain vigilant about inflation risks and will not hesitate to raise interest rates if necessary. It is expected that inflation will not return to the 2-3% target range by the end of 2025. The committee believes that the current interest rate is still in line with its inflation target. Demand growth is still too strong.

Australia's central bank governor Lowe: Remain vigilant about inflation risks, will not hesitate to raise interest rates if necessary.

Table of Contents
- Bar kin: Time to Evaluate Decisions
- Schmid: Not Ready to Support Rate Cut Yet
- Market Estimates 56.5% Chance of 2 Rate Cuts in September
The US experienced an unexpected surge in unemployment last week, exacerbating market concerns about an impending economic recession, which led to a sharp short-term decline in US stocks and even dragged down global investment markets. Although the current panic has somewhat subsided, the market has already begun to digest a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut path.
The futures market indicates that investors expect about a 1% rate cut this year, and some economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 2 notches in September.

Federal Reserve officials unanimously stated: Inflation has cooled significantly, and there is ample time to make decisions...The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 2 points in September is over 50%.

Odaily reports that JPMorgan Chase now believes the likelihood of the US economy falling into recession by the end of this year is 35%, higher than the 25% at the beginning of last month. In a report to clients on Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase economists led by Bruce KAS wrote that US news "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected, with preliminary signs of layoffs." The team maintained a 45% chance of the economy falling into recession in the second half of 2025. "We have moderately increased our assessment of the risk of economic recession, while our adjustment to the interest rate outlook is greater," KAS and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan Chase now believes there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high in the long term, compared to a 50% chance predicted just two months ago. As inflationary pressures in the US decline, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.