Odaily星球日报讯 2024 年 FOMC 票委、里士满联储主席巴尔金表示，美联储有时间评估美国经济是否正在正常化，或者是否在走弱，后者将需要官员们采取更有力的行动。堪萨斯联储主席施密德则表示，尽管通胀超过目标，劳动力市场仍然健康，但他还没有准备好支持降息。据悉，施密德是较为鹰派的美联储官员之一，他表示，两年前通胀激增至数十年来的高点，需要谨慎评估进展，“我们应该看数据中的最坏情况，而不是最好情况。”（金十）

堪萨斯联储主席施密德：还没有准备好支持降息

Odaily Odaily News: Barkin, a 2024 FOMC voting member and president of the Richmond Fed, said the Fed has time to assess whether the U.S. economy is normalizing or weakening, the latter of which will require officials to take more forceful action. Kansas Fed President Schmid said that although inflation has exceeded the target and the labor market remains healthy, he is not ready to support a rate cut. It is reported that Schmid is one of the more hawkish Fed officials. He said that inflation surged to a multi-decade high two years ago and progress needs to be carefully assessed. &quot;We should look at the worst case scenario in the data, not the best case scenario.&quot; (Jinshi)

Kansas Fed President Schmid: Not Yet Ready to Support Rate Cuts

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In an interview, FOMC voter and President of the Boston Fed, Susan Collins, stated that if inflation continues to decline and the labor market remains strong, the Federal Reserve may begin to ease interest rate restrictions. Collins added that although the latest employment data was lower than expected, the US labor market remains strong. She warned that while inflation is returning to the 2% target level, the pace is slower than expected.

Boston Fed President: Declining inflation will make the Fed's rate cuts come very soon.

Table of Contents
- Bar kin: Time to Evaluate Decisions
- Schmid: Not Ready to Support Rate Cut Yet
- Market Estimates 56.5% Chance of 2 Rate Cuts in September
The US experienced an unexpected surge in unemployment last week, exacerbating market concerns about an impending economic recession, which led to a sharp short-term decline in US stocks and even dragged down global investment markets. Although the current panic has somewhat subsided, the market has already begun to digest a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut path.
The futures market indicates that investors expect about a 1% rate cut this year, and some economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 2 notches in September.

Federal Reserve officials unanimously stated: Inflation has cooled significantly, and there is ample time to make decisions...The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 2 points in September is over 50%.

According to Odaily, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the new chief market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in his first report that the recent collapse of the US stock market has dispersed some of the bubbles in the market, but if economic growth continues to slow down and the Federal Reserve does not show urgency in monetary policy easing, then holdings and valuations still face risks. Lakos-Bujas told clients that "stocks are no longer a one-way upward trade, but an increasingly two-way debate about downside growth risks, the timing of Fed rate cuts, crowded positions, high valuations, the election and heightened geopolitical uncertainty." (Cailian News)