Odaily星球日报讯 机构表示，新西兰联储本周将迎来关键决策，经济学家和投资者无法确定该行届时将启动降息还是等待通胀回归目标的进一步证据。 在接受调查的 21 位经济学家中，有 12 位预计新西兰联储将把利率维持在 5.5%不变，但有 9 位预测其将开启降息周期。 ASB Bank 驻奥克兰首席经济学家 Nick Tuffley 表示，货币政策过度紧缩的风险已经成为现实，新西兰联储降息时机已到，但这很大程度上取决于其预测发生了多大变化。在不到两年的时间里，新西兰经济可能出现第三次衰退的迹象，通胀放缓的程度也超出央行的预期。但部分国内物价依然居高不下，如果现在启动降息，这将比央行三个月前刚刚发出的信号提前了一年。这对新西兰联储来说将是一个巨大的转变。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 机构表示，新西兰联储本周将迎来关键决策，经济学家和投资者无法确定该行届时将启动降息还是等待通胀回归目标的进一步证据。在接受调查的 21 位经济学家中，有 12 位预计新西兰联储将把利率维持在 5.5%不变，但有 9 位预测其将开启降息周期。ASB Bank 驻奥克兰首席经济学家 Nick Tuffley 表示，货币政策过度紧缩的风险已经成为现实，新西兰联储降息时机已到，但这很大程度上取决于其预测发生了多大变化。在不到两年的时间里，新西兰经济可能出现第三次衰退的迹象，通胀放缓的程度也超出央行的预期。但部分国内物价依然居高不下，如果现在启动降息，这将比央行三个月前刚刚发出的信号提前了一年。这对新西兰联储来说将是一个巨大的转变。（金十）

经济学家观点：新西兰联储本周是否降息存在不确定性

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Institutions indicate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will face a critical decision this week, and economists and investors are unable to determine whether the bank will initiate a rate cut or wait for further evidence of inflation returning to the target. Among the 21 economists surveyed, 12 expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, but 9 predict it will start a rate-cutting cycle. Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank in Auckland, said the risk of overly tight monetary policy has become a reality, and the time is right for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates, but this largely depends on how much its forecasts have changed. In less than two years, the New Zealand economy may show signs of a third recession, and the extent of disinflation has exceeded the central bank's expectations. However, some domestic prices remain high, and if a rate cut is initiated now, it would be a year earlier than the signal the central bank issued just three months ago. This would be a significant shift for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Odaily Odaily News Agency said that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will have a key decision this week, and economists and investors are unsure whether the bank will start cutting interest rates or wait for further evidence that inflation is returning to the target. Of the 21 economists surveyed, 12 expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.5%, but 9 predict that it will start a cycle of rate cuts. Nick Tuffley, chief economist of ASB Bank in Auckland, said that the risk of excessive tightening of monetary policy has become a reality, and the time has come for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, but much depends on how much its forecasts have changed. In less than two years, New Zealand&#39;s economy may show signs of a third recession, and the degree of slowing inflation has exceeded the central bank&#39;s expectations. But some domestic prices are still high. If interest rate cuts are initiated now, it will be one year earlier than the signal just sent by the central bank three months ago. This will be a huge change for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. (Jinshi)

Economists' view: There is uncertainty whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates this week.

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to the latest survey of economists by Bloomberg, nearly four-fifths of respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points in September, and the median estimate shows a 10% probability of an emergency rate cut before the September meeting. (Jinshi)

Bloomberg survey: The Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned against allowing the president to interfere with the formulation of monetary policy, as it will ultimately damage the economy over time. "It's a foolish game to let politicians get involved," Summers said on Friday. "The ultimate result is higher inflation and a weaker economy."

The day before Summers made these remarks, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stated that he believes the president should have a certain "say" in the Federal Reserve's policy formulation. The former president had urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to loosen policy during his tenure, saying, "I think in many cases, my instinct is better than theirs or their chairman's."

"I'm really shocked at the poor quality of this idea," Summers said, referring to Trump's proposal, "The president has a lot of things to do at any given time, and in fact is much less closely connected to the economy than the 19 Fed governors and chairs who are constantly reviewing every economic statistic."

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Summers emphasized that central banks around the world have been granted independence for a long time, as they recognize that politicians have a "serious conflict of interest" when it comes to monetary policy. He stated that officials "will always be tempted to print more money, lower interest rates - to floor the accelerator to try to boost the economy."

Summers, who held senior economic positions in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said this pressure increases people's inflationary expectations, which will push up long-term interest rates. "You'll get higher inflation, but you won't get any meaningful output growth."

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers opposes political interference in the Federal Reserve and expects a 50-basis-point rate cut in September.

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