The situation in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the global financial market has to passively pay the bill. The market is still in a stage of shock adjustment, and contract users should pay attention to risks.
Judging from the current trend, the market is still fluctuating at the daily level. Before the data is released, the overall market trend will fluctuate in the range of 58,000-61,000. Ethereum will perform relatively well and will fluctuate in the range of 2,650-2,830 as a whole, and Sol will fluctuate in the range of 140-153 as a whole.
It can be said that the dog dealer is currently waiting for the release of CPI data, and will choose to trade after the data is released. Pay more attention to Ethereum in the next few days. From the current point of view, Ethereum seems to be starting to gain momentum. As for whether there will be an independent market, we will wait and see the market trends.
At the 4-hour level, we should pay attention to the position near 57,800. If this position is broken, the market will continue to move downward to test the position near 54,600.
The Space on Musk and Trump X is over. Musk kept saying "Yeah" and Trump kept talking. During the chat, Meme was not idle. Nearly 160,000+ new coins were generated on Pump. There will be no winner in PVP. The only winner is Pump who runs the casino.
The market currently lacks the engine for a big bull market!
Looking back at the engines of the last bull market, DeFi was the first to bear the brunt (unlimited nesting dolls, which increased funds out of thin air); DeFi, NFT, GameFi and Meme, etc., emerged around Ethereum; the four-wheel drive made Ethereum have a miracle of spiral rise from 100 to 4000;
This is a series of application innovations driven by the Ethereum infrastructure in the last round. However, we have found that we have not seen any special innovations in this round.
In fact, not only is Ethereum lacking innovation, but the entire Crypto is temporarily stuck in this dilemma; but as the king of public chains, Ethereum is entrusted with the high hopes of the entire crypto market.
Sol seized this opportunity through the first window period mentioned above and achieved market prosperity, but is this prosperity temporary or lasting? If Sol only relies on meme to drive the growth of the public chain, how long can this driving force last? Will it last the entire bull market?
Therefore, in this cycle, it becomes particularly important whether there are more novel things appearing on a large scale in the market. Otherwise, for the market, it may further lower the expectations of these public chains in the future bull market (compared with the increase in the previous round).
Where is the engine of the future?
I think the fundamentals of the ecosystem on the Ethereum chain are more stable, and the projects have more landing and practical application scenarios. On the other hand, Sol still has more meme hype, and there are fewer applications that can actually land and generate value.
But we cannot deny that Sol is now more favored and expected by capital and the market, but in the long run, I am more optimistic about the ETH ecosystem.
Second, I think the outbreak of Ethereum may come from four factors:
1. Depend on the capital inflow brought by ETFs.
2. How much liquidity reduction can be brought about by staking itself (whether the subsequent chips of ETF can be pledged will also have a key impact on the rise of the market).
3. The possible point of explosion is whether L2 can produce phenomenal applications and indirectly bring value to Ethereum.
4. Next, we still have to see the popularity of tracks such as gamefi, defi, and meme. For defi and gamefi, it depends on whether new gameplay can be born. Because I personally feel that although rwa can make relatively considerable income and bring capital inflows to the chain, it lacks the leverage effect and does not have the attribute of making a small profit with a big risk. It is more of a big investor, and the wealth growth effect it can bring to retail investors is relatively small. Moreover, rwa is not a project that can bring more daily activity, transaction volume and gas fees to the public chain.
Compared with RWA, the empowerment brought by AI and SocialFi accounts for a smaller proportion. If SocialFi becomes popular, it can also drive the demand for Ethereum, because participating in its market will consume it.
The recent market focus is on the CPI data at 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, which will determine the extent of the interest rate cut in September to the greatest extent. As for the interest rate cut itself, there is no suspense at present. Judging from the market's rebound after the decline of the yen last week, the possibility of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve no longer exists, and current data shows that the probability of a recession in the United States is also very low, and the risk has come to an end for the time being.
When the cryptocurrency market reaches a certain stage, what is needed is not a short-term surge or plummet altcoin, but a relatively stable BTC that can reach new highs in the cycle. Waiting for the confirmation of the second exploration of the right bottom of the BTC. After this wave, the altcoin season is coming.
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