Odaily星球日报讯 Bitmex 首席增长官 Raphael Polansky 在 X 表示，有一个有趣的事实：在过去的 170 天（0.5 年）里，比特币一直在 25%的范围内交易。自 7 月以来，由于一些重大的行业和宏观经济事件，包括美国经济衰退的担忧、特朗普对比特币的官方支持、日元加息以及健康的 ETF 流入，比特币的隐含波动率飙升。 然而现在是 8 月中旬，比特币的交易价格还是稳定在 6 万美元左右。

Odaily星球日报讯 Bitmex 首席增长官 Raphael Polansky 在 X 表示，有一个有趣的事实：在过去的 170 天（0.5 年）里，比特币一直在 25%的范围内交易。自 7 月以来，由于一些重大的行业和宏观经济事件，包括美国经济衰退的担忧、特朗普对比特币的官方支持、日元加息以及健康的 ETF 流入，比特币的隐含波动率飙升。然而现在是 8 月中旬，比特币的交易价格还是稳定在 6 万美元左右。

BitMEX Raphael：波动率飙升的BTC价格还是稳定在6万美元左右

Odaily reports that BitMEX's Chief Growth Officer Raphael Polansky stated an interesting fact: over the past 170 days (0.5 years), Bitcoin has been trading within a 25% range. Since July, Bitcoin's implied volatility has soared due to some major industry and macroeconomic events, including concerns about a US recession, Trump's official support for Bitcoin, the yen rate hike, and healthy ETF inflows. However, now in mid-August, Bitcoin's trading price is still stable around $60,000.

Odaily Odaily News Bitmex Chief Growth Officer Raphael Polansky said in X that there is an interesting fact: Bitcoin has been trading in a 25% range for the past 170 days (0.5 years). Since July, Bitcoin&#39;s implied volatility has soared due to some major industry and macroeconomic events, including concerns about a US recession, Trump&#39;s official support for Bitcoin, yen rate hikes, and healthy ETF inflows. However, it is now mid-August and Bitcoin is still trading steadily at around $60,000.

BitMEX Raphael: BTC prices remain stable around $60,000 despite soaring volatility.

According to the market analysis by 10x Research, explaining trends is particularly challenging at critical moments in the economy and financial markets, as old narratives are questioned and new ones are gradually forming. During this period, traders and investors must closely monitor market signals. It is crucial to recognize that the market often focuses on a mainstream narrative before shifting attention to the next topic. Understanding this dynamic is essential for effectively following the market transformation.

After the sale of BTC in Germany at the end of June, the market's concerns shifted to the impending compensation of Mt.Gox in early July. With the attack on Trump and his subsequent choice of Bitcoin holder JD Vance as the vice presidential candidate, the story took a dramatic turn. As Trump's chances of being elected surged to 70%, Bitcoin's price was closely linked to these political developments. However, this momentum was abruptly halted when President Biden announced on July 21 that he would not run for president in 2025.

Following the discussion of Bitcoin strategic reserves, Bitcoin once again broke through the $70,000 mark, raising high expectations for Trump's speech at the Nashville Bitcoin conference. Unfortunately, the speech did not live up to the hype. When the US government transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin rally came to an end. The trading range of $60,000 to $70,000 has remained stable, but a significant shift in this range is imminent.

10x Research: Bitcoin may see a major change in the trading range of $60,000 to $70,000.

According to the trading platform Megabit, in the recent few hours, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated downward, currently falling below $58,000 and rebounding slightly, temporarily reported at $58,092, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 5%. Megabit Research Institute analyst stated that on August 6th, the global financial market experienced violent fluctuations, Bitcoin was oversold to $49,000 and then rebounded quickly, and fluctuated in the $60,000 range, but did not break through the pressure zone above $63,000, and demand for correction appeared, but the possibility of a sharp drop in the short term is not high, and it may fluctuate and consolidate in the $55,000-$56,000 range, and then choose a direction again. Although the voices of economic recession are endless, in the long run, Bitcoin can serve as a "safe-haven asset", while Altcoins will be severely affected by the decline in liquidity and risk appetite, so investors may be more inclined to transfer funds from high-risk assets such as low-market-value cryptocurrencies to safer investments.

Megabit analyst: Bitcoin has experienced short-term correction in demand, and may fluctuate and consolidate, but it is still a "safe-haven asset" in the long run.

Odaily reports that according to a chart released by Matrixport, the 30-day actual volatility difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin has remained between 1.0 and 1.5, indicating that during periods of high volatility, Ethereum's volatility is 50% higher than Bitcoin's. Due to Ethereum's poor performance since the current bull market, its high volatility has reduced its appeal to investors. However, as long as the volatility difference remains in this range, buying Ethereum volatility at low levels may be an attractive opportunity.