One of the hot topics that many people are paying attention to today (August 13) is probably the discussion between Musk and Trump on Space on X. The entire conversation lasted nearly 2 and a half hours and had more than 1 million listeners. During the conversation, Trump talked about many topics, including previous shootings, illegal immigration, Biden's withdrawal from the election, etc., but the two bigwigs did not mention the crypto industry in this conversation, which seemed to disappoint some friends.
Even so, MemeCoin still caught the wave of popularity very well. A large number of related concept MemeCoins were born on Pumpfun at the same time. Because Musk frequently said "Yeah" during the conversation, the related concept coin Yeah became one of the most popular concept coins. The market value of this MemeCoin once rose to 1.5 million US dollars 30 minutes after its deployment, but the fluctuation was also huge. As of the time of writing this article, the market value has fallen back to around 480,000 US dollars. As shown in the figure below.
Next, the key information that deserves more attention may be the US CPI data tomorrow (August 14). Because the interest rate cut is basically no longer a foregone conclusion, the CPI data will have a certain impact on the specific extent of the interest rate cut in September.
Market speculation is often based on expectations. Since the expectation of interest rate cuts has been hyped for a long time, the related impacts are estimated to have been priced in long ago. Therefore, even if there is a rate cut in September, we will most likely not usher in a bull market immediately. On the contrary, market fluctuations before and after the rate cut may be relatively large. While looking for new opportunities, we must also pay attention to short-term risks.
As for how much impact the interest rate cut will have on the future market (especially in 2025), this will mainly depend on the overall economic situation at that time, and it is not ruled out that a larger black swan event will occur at the same time as the interest rate cut. If we still have expectations for a big bull market, we may need to wait patiently for a larger-scale narrative or a major change in fundamentals.
The recent market is still relatively boring, and even many friends have become more pessimistic, but I will continue to remain optimistic.
In the previous article (August 11), we briefly discussed the topic of SOL through Hualihuawai, and also discussed the expectation of the big bull market in 2025 through the backup account of Hualihuawai DAO. Then, some friends left messages to express their disagreement, saying that SOL could not reach $1,000, but I did not respond to this because I did not say that SOL would reach $1,000 in the article. If you only like to read the title of the article, it is better to check Twitter directly.
However, I found that the two articles recently published by Hualihuawai have greatly increased the number of readers and completion rate of the articles due to some processing of the titles and content. In the past, the long articles of several thousand words on methodology that took a lot of time to write were read by relatively few people, with an average reading volume of only about 1,000, and the proportion of reading times was also very poor, only about 3%. On the contrary, the two recent hot fast-food articles on ETH and SOL have been read by many people, with an average reading volume of more than 20,000 on all platforms (public accounts and other platforms), and the length is also relatively shorter than before, so the completion rate has also increased, reaching an average of more than 40%.
This also made me realize: Next, should I write to increase the number of readers and completion rate, or continue to write the kind of practical content and methodologies that few people read?
After thinking for a moment, I finally decided not to consider this problem. After all, I have persisted in writing more than 500 articles. The original intention of doing this is to keep myself learning while being able to output some of my own learning records, thoughts, and summaries, and then share them with those who are on the same frequency and are also interested in the long-term development of the encryption field.
As for the issue of how to expand the self-media, although the influence has been improved to a certain extent with the rapid increase in the number of people following Hualihuawai, there seems to be more and more black fans (I can only say that there are too many impetuous people in this field. Recently, I have blocked some people who like to swear and complain in the public account), but I have been persuading myself to keep my heart calm and keep my original intention. I will continue to write whatever I want to write. I will write casually and everyone can read it casually. It is actually quite good to maintain this state. Be a small and beautiful (niche) self-media, and let other things go with the flow.
In the previous article of Hualihuawai DAO Backup Account, we mainly made some scenario-based assumptions about the bull market based on some historical data. In this issue, we will continue to follow the previous scenario and make some idealized guesses:
- A new round of MemeCoin craze will come in the third quarter of 2024
- A new round of copycat season will start in late 2024 or early 2025
- Bitcoin price will reach new ATH in Q1 2025
Of course, the above are all assumptions, that is, just some guesses. If they are in line with your personal expectations, you can still make the necessary arrangements now. If you disagree, then just keep moving forward.
In previous articles of Hualihuawai, we also mentioned that even if 2025 brings a big bull market in this cycle, it will not last long, probably only 1-3 months. This period may be the time when people are the most FOMO and crazy. At the same time, it is also the best stage for us to sell in batches.
Next, let’s review the overall market development and narrative changes since this year:
1) AI Narrative
Since the beginning of this year (2024), the AI sector has continued to see a new round of gains, and this heat has continued until around March. If you bought AI project tokens such as FET, RENDER, and TAO during the 2022-2023 bear market, then you will have a very good performance in terms of floating profit.
But if you bought it after seeing AI narratives become popular again in March, then the result is predictable.
2) RWA Narrative
Next, the RWA narrative began to take over the AI narrative. With the news about BlackRock and RWA in late March and early April (and some other good news appearing at the same time), occupying important positions in major crypto media and self-media, some tokens related to the RWA sector also ushered in a high market.
RWA-related concept currencies such as ONDO and PENDLE also reached a staged peak around May. At the same time, old projects such as MAKER and AVAX that are transforming to RWA or vigorously developing RWA business also had a new round of good performance during this period with the help of RWA.
3) MemeCoin Narrative
As the hype of RWA reached its peak, MemeCoin continued a new round of relay. However, the hype of MemeCoin also showed two-level differentiation at this stage. The overall performance of old MemeCoins such as DOGE and SHIB did not satisfy people. On the contrary, MemeCoins such as PEPE performed better, and PEPE even reached a record high at the end of May.
During this period, Solana continued to establish its position as the king of MemeCoin. The exaggerated performance of various MemeCoins on Solana attracted many people's attention, and some MemeCoins increased by hundreds or even thousands of times in a short period of time. I remember that many friends in the group were also discussing various new MemeCoins enthusiastically.
We have only briefly listed the three most popular narratives on a timeline. At the same time, the market's enthusiasm and FOMO sentiment have also led to rapid price increases and fluctuations in some tokens in other sectors. However, many narratives were hyped for a short time, and some even ended in less than two weeks.
Therefore, if we look back, we can easily find that March to May this year was a relatively good window for phased exit. However, many people also chose to re-enter the market during this period and bought at the peak of the phased peak and were trapped.
As the first phase window of this cycle has passed, do we have any new opportunities for phased exit (which may be a return on investment for some partners)?
Let’s continue with the topic of the previous article. From the perspective of the overall market value, the current situation is not optimistic due to liquidity issues. The overall market has been on a downward trend since May. Even BTC once fell below 0.618 on August 5, and also fell below MA200, entering the so-called bear market price range.
Interestingly, on July 4, BTC fell below MA200 and entered a short bear market, and then recovered above the line 10 days later. On August 4, BTC fell below MA200 again, and has not recovered as of now (August 13). In this basic market environment, many people may be more concerned about the question: Is there still hope for Altcoin?
Because the market is unpredictable, let's continue to guess (assume):
Let’s first look at the data of TOTAL2, as shown in the figure below.
Based on the above chart, the ideal situation is that by the beginning of 2025 (first quarter), the total market value of Altcoin will reach a high of more than 1.2 trillion US dollars or higher, and then a new round of altcoin season will officially begin.
If you are more conservative, you can consider selling your Altcoin in batches to exit the market in stages. If you have a higher risk appetite, you can wait until the total market value of altcoins exceeds 1.7 trillion US dollars before considering exiting the market. My personal plan is to start selling Altcoin positions when it is close to 2 trillion US dollars. This has been explained and shared in previous articles of Huali Huawai.
Of course, a prerequisite for the above ideal state is that BTC can break through the ATH sometime in early 2025 (or simply rise to more than $100,000). This will put the market into a new and greater FOMO state. People will choose to re-enter the altcoin market for fear of missing out, and market manipulators will take the opportunity to launch a new round of hype to complete the high-level takeover game of retail investors.
As we have mentioned above, this process may last for 1-3 months. For example, when the market reaches a certain peak in June-July 2025, this bull market will end. Then, we will see a mess and a new bear market cycle will begin in late 2025.
If the above situation does not happen, then if you are pessimistic about the market, I will agree with you. Of course, the above are all speculations and scripts, not specific trading guidance. We just provide a different perspective for entertainment purposes only.
In the long run, Bitcoin’s next stop will definitely be $100,000.
Looking at the longer term, we may have the opportunity to see Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 in our lifetime.
As for what you would do now, I don’t know and I don’t offer any specific advice, but I personally would continue to stock up on BTC.
