BTC 市场显示出卖方主导迹象，预计短期内比特币价格将再次下跌，可能下跌幅度在 5,000 美元左右，目前 14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）不再显示超卖情况，这意味着市场也许还有进一步下跌的空间，与近期卖方在 60,000 美元区间占据主导地位的状况相符合。

<h3>每日市场简报  2024/08/13  12:00  UTC+8 </h3><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/ee67d47d7c571681e4ae340d7df2a9f1.jpg"><h3>分析师观点</h3>“在经历了几个月相对沉重的分配压力之后，比特币持有者的行为似乎又转向了持有（HODL）和积累。在过去 3 个月内，共有超过 37.4 万枚 BTC 转入 LTH（长期持有）状态。” - Glassnode“SOL ETF 在明年是否能通过取决于政府是否换人。Gensler 不会留任，政府也不会再选用 Gensler2.0，如果共和党接管，一切皆有可能，尤其是特朗普一直在与这些人建立某种关系并达成某种突破。” -  Eric Balchunas，ETF 分析师 @Bloomberg“BTC 市场显示出卖方主导迹象，预计短期内比特币价格将再次下跌，可能下跌幅度在 5,000 美元左右，目前 14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）不再显示超卖情况，这意味着市场也许还有进一步下跌的空间，与近期卖方在 60,000 美元区间占据主导地位的状况相符合。” - Alex Kuptsikevich ，高级市场分析师 @FxPro<h3>市场热点</h3><ul><li>昨日美国比特币现货 ETF 净流入 3900 万美元。</li><li>昨日美国以太坊现货 ETF 净流入 2500 万美元。</li><li>Tether Treasury 在以太坊链上新增铸造 10 亿枚 USDT。</li><li>灰度推出 MKR 信托基金 Grayscale MakerDAO Trust。</li><li>Mt. Gox 债权人的偿还或已接近尾声。</li></ul><h3>投融信息</h3><ul><li>Tether 对汇款和财务管理平台 Kem 进行 300 万美元战略投资。</li><li>Essential 完成由 Archetype 领投的 1100 万美元 A 轮融资，并推出 Pre-Alpha Devnet。</li></ul><h3>监管动态</h3><ul><li>香港金管局及数码港推出GenA.I.沙盒，推动金融业应用人工智能。</li></ul>

BIT 每日市场简报 08/14 - 短期内比特币价格将再次下跌 5,000 美元左右

The BTC market shows signs of seller dominance, and it is expected that the BTC price will fall again in the short term, with a possible decline of around $5,000. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) no longer shows an oversold condition, which means that the market may still have room for further decline, consistent with the recent dominance of sellers in the $60,000 price range.

<h3>Daily Market Brief 2024/08/13 12:00 UTC+8</h3><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/ee67d47d7c571681e4ae340d7df2a9f1.jpg"><h3> Analyst Views</h3> “After several months of relatively heavy distribution pressure, Bitcoin holder behavior seems to have shifted back to holding (HODL) and accumulation. In the past 3 months, a total of more than 374,000 BTC have been transferred to LTH (long-term holding) status .” - Glassnode “ Whether the SOL ETF gets passed next year depends on a change in administration . Gensler isn’t going to stay, and the administration isn’t going to pick Gensler 2.0, but if the Republicans take over, anything is possible, especially since Trump has been building some kind of relationship with these guys and getting some kind of breakthrough.” - Eric Balchunas, ETF Analyst @Bloomberg “BTC markets are showing signs of seller dominance and we expect another short-term drop in the price of Bitcoin , possibly by around $5,000. The 14-day RSI is no longer oversold, which means there may be further room for the market to fall, consistent with the recent dominance of sellers in the $60,000 range.” - Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst @FxPro<h3> Market Hotspots</h3><ul><li> Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of US$39 million .</li><li> Yesterday, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of US$25 million .</li><li> Tether Treasury minted an additional 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum chain .</li><li> Grayscale launches the MKR trust fund Grayscale MakerDAO Trust .</li><li> Repayment of Mt. Gox creditors may be nearing completion .</li></ul><h3> Investment and Financing Information</h3><ul><li> Tether makes $3 million strategic investment in remittance and financial management platform Kem.</li><li> Essential completes $11 million Series A funding round led by Archetype and launches Pre-Alpha Devnet.</li></ul><h3> Regulatory developments</h3><ul><li> The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Cyberport launched the GenA.I. Sandbox to promote the application of artificial intelligence in the financial industry.</li></ul>

BIT Daily Market Brief 08/14 - Bitcoin price to drop by around $5,000 again in the short term

On August 12, Bitfinex released a report stating that last week, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, rising nearly 28% from the recent low of around $49,000, which was the lowest price since February. This rebound has brought BTC back above the critical $60,000 level, after experiencing a significant sell-off in August, with the price dropping 33.32% from the cycle high and all-time high of $73,666. This is the largest correction in the current cycle.

Key indicators, such as the Mayer Multiple (which compares Bitcoin's current price to its 200-day moving average (200DMA)), provide insights into the severity of this correction. During the recent decline, the Mayer Multiple dropped to 0.88, a level not seen since November 2022, indicating that Bitcoin's trading price is significantly below its historical average trend, entering a strongly bearish phase.

On-chain data also highlights the intensity of this sell-off. The short-term holder cost basis (STH cost basis), which represents the average purchase price of recent buyers, is currently at $64,860. The spot price of Bitcoin has recently approached the -1 standard deviation (SD) range below this STH cost basis, which has historically occurred on only about 7.1% of trading days. This reflects the severity of the current market conditions.

The short-term holder MVRV ratio (which compares the current market price to the purchase price of new investors) shows that this group is holding the largest unrealized losses since the 2022 bear market low. Overall, these indicators suggest an increase in bearish sentiment and pressure among short-term investors, which typically occurs at local bottoms.

The US economy continues to show resilience, despite ongoing concerns about potential slowdown, with recent data supporting a more optimistic outlook. Last week, the significant decline in unemployment claims and the steady growth in wholesale inventories provided a solid foundation for economic growth, particularly in the second quarter, when US wholesale inventories played a critical role in the economic expansion.

In the latest news from the crypto space, Harris has emerged as the frontrunner in the 2024 US presidential race, leading Trump by a narrow margin in betting odds and recent polls. As her campaign momentum builds, speculation about her potential crypto currency stance is also increasing, especially as her team has started engaging with industry executives. This engagement suggests that crypto currency policy may become a focus in the coming months, sparking interest and anticipation within the crypto community.

Meanwhile, major financial institutions, such as BlackRock and Nasdaq, have made progress in the digital asset market, recently submitting applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch options trading on BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF. This move follows the SEC's approval of several well-known companies to launch Ethereum-linked ETFs, marking a significant expansion of digital asset investment options. As these developments unfold, the SEC continues to play a crucial role in shaping the crypto currency landscape, as evidenced by its recent decision to delay the approval of Hashdex's proposed ETF, which aims to hold physical Bitcoin and Ethereum, until September 30, 2024, reflecting the SEC's cautious approach in carefully evaluating the impact of new digital asset products on the market.

Bitfinex reported: Bitcoin began to recover after experiencing the largest correction of the current cycle this week.

Summary
· After relatively heavy distribution pressure for several months, the behavior of Bitcoin holders appears to be shifting towards holding and accumulating.
· Activity in the spot market indicates that selling pressure has increased significantly recently, and this trend has not yet fully subsided.
· Compared to the ATH breakthroughs of past cycles, the proportion of network wealth currently held by the long-term holder group is relatively large.
· Overall, on-chain conditions indicate that the Bitcoin holder community is confident.
Large wallets return to the cryptocurrency holding mode
As the market begins to slowly recover from last week's selloff, there is a noticeable uncertainty among digital asset investors...

Glassnode: Who is aggressively buying Bitcoin in the current market?

According to the trading platform Megabit, in the recent few hours, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated downward, currently falling below $58,000 and rebounding slightly, temporarily reported at $58,092, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 5%. Megabit Research Institute analyst stated that on August 6th, the global financial market experienced violent fluctuations, Bitcoin was oversold to $49,000 and then rebounded quickly, and fluctuated in the $60,000 range, but did not break through the pressure zone above $63,000, and demand for correction appeared, but the possibility of a sharp drop in the short term is not high, and it may fluctuate and consolidate in the $55,000-$56,000 range, and then choose a direction again. Although the voices of economic recession are endless, in the long run, Bitcoin can serve as a "safe-haven asset", while Altcoins will be severely affected by the decline in liquidity and risk appetite, so investors may be more inclined to transfer funds from high-risk assets such as low-market-value cryptocurrencies to safer investments.

Megabit analyst: Bitcoin has experienced short-term correction in demand, and may fluctuate and consolidate, but it is still a "safe-haven asset" in the long run.