Overnight, the US CPI data was released, and the annual consumer inflation rate was 2.9%, which fell beyond expectations and returned to the 2 era for the first time. Combined with [“ 8.14 Education Chain Insider: US PPI is lower than expected, BlackRock said the Fed will cut interest rates in September ”], the footsteps of the US dollar interest rate cut cycle are getting closer and closer. Affected by this positive impact, all US stock indexes and A-shares rose today. However, BTC fell after failing to hit 62k yesterday, and fell back to 58k today.
It is still Wall Street professional players who have entered the market, and their control level is really beyond reproach. BlackRock's ETF Nearly 350,000 BTC spot has been accumulated. The total holdings of all US spot BTC ETFs are almost catching up with Satoshi Nakamoto. The spot price is still tightly controlled. God knows how much these big capitals will absorb before they let go of the reins and let the market gallop!
Is the current price of around $60,000 high or low? That depends on the frame of reference. According to the original [ power law ] model, the low value on January 1, 2025 is $35,000, the median value is $100,000, and the high value is $378,000. Using this as a reference, the current price is on the lower side of the median.
However, the power law is a double logarithmic coordinate system. That is to say, to achieve exponential growth of a certain magnitude, the time required must also be extended exponentially accordingly. For example, if it takes 100 days to grow 10 times from 10 to 100, then it will take 1000 days to grow 10 times from 100 to 1000.
In other words, the growth rate is getting slower and slower - if observed in a linear time coordinate system.
This problem is also related to human cognitive psychology and physiological factors: people's desire for money growth increases exponentially. When you earn 1 million from 100,000, you need to earn 1 million from 1 million to 10 million to reach the same level - although the latter earns 10 times more (9 million) than the former (900,000)!
The more wealth a person has, the less likely it is to experience the joy of gain. A rich person with 100 million assets needs to earn 10,000 times more money than a poor person with 10,000 assets to barely get the same sense of satisfaction.
For this reason, human beings’ desire for exponential growth in investment value is natural, but the power law takes a longer time to achieve the same order of magnitude of growth, which is unbearable for human desire!
In other words, human desire is super power law. It hopes to achieve exponential value growth in linear time!
Changing the time axis of the power law to a linear axis, we get the rainbow graph:
It is easy to see from the graph that as time goes by, the value growth is getting smaller and smaller in magnitude. Even from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, the actual operating range of the market fell out of the rainbow chart . The lower limit of .
In the more than 60 years from 1932 to 1994, the S&P 500 index of US stocks achieved an excellent fit of linear time and exponential growth (although the absolute speed is a bit low compared to BTC). See the figure below:
However, when you formulate a buy-low-sell-high trading strategy in the next 30 years according to the price corridor of the first 60 years, you will be thrown off the train very quickly because the S&P 500 later broke away from this corridor and soared to a higher level. In other words, a "phase transition" occurred.
The concept of phase transition is borrowed by the teaching chain from physics. The original meaning of phase transition refers to the sudden change of a substance from one phase to another under the continuous change of external parameters (such as temperature, pressure, magnetic field, etc.). The most common examples are ice turning into water and water turning into steam.
We cannot accurately predict whether BTC will undergo a phase change, under what conditions, when, and in what direction. But we must maintain the flexibility of our minds and cognition. As the Book of Changes says, a gentleman can change like a leopard. Don't let empiricism, dogmatism, and bookishness imprison your thoughts. Be prepared for major changes at any time, hold on to BTC tightly, and seize new opportunities in the new era.
