The latest data shows that US retail sales spending increased by 1% month-on-month to $709.7 billion in July. Strong consumer spending has temporarily eased market concerns that the economy may fall into recession. US stocks have responded well to this. As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have achieved six consecutive gains. However, crypto assets have not received the positive dividends of this macro data. Limited by the challenges of summer, BTC is still in a volatile consolidation stage.
In the past ten years, BTC has risen by more than 227% overall, 56% in the summer, and rebounded in the fourth quarter. Based on historical data and last year's data, BTC may also rise in the fourth quarter of this year. In order to prepare for the upcoming market in the next few months, it is recommended to pay attention to the following events that may affect BTC's trend at the end of the year.
The US inflation rate has fallen, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 74%.
The US inflation rate fell to 2.9%, far below the psychological threshold of 3.0%. This decline paved the way for the Fed to discuss interest rate cuts at its meeting on September 18, 2024. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 74%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 26%. If the rate cut is implemented, it will be the first rate cut since the rate hike cycle in July 2023, and it will also be the longest interval between the rate hike cycle and the first rate cut in recent years in the history of US monetary policy.
Powell will have a window to set the tone for a September rate cut next Friday
According to Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at 10:00 p.m. Beijing time next Friday, the first full-day meeting of the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This annual meeting of global central banks provides Powell with an opportunity to make an updated assessment of the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy between the Fed's July and September policy meetings. Last month, he said that if inflation and the labor market continue to cool, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting.
Harris leads Trump in polls, market closely follows Harris's stance on crypto assets
Poll data shows that Harris has become the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election on November 5, 2024. But unlike another candidate, Trump, Harris' attitude towards crypto assets is unknown. Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at repairing relations in the cryptocurrency industry, but Harris has not yet attended. Harris's cryptocurrency policy stance may affect the future direction of BTC.
