Yesterday, a friend of mine chatted with me. He has been buying Bitcoin crazily recently and has stored all of his purchases in a cold wallet. He firmly believes that Bitcoin will rise to $200,000 in the future bull market and wants to make a fortune.
I used to be as enthusiastic as he was, saving money and buying like crazy. I think that when you are alive, you should be brave enough to seize opportunities.
However, as I grow older and gain more experience, I now think differently. I believe it is wise to resist greed and follow the market trend.
Financial markets are a world full of uncertainty. The real fact is that resources are limited and unevenly distributed. Conflicts around the world are actually about competing for these limited resources.
We cannot control whether the price of Bitcoin will rise to $200,000. What we can control is when to buy, when to sell, and which assets to buy.
The key to making money in this market is to master these three things: buying timing, selling timing and asset selection. The rest is basically out of your control. Do you realize this?
The financial market is full of lies and deception. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates vigorously in the past two years. In order to pay these interests, it cannot print money directly, but can only earn money through the capital market. The fastest way to make money is to push up the stock market, attract capital inflows, and thus reduce inflation.
When the stock market goes up, they keep selling, and the buyers are all retail investors. When retail investors see interest rate cuts and the stock market is going to go up, they will rush in, hoping to make the last profit.
However, these people will eventually be harvested. Although interest rate cuts will bring liquidity and push up asset prices, it is not those assets that have risen a lot, but those assets that have fallen very low that will be favored.
Therefore, wealth will undergo a major transformation in the coming year. Assets that once made a lot of money may cause some people to lose everything, and wealth will be quietly transferred.
Based on my experience with Bitcoin, although the current price is high, it is much lower than last year. In the history of Bitcoin, it usually rises for three years in four years and falls for one year. In 2023, Bitcoin rose by 143%, and from 2024 to now it is 33%. It is predicted that it may be positive in 2025, but it may fall by 60% in 2026.
Therefore, someone who bought Bitcoin in 2025 may suffer a 60% loss in 2026. The only solution is to sell all your assets before the end of 2025 or not to buy any more assets.
Judging from the current market trends, the crypto will not be in good shape in 2024. The performance of the bull market is the opposite of the three-year bear market and one-year bull market we have seen in the past.
The bull market is always a hindsight. Most people buy at the high point and then get stuck for three years, waiting for the next bull market to get out of the trap. If you decide to buy, don't bet all your money, because we can't predict the market trend. If you buy too much, it's easy to be overwhelmed and you may end up selling at a loss.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
If you want to know more about the secret of wealth or have any questions, please follow the official account: Crypto Conan
