Are you a little confused about the market recently? Don’t be confused. The current daily line is in the range of 56,000-62,000 US dollars. Only when the closing is out of this range can a new trend emerge . From a technical point of view:
The daily line is below the EMA20 as a whole, and the EMA10 line is still below the EMA20 line , indicating that both the daily and weekly lines are very weak, and the bears have a clear advantage. Therefore, I will continue to focus on whether the daily line can close and stabilize at the two pressure levels of $62,000 and $65,000.
On-chain feedback: the potential for bottoming out and rebounding is increasing
First, let's look at what percentage of investors are profitable in the chart below. This indicator is good at identifying price tops and bottoms. We see that the loss rate of the July crash has fallen below . This is the lowest level since the beginning of 2024. That is, based on historical data, the potential for a bottoming out and recovery is increasing.
The market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) also repeated the bottom of early July. Slightly lower levels were not seen until early 2024. The second indicator also points out that the Bitcoin price must recover somehow. In fact, as we can see from the chart, the bull run has not yet reached the peak of the previous bull run, and the period of stable growth of MVRV in this cycle is short.
Finally, miner reserves returned to 1.91 million after hitting a local peak on July 30, but have been recovering from a local bottom in recent days. As a result, miners are also turning to savings.
Will the altcoin season come again? Bitcoin and altcoin market capitalization share
The Bitcoin market capitalization ratio indicator looks interesting at the moment. It continues to fall after retesting the 57% level, which seems to be a key position. If we refer to the data of the past cycles, we can also find that this position seems to be a theoretically optimal position range at the beginning of the alt season. As shown in the figure below.
Although many analysts believe that we will not see the copycat season again, the data indicators do not seem to show that the situation is that bad. However, the indicators are only a feedback of historical data and cannot accurately predict the market.
As for whether the price of Bitcoin will continue to hit new highs this year, everyone has their own opinions on this matter. In fact, other people’s opinions are not of much practical help to your current operations. Your pressure may not be whether BTC can break new highs or reach $100,000 this year, but that there may be problems with your risk assessment and position management. Therefore, we suggest that you do more reflection and review from these two aspects.
As for the market trend, whether we can see a bull market before the end of this year (or the first quarter of next year), let's first look at the market performance in September and October. The main issue affecting the market is liquidity, and liquidity mainly depends on the macroeconomic situation.
In short, the market is still in a critical adjustment period . There are some favorable catalysts as well as some unfavorable factors. The risks during this period are often the greatest, and the market needs greater liquidity stimulation + new narrative stories to promote a big bull market.
Therefore, if you cannot make a decision yourself, then the best thing to do during this period is to do nothing. If you want to do something, our advice remains the same: if you think the bull market is still there, then continue to buy BTC or ETH in batches (note that it is in batches) at a position you can accept, and then wait patiently, and be mentally prepared for the long term.
Give yourself more time and wait patiently. The market will soon experience an explosive rally.
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