Written by: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Long-term U.S. investors began to exit in the second quarter, and market funds continued to flow in. We may expect BTC to get out of the volatile market in August.
Market Week
This week, Bitcoin opened at $58,717.44 and closed at $58,437.90, with a high of $61,827.20 and a low of $56,120.00, with an amplitude of 9.72%. The whole week was suppressed by the weekly and bi-weekly lines, running below the bull market rising channel line, but still within the new high consolidation area. Coinbase trading volume decreased by 55% compared with last week.
The market is still in a slow recovery after being hit hard. In the same environment, US stocks are stronger than BTC, and the Nasdaq rose 5.29% for the week, continuing last week's rebound.
BTC needs further recovery in funds to keep up with the pace of US stocks. This week, funds in the stablecoin channel continued to flow in on a large scale, but the US spot ETF channel, the main force in this cycle, only maintained a weak net inflow. This shows that external funds are temporarily in a slower pace. If the ETF channel funds recover, the resonance with the stablecoin channel funds is expected to lift the weekly suppression and achieve the next breakthrough.
What is worth noting this week is that the just-concluded US 13F institutional holdings report revealed that 701 new funds have increased their holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Q2, bringing the total number of holders to 1,950 funds. Unlike last quarter when hedge funds dominated the institutional market, this time the investment advisors of Wall Street giants became the largest holders of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, holding a total of more than $4.7 billion.
Among them, Goldman Sachs holds $418 million worth of Bitcoin, while Morgan Stanley purchased $188 million worth of Bitcoin.
The Wisconsin Pension Fund doubled its holdings of BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust last quarter. According to our statistics, the average holding cost of ETFs is about $58,000 so far, and the cost of investors who have recently entered the market is likely to be lower than these giants.
I believe that after a 90-day wait-and-see period, more and more long-term investors such as wealth management companies, insurance institutions, pension funds, and family offices have just begun to enter. This will lay the foundation for the medium- and long-term trend of BTC.
Federal Reserve and economic data
There is no core economic data released in the United States this week. Most institutions believe that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy has increased, and the interest rate will only be cut by 25 basis points in September. Some institutions (JPMorgan Chase) believe that even if the interest rate is cut by 100 basis points this year, the overall US dollar liquidity will still be tight. The US dollar index continued to fall, and gold broke through $2,500/ounce.
Funding
Following last week’s massive inflow of $23.36, stablecoins continued to see large inflows this week, with a total increase of 1.655 billion. Both USDT and USDC saw positive inflows of 1.275 billion and 363 million respectively, with USDT’s inflow exceeding that of last week.
The BTC ETF channel had positive inflows for 4 out of 5 trading days, but the net inflow for the whole week was only US$32.58 million, which ended the previous two consecutive weeks of net outflows.
Chip Supply
This week, the market continued to "go from short to long", with long positions reaching 82,100, while short positions reduced by 66,700. Short positions have been reduced for eight consecutive weeks, and this week is the second largest reduction in eight weeks.
Short-term traders are still in a painful average loss range and are selling their positions at loss prices, resulting in losses of tens of millions of dollars every day.
12,600 BTC were outflowed from exchanges this week, the largest outflow since June 15. This indicates that not only the short-term selling pressure has been absorbed, but the inventory is also being slowly absorbed. The miners increased their holdings by 600, achieving a 4-week increase in holdings. The hash rate has fallen, but remains high.
BTC on-chain data
After being fixed last week, new addresses and active addresses have remained flat or declined this week. Transactions are the same as last week, and Gas revenue is still sluggish.
Ecological analysis
Ethereum Eco has recovered well, with new addresses, active addresses, and total transfers returning to the expansion zone.
Solana's new addresses, active addresses, and total transfer numbers continue to recover and are returning to the expansion zone.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator
The EMC BTC Cycle on-chain data engine shows that we are still in a temporary break in the bull market, with the indicator strength at only 0.125.
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