Written by: cyclop
Compiled by: Chris, Techub News
As the cryptocurrency market fell, the Fear & Greed Index fell to 26, close to its lowest point in a year. The last time the index was at this level, the price of SOL was around $11. In January 2023, September 2023, and July 2022, the Fear & Greed Index also reached similar lows before the market rose. Although everyone knows "sell when others are greedy and buy when others are fearful", in reality, only a very small number of investors (less than 1%) can actually do this.
Many people think that the bull market has ended, but Cyclop believes that the bull market has not yet begun. The following are 10 reference indicators listed by Cyclop.
Stablecoin Index
The index tracks new money entering the crypto market. It is currently far from the levels of previous cycles. Once liquidity increases, the market will grow accordingly.
Trading Volume
Even though the price of Bitcoin has broken through its previous highs, the trading volume is much lower now compared to 2021. Retail participation is extremely low, so once retail participation increases, the market will rise.
YT Metrics (YouTube Views)
Compared to the previous cycle, the YT indicator has decreased by about 5 times. In 2021, Bitcoin was worth $70,000 and had 4 million page views per day. Now, Bitcoin is worth $70,000 and has about 800,000 page views per day. This shows that retail investor interest is still low and there is room for growth.
BTC.D (Bitcoin market capitalization share)
The chart below shows the percentage of BTC market cap to the total cryptocurrency market cap. Since April, BTC.D has been consolidating in the 54% to 57% range. Once BTC.D falls below this range, it will mark the beginning of the alt season.
Coinbase Download Ranking
Historically, when Coinbase becomes the most downloaded app, it’s time to sell and exit the market. (As shown in the chart below, it’s currently ranked #13)
Google Trends
Google Trends data shows that searches for Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or Altcoin are currently still far below 2021 levels. Evaluating global trends over the past 5 years, current search interest is 2.5 times lower than in 2021.
Fed Trends
The chart shows that when the Fed injects liquidity, such as buying assets, the Fed's balance sheet increases. This means more money enters the market, driving economic activity and investment. When the Fed reduces liquidity, such as selling assets, the balance sheet decreases and there is less money in the market.
It is important to follow this trend because if the Fed reduces liquidity, there will be less money in the traditional financial market and subsequently in the cryptocurrency market. A reversal of the trend could lead to a liquidity crunch, which would have a negative impact on the market.
Global Net Liquidity Index
This indicator monitors the asset reserves held by central banks and the Federal Reserve. Currently, global liquidity is in a consolidation phase, with no significant increase or decrease. However, the chart shows that changes may occur in the future. This means that upcoming changes may affect the liquidity conditions in global markets.
VC Investment
The movement of venture capital funds reflects the market's interest in certain fields or projects. In 2021, venture capital financing reached a peak, which coincided with the peak of the bull market in the cryptocurrency market. However, the data on venture capital financing is now four times lower than it was then. This shows that the current market's interest in investment has greatly decreased.
OTHERS/BTC
The OTHERS/BTC indicator reflects the performance of the Altcoin market. Currently, this indicator is lower than in December 2023, which means that the major growth of the Altcoin market has not yet arrived.
If you are wrong to think that the major growth in the Altcoin market is yet to come, then you should know that even GCR (a well-known investor or analyst) is optimistic about the market and is bullish on the Altcoin market.
