Guest : Anthony Scaramucci, Founder of SkyBridge
Moderator : Giovanni Pigni, Cointelegraph video reporter
Podcast source : Cointelegraph
Original title : Will the US Elections Trigger the Next Crypto Bull Run?
Air Date : August 20, 2024
Background Information
In this episode, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci explains why Trump's victory in the US election will not benefit the crypto industry, and how Kamala Harris is jeopardizing her chances by ignoring pro-crypto voters.
Who is the better candidate in the cryptocurrency market, Trump or Harris?
Anthony said that despite his criticism of Trump, from the perspective of the crypto industry, the industry generally believes that Trump is the better candidate.
However, Anthony points out that the industry has overlooked many factors that require careful consideration in this choice.
He further analyzed Trump's policy intentions, believing that Trump wants to change the American system, weaken the judiciary and legislature, and strengthen executive power, which may lead to an oligarchic situation. He warned that such changes may weaken the capital market and the United States' position in the world. Although Trump may launch some positive cryptocurrency policies, it may also lead to great chaos in the world.
In contrast, Anthony believes that the Biden administration is doing well economically, and although he is dissatisfied with the government's stance against cryptocurrencies, he still believes that the Biden administration is worthy of recognition in terms of respect for the law. He mentioned that as Bitcoin enters the field of obtaining an official ETF, if Harris is elected, there will be great progress in the regulation of cryptocurrencies.
Finally, Anthony emphasized that he believed that under Harris’ leadership, Bitcoin would perform well and the world would be a better place, so he decided to support Harris.
Is Harris’ attempt to work with the crypto industry considered a “scam”?
The host mentioned that many people in the crypto industry are not confident about the Democratic Party's shift in cryptocurrency policy. He mentioned that the Federal Reserve cracked down on the few banks in the United States that supported cryptocurrencies on August 9, and Tyler Winklevoss said that the crypto reset that the Democrats are trying to show is actually a scam, suggesting that Harris' presidency will continue to oppose cryptocurrency policies.
Anthony said he thinks Tyler is right on the issue. He admitted that it frustrates him, but he is not a single-issue voter and is more concerned about the broader impact. He pointed out that the cryptocurrency industry is doing well despite the Biden administration's tough stance. He emphasized his efforts to promote positive regulatory reforms and end activities like "Operation Choke Point 2.0."
Anthony told the audience that Tyler's point of view made sense, and if someone chose to support Trump, he could understand the decision, but he himself would not support Trump because he understood the dangers of Trump. He hopes to promote bipartisan cooperation in the concept and regulation of cryptocurrency because he believes that this will be more conducive to the development of the industry. He insisted on his point of view that such bilateral cooperation is necessary.
Do you believe in Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan?
Anthony affirmed this and thought it would be a very good idea if Trump did implement this plan. He praised Trump for having many smart people around him, such as David Bailey, who provided him with advice. He mentioned that he had heard Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference and thought the content of the speech was quite good.
Anthony imagined that if the United States could have one to three million bitcoins and include them in the national debt as strategic asset reserves, this would be a very wise move. He emphasized that if the value of these bitcoins reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars, imagine the potential value and impact of this plan.
Can Crypto Voters Make an Influence in US Elections?
Anthony further analyzed that if Vice President Harris loses the election, post-mortem analysis will likely point to her stance in the cryptocurrency industry as one of the reasons for her defeat, as she underestimated the number of people who own cryptocurrencies. He mentioned that there are approximately 50 million people in the United States who hold cryptocurrencies, many of whom may be single-issue voters.
He proposed a hypothesis: Even if only 25 million people own cryptocurrencies, if 5% of them are single-issue voters, this means that 1.25 million people may vote in swing states. If these voters vote in swing states, Harris may lose the election. Anthony emphasized that the Democratic Party’s negative strategy on cryptocurrencies is an obvious signal, and he is working to push some people who support Harris to listen to the voice of the cryptocurrency industry in order to change her policy direction, but he is uncertain whether she is willing to do so.
Will the US Election Spark the Next Crypto Bull Run?
Anthony said that we should first review the development history of Bitcoin. He mentioned that for the first time since the birth of Bitcoin, it reached its historical high before the halving. In addition, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) were introduced before this halving. After the halving, the daily output of Bitcoin decreased from 900 to 450, which created selling pressure on the market. In addition, he mentioned that during the Mt. Gox bankruptcy incident, about $9 billion worth of Bitcoin was sold in a short period of time.
He believes that despite these selling pressures, Bitcoin is still able to trade around $60,000, which shows the health of the market. He predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in three months, explaining that the selling pressure from Mt. Gox and the selling pressure from the US and German governments have disappeared, coupled with the market's positive reaction to ETFs, which are important factors driving Bitcoin's rise.
Anthony concluded by saying that while the election could be a catalyst, he believes the real catalyst is the lack of sellers in the market, especially after Mt. Gox and government sell-offs, which will be the key factor driving Bitcoin prices higher.
Which crypto projects are you currently optimistic about?
Anthony expressed his views on several projects, mentioning that his holdings include:
Bitcoin - As a leader in cryptocurrency, Anthony is optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.
Ethereum - As a smart contract platform, Ethereum plays an important role in the field of decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi (decentralized finance).
Solana- Anthony said his investment in Solana may be due to its high performance and low transaction fees.
Algorand - He also holds Algorand, probably because of its technology and application potential.
Avalanche - Anthony has high respect for the Avalanche team and holds a large position.
Vulgar Forge - This is a gaming token in which Anthony holds a small position.
He concluded that his main investments are concentrated in Bitcoin and Solana, indicating that these projects have great potential and value in his eyes.
When will we see US approval of the Solana ETF?
Anthony analyzed whether Solana will be the next exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be approved. The main points are as follows:
SEC ’s stance: Anthony noted that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) considers Solana a security, which complicates its inclusion in an ETF. In the U.S., a single security cannot be directly included in an ETF, but multiple securities can be grouped together.
Example of Ethereum: He mentioned that if Ethereum is considered a non-security, then why would Solana be considered a security? This inconsistency confuses the industry and criticizes the double standards of current regulators.
Future regulatory changes: Anthony believes that as the US election progresses, the existing SEC regulators may be replaced by more industry-supportive regulators, which will help promote the approval of the Solana ETF. If Trump wins the election, he believes that the Solana ETF has a good chance of being approved in the first quarter of next year.
Long-term outlook: Even in the event that Trump loses the election, Anthony still believes that the Solana ETF could still be approved by the end of 2025 because he believes the industry will prevail legally and that existing regulatory actions are unfair.
Overall, Anthony is optimistic about the future of the Solana ETF, but he also admits that the specific approval time is still uncertain and may be affected by the political and regulatory environment.
