As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, market prediction platform Polymarket has shown that Donald Trump's odds are steadily rising. The latest forecast indicates that he has garnered 53% support, while his main competitor, current Vice President Kamala Harris, remains at 46%. This shift in data has sparked widespread attention and discussion, particularly within financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. Trump's increasing support as the Republican candidate not only reflects his strengths in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party unity, but also highlights the challenges and difficulties Harris faces in her campaign.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, market prediction platform Polymarket shows that Donald Trump's odds are steadily rising. The latest predictions give him a 53% approval rating, while his main competitor, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, lags behind at 46%. This shift in numbers has sparked widespread attention and debate, particularly within financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican candidate, Trump's rising support reflects not only his strengths in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion but also highlights the challenges and dilemmas Harris faces in her campaign. This article will delve into the key factors driving Trump's increasing odds, including the impact of Democratic economic policies, shifts in moderate voters' attitudes, the absence of key state political figures, and the broad support Trump enjoys within the cryptocurrency industry, aiming to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.
I. Is "Harris Economics" Failing to Resonate?
One of Kamala Harris's central campaign platforms is her proposed economic policy, often referred to as "Harris Economics." However, this policy has sparked widespread controversy, particularly among moderate voters.
1. The Controversy over Price Control Policies
The most controversial aspect of Harris's economic policy is her proposed price control measures. These measures aim to legislate the limitation of corporate pricing power on essential goods to prevent price gouging. While theoretically beneficial for controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, economists and policy experts widely question the feasibility of such measures in practice.
Many experts argue that price controls could distort the market, leading to supply chain issues and product shortages. For instance, an editorial in The Washington Post suggested that Harris's price control policies could disrupt the supply-demand balance in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding. Such concerns are not without precedent, as similar historical measures have often failed due to poor market reactions. Although these policies might attract voters seeking short-term relief from rising living costs, they could lead to long-term economic instability, harming Harris's support among moderate voters, particularly those who prioritize economic stability and market freedom.
2. Challenges in Housing Policy
Harris's housing policy has also played a complicated role in her campaign. She has proposed a plan to address housing shortages by building a significant number of affordable middle-class homes. While this policy appears reasonable on paper—especially given the worsening housing crisis in the U.S.—its execution costs are extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness have been widely questioned.
For example, Harris has promised to build 3 million affordable homes during her first term. However, the funding sources and implementation details remain unclear. Furthermore, she has pledged not to increase taxes on households earning less than $400,000 annually, implying that the project might rely on substantial government deficits or higher taxes on the wealthy, which could exacerbate criticism both inside and outside the Democratic Party.
This uncertainty not only unsettles moderate voters but also undermines Harris's credibility in policy execution. While housing price controls and subsidies for homebuyers seem to cater directly to the interests of low- and middle-income voters, they could inadvertently drive prices higher, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Although the housing policy highlights Harris's concern for social issues, its design flaws and execution challenges have negatively impacted her campaign.
3. Attracting and Limiting the Middle Class
The core of Harris's economic policy is to improve the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular focus on increasing child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs to enhance the economic security of this group. These measures are theoretically helpful in alleviating the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially in the context of rising childcare costs and healthcare expenses.
However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies have garnered support from some voters, their long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The middle-class vote is crucial for any candidate, but if the policies are poorly executed, these votes could swing to her opponent. Harris's policy designs, although idealistic, are marred by potential issues during implementation, such as the possibility of increasing the federal deficit, which diminishes their appeal to the middle class.
Additionally, Harris has attempted to link economic policies with social justice issues, such as promoting anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on marginalized groups to achieve broader social equity. However, this approach, while garnering support from progressives, has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates who fear that these policies might expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.
4. Overall Impact on the Election
Overall, while Harris's economic policies demonstrate her concern for the middle class and low-income groups, their radical design and lack of execution details have hindered her ability to effectively boost her support among moderates and economically liberal voters. On the contrary, these voters may lean toward supporting Trump, who has a clearer stance and more pragmatic policies.
The controversy surrounding these policies not only puts Harris on the defensive in the election but also provides Trump with ample opportunities to attack. Trump can exploit the uncertainties in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters more concerned with economic stability and growth. Therefore, the impact of Democratic economic policies in this election is dual: on one hand, they solidify Harris's support among progressives, while on the other, they create more uncertainty among key moderate voters, paving the way for Trump's rising odds.
Harris's policies, including measures to reduce living costs, control prices, and increase housing supply, theoretically address the challenges facing the American middle class. However, due to unclear execution details and potential fiscal deficit issues, these policies have faced widespread criticism.
For example, Harris's proposed price control policies, while potentially appealing to some voters in the short term, have been criticized by many economists and media as "populist gimmicks" that fail to effectively address real issues and may instead lead to market distortions and product shortages. Such negative assessments have weakened Harris's support among voters, particularly among moderates who place a high priority on economic issues and are more inclined to support candidates who can ensure economic stability and market freedom.
II. The Unstable Attitudes of American Moderate Voters
Moderate voters often play a critical role in U.S. elections. Their positions are usually not strongly aligned with either side and are more focused on the actual policies of candidates and their impact on the economy and society. Amid the controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, her support among moderate voters has begun to wane. In contrast, Trump's economic policies, while controversial, have a clearer stance that aligns with moderate voters' expectations for economic development.
Additionally, Trump's support for free markets and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have won the approval of some moderate voters. By comparison, Harris's economic policies are perceived as too radical, particularly in areas like price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to gain traction among moderates.
III. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro's Absence and Its Impact on Democratic Unity
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's absence has negatively impacted Harris's campaign. As a key swing state, Pennsylvania's voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategy, which could further weaken her support in the state.
In this scenario, voters may begin to doubt Harris's ability to run a successful campaign and maintain party cohesion, which could lead them to support Trump, who appears more decisive. Shapiro's absence not only affects Harris's prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and securing support in key states are crucial for her campaign success. However, Shapiro's absence undeniably adds to the challenges she faces in these areas.
Ⅳ. Trump and the Crypto Industry: A Mutually Beneficial Relationship?
Trump's rising popularity can also be attributed to his support for the cryptocurrency industry. Although he initially held a negative stance toward cryptocurrencies, Trump gradually shifted his position as the market evolved, eventually becoming a strong advocate for the crypto sector.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump emerged as one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign announced that it would accept donations in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, among other cryptocurrencies. This move not only demonstrated his openness to the crypto world but also helped him forge closer ties with the crypto community.
The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations was a strategic one. It not only broadened Trump's voter base but also attracted younger voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often strongly identify with concepts like decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation. By accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sent a clear signal that he supports this emerging sector and is willing to advocate for it politically.
Beyond accepting crypto donations, Trump made a series of policy commitments that further solidified his standing within the crypto community. One of the most notable promises was to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, one of the earliest and most notorious cryptocurrency marketplaces. Ulbricht's case holds significant symbolic value within the crypto community. Trump's pledge not only garnered favor from many crypto supporters but also conveyed a tolerant attitude towards the industry.
Moreover, Trump indicated that if re-elected, he would push to include Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address portions of the national debt. While these proposals sparked widespread debate within mainstream financial circles, they were enthusiastically received by the crypto community. Crypto supporters believe that these measures would significantly enhance the legitimacy and global standing of cryptocurrencies, offering the industry greater opportunities for growth.
Trump's supportive stance has been widely recognized within the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position on cryptocurrency is more defined and proactive, which has garnered him substantial support in this emerging market. Crypto industry professionals and investors are highly attuned to market prospects, and they are more likely to back a candidate who demonstrates an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's position has clearly won him the support of this voter segment, contributing to his rising popularity.
Ⅴ. Cryptocurrency Companies' Election Spending in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle
According to a report by Public Citizen, nearly half of corporate political donations during the 2024 election cycle have come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates aligned with their interests. The crypto industry's support for Trump is evident not only in rhetoric but also through tangible financial contributions that have significantly impacted the election.
This level of corporate support has further solidified Trump’s standing within the crypto community and its related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors channel funds into pro-Trump political action committees (PACs), Trump’s financial and publicity advantage in the election has been strengthened, directly contributing to the rise in his odds on prediction markets like Polymarket.
Conclusion: The final outcome remains uncertain, but we anticipate a potential easing of Web3 policies under the winning candidate.
In summary, the rise in Trump’s odds is the result of several converging factors. Harris’s economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among moderate voters, making it difficult for her to increase her support base. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro's absence has heightened concerns about internal party divisions, further weakening Harris’s standing in crucial states. Meanwhile, Trump’s favorable stance on the crypto industry has garnered him widespread recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, substantial political donations from crypto companies have provided significant support for Trump’s campaign.
In the coming months, both Trump and Harris will face enormous challenges. They will need to continuously adjust their strategies to garner more voter support, especially in key swing states. For Trump, maintaining his stronghold in the crypto industry and expanding his appeal to moderate voters will be crucial to maintaining his lead. On the other hand, Harris will need to find a breakthrough to regain the trust of moderate voters while strengthening party unity to face the upcoming election climax.
Regardless of the final outcome, this election is poised to have a profound impact on the U.S. and global crypto markets. For investors and market participants, closely monitoring the policy directions of both candidates will be essential for shaping future investment strategies.
