Just last night, the NFT market Magic Eden finally officially announced its Token ME.

There is no doubt that ME will be the most profitable airdrop that NFT players can expect in recent times. So, what data can we use to get a preliminary understanding of how much the "Magic Eden diamonds" in our hands will be worth? In today's extremely weak NFT market, what else is worth looking forward to for Magic Eden?

When will the airdrop come?

Magic Eden’s Official Twitter posted a tweet in May, “Token claiming products in the wallet will arrive at the end of the third quarter.” This is consistent with the tweet announcing ME in the screenshot above, that ME will be claimed in the Magic Eden wallet.

If we look back at the Official Twitter of Magic Eden, Magic Eden was officially launched on September 18, 2021 (there was also testing earlier). So, will the ME airdrop take place on September 18 this year, which is Magic Eden's third anniversary?

Price prediction?

In June of this year, Magic Eden announced that its NFT series "Magic Tickets" could be burned to redeem "diamond" rewards.

Currently, the activity of exchanging "diamonds" has ended. In a month, the floor price of Magic Tickets was basically stable at around 0.4 SOL, and each Magic Ticket of the lowest level could be exchanged for 500 diamonds. If we simply take the price of SOL in that month as $140 to estimate, the cost of each "diamond" is $0.112.

But after that, the "diamond" farming activity did not stop but continued, so the price of $0.112 is obviously no longer effective as a reference for us now. Citing @crypto_laodong's analysis - the current cost of diamonds is between $0.013 and $0.023.

Since there are no airdrop details and Tokenomics disclosures yet, it is difficult for us to make price predictions for the upcoming airdrop. However, based on my observations of foreigners in OTC, foreigners do not seem to be very interested in OTC Magic Eden "diamonds". Some sales orders only appeared a week ago, and the price they want to sell is roughly $0.04-0.05 per "diamond".

Could it be "Da Mao"?

Considering the current bleak NFT market, it is hard to say that Magic Eden will be a "big hair". The best benchmark for us to refer to is naturally Blur + Blast, the FDV of which is less than 2 billion US dollars. The reason for not only using Blur to benchmark Magic Eden is that Magic Eden has launched its own wallet "Magic Eden Wallet". Whether from the official statement or action, it is the rhythm of building a full-chain large application ecosystem, so it is more appropriate to include the value of Blast.

Next, Magic Eden is already the No. 1 NFT market, and its FDV should be higher than Blur + Blast. However, there is not much time left until the token issuance we predicted earlier, maybe less than a month. In such a short time, I don’t think there will be any big news in the NFT market to ignite everyone’s enthusiasm, so even if it is higher than Blur + Blast, it may not be much higher.

However, Magic Eden certainly has its advantages. First of all, Magic Eden is currently the most active and profitable NFT market. In the past 30 days, the number of active users of Magic Eden is only 2,000 less than OpenSea.

But looking at the percentage of active users of each chain, Magic Eden occupies the "most active present" Solana and the "most promising future" Bitcoin.

In the past month, Solana has the most active NFT players. Although Polygon looks impressive, it has a lot of "wash trading". Or to put it simply - there may never be a Polygon NFT project that impresses you, and there hasn't been a new ETH NFT project that has spread widely for a long time. Former NFT players are currently mainly on Solana and Bitcoin when it comes to new projects.

In the past 30 days, Magic Eden also had the highest revenue, reaching $1.8 million, far ahead of OpenSea and Tensor.

Although Magic Eden has been challenged by Tensor on its "hometown" Solana, the two are still evenly matched, and Magic Eden's own user base has formed a "barbell structure" of Solana + Bitcoin. In the Bitcoin ecosystem, Magic Eden currently occupies the top spot in rune trading. Therefore, if runes explode in the future and Magic Eden's rune swap function is launched, they are expected to gain more in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

But will this drive up the price of ME when it is released, especially when the Rune and Ordinals ecosystem is not really thriving yet? I am not optimistic.

Conclusion

In any case, Magic Eden's airdrop is undoubtedly exciting for NFT players. After all, it is like a rain after a long drought. Moreover, recalling the high "account opening fee" paid to OpenSea at that time, there is no reason not to expect and support the heartwarming benefits given by Magic Eden in the bear market.

I just hope that this "hair" can grow bigger and bigger in the end...

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