Powell's Six Previous Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Speech Review

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MarsBit
08-23
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Mars Finance reported that since he took office as the chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2018, Powell has delivered six important speeches at Jackson Hole. The following is the key information of his previous speeches and the impact on the 2-year Treasury yield and investment bank expectations that are more sensitive to interest rates:

On August 24, 2018, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -1Bp after the speech. He advocated gradual rate hikes as a compromise, which the market will gradually understand as once a quarter; expressed doubts about the forecast values of r* (neutral interest rate) and u* (neutral unemployment rate); pointed out that overheating risks include excessive financial expansion, not just high inflation.

On August 23, 2019, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -4Bp after the speech. He advocated further interest rate cuts to address a series of downside risks and suggested that the market has already priced in interest rate cuts to keep financial conditions loose. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for further interest rate cuts.

August 27, 2020, 2-year Treasury yield +0.4Bp after speech. Announced the adoption of a flexible average inflation target, concluding the review of the monetary policy framework. This is an important long-term easing shift, but it is largely in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs brought forward the expected timing of changes to forward guidance and asset purchase programs by one meeting.

On August 27, 2021, the 2-year Treasury yield was -2Bp after the speech. While acknowledging the recent strong employment data, it also pointed out the downside risks posed by the new crown Delta variant; strengthening expectations of an imminent announcement of a reduction in bond purchases.

On August 26, 2022, the 2-year Treasury yield was +4Bp after the speech. Reiterated that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point, but at the same time said that policy may need to remain tight for quite some time to control inflation, and said that an additional 75 basis points may be appropriate, but it will depend on the data.

On August 25, 2023, the 2-year Treasury yield was +4Bp after the speech. The Fed said it would act cautiously when deciding whether to raise interest rates at future meetings, which suggests there will be no further rate hikes at the next meeting or in this cycle; a more hawkish risk assessment was made, noting that the Fed noticed that the economy might not be cooling as expected.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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