火星财消息，自 2018 年开始担任美联储主席以来，鲍威尔已经在杰克逊霍尔发表了六次重要讲话。以下是他以往讲话的关键信息，以及对利率较为敏感的 2 年期美债收益率和投行预期的影响：
2018 年 8 月 24 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-1Bp。主张逐步加息作为折中，市场将逐步理解为每季度一次;表达了对 r*(中性利率) 和 u*(中性失业率) 预测值的怀疑;指出过热风险包括金融过度扩张，而不仅是高通胀。
2019 年 8 月 23 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-4Bp。主张进一步降息，以应对一系列下行风险，并暗示市场已经将降息纳入定价，以保持金融条件的宽松。随后高盛提高了进一步降息的预期。
2020 年 8 月 27 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+0.4Bp。宣布采用灵活的平均通胀目标，结束了对货币政策框架的评估。这是一个重要的长期宽松转变，但与预期基本一致。高盛将对前瞻性指引和资产购买计划变更的预期时间点提前了一次会议。
2021 年 8 月 27 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-2Bp。在承认近期就业数据强劲的同时，也指出了新冠德尔塔变异株带来的下行风险;强化了即将宣布缩减购债的预期。
2022 年 8 月 26 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+4Bp。重申在某个时点放缓加息步伐是合适的，但同时表示政策可能需要在相当长一段时间保持紧缩，以控制通胀，并表示额外的 75 个基点可能是合适的，但将取决于数据。
2023 年 8 月 25 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+4Bp。表示在决定未来会议是否加息时，美联储将谨慎行事这表明下一次会议或本周期内不会再加息；做出了更为鹰派的风险评估，并指出美联储注意到经济可能不像预期那样在冷却。

<div>火星财消息，自 2018 年开始担任美联储主席以来，鲍威尔已经在杰克逊霍尔发表了六次重要讲话。以下是他以往讲话的关键信息，以及对利率较为敏感的 2 年期美债收益率和投行预期的影响： 2018 年 8 月 24 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-1Bp。主张逐步加息作为折中，市场将逐步理解为每季度一次;表达了对 r*(中性利率) 和 u*(中性失业率) 预测值的怀疑;指出过热风险包括金融过度扩张，而不仅是高通胀。 2019 年 8 月 23 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-4Bp。主张进一步降息，以应对一系列下行风险，并暗示市场已经将降息纳入定价，以保持金融条件的宽松。随后高盛提高了进一步降息的预期。 2020 年 8 月 27 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+0.4Bp。宣布采用灵活的平均通胀目标，结束了对货币政策框架的评估。这是一个重要的长期宽松转变，但与预期基本一致。高盛将对前瞻性指引和资产购买计划变更的预期时间点提前了一次会议。 2021 年 8 月 27 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-2Bp。在承认近期就业数据强劲的同时，也指出了新冠德尔塔变异株带来的下行风险;强化了即将宣布缩减购债的预期。 2022 年 8 月 26 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+4Bp。重申在某个时点放缓加息步伐是合适的，但同时表示政策可能需要在相当长一段时间保持紧缩，以控制通胀，并表示额外的 75 个基点可能是合适的，但将取决于数据。 2023 年 8 月 25 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+4Bp。表示在决定未来会议是否加息时，美联储将谨慎行事这表明下一次会议或本周期内不会再加息；做出了更为鹰派的风险评估，并指出美联储注意到经济可能不像预期那样在冷却。</div>

鲍威尔此前六次杰克逊霍尔年会发言回顾

Here is the translation to English:

According to the news from Mars Finance, since taking office as the Federal Reserve Chairman in 2018, Powell has delivered six important speeches at the Jackson Hole conference. The key information from his past speeches and the impact on the 2-year US Treasury yield and investment bank expectations, which are relatively sensitive to interest rates, are as follows:

On August 24, 2018, the 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point after the speech. He advocated for gradual rate hikes as a compromise, with the market gradually understanding it as once per quarter; expressed doubts about the forecasted values of r* (neutral interest rate) and u* (neutral unemployment rate); pointed out that the risk of overheating includes financial over-expansion, not just high inflation.

On August 23, 2019, the 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points after the speech. He advocated for further rate cuts to address a series of downside risks, and hinted that the market had already priced in rate cuts to maintain loose financial conditions. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs increased its expectations for further rate cuts.

On August 27, 2020, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 0.4 basis points after the speech. He announced the adoption of a flexible average inflation target, concluding the evaluation of the monetary policy framework. This is an important long-term easing shift, but largely in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs brought forward the expected timing of changes to forward guidance and asset purchase plans by one meeting.

On August 27, 2021, the 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points after the speech. While acknowledging the recent strong employment data, he also pointed out the downside risks posed by the Delta variant of COVID-19; reinforced the expectation of an imminent announcement of tapering asset purchases.

On August 26, 2022, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points after the speech. He reiterated that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point, but also stated that policy may need to remain restrictive for a considerable time to control inflation, and indicated that an additional 75 basis points may be appropriate, but would depend on the data.

On August 25, 2023, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points after the speech. He stated that the Federal Reserve will act cautiously in deciding whether to raise rates at the next meeting or during this cycle, indicating that there may not be another rate hike at the next meeting or within this cycle; made a more hawkish risk assessment and pointed out that the Federal Reserve is aware that the economy may not cool as expected.

<div>Mars Finance reported that since he took office as the chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2018, Powell has delivered six important speeches at Jackson Hole. The following is the key information of his previous speeches and the impact on the 2-year Treasury yield and investment bank expectations that are more sensitive to interest rates: On August 24, 2018, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -1Bp after the speech. He advocated gradual rate hikes as a compromise, which the market will gradually understand as once a quarter; expressed doubts about the forecast values of r* (neutral interest rate) and u* (neutral unemployment rate); pointed out that overheating risks include excessive financial expansion, not just high inflation. On August 23, 2019, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -4Bp after the speech. He advocated further interest rate cuts to address a series of downside risks and suggested that the market has already priced in interest rate cuts to keep financial conditions loose. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for further interest rate cuts. August 27, 2020, 2-year Treasury yield +0.4Bp after speech. Announced the adoption of a flexible average inflation target, concluding the review of the monetary policy framework. This is an important long-term easing shift, but it is largely in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs brought forward the expected timing of changes to forward guidance and asset purchase programs by one meeting. On August 27, 2021, the 2-year Treasury yield was -2Bp after the speech. While acknowledging the recent strong employment data, it also pointed out the downside risks posed by the new crown Delta variant; strengthening expectations of an imminent announcement of a reduction in bond purchases. On August 26, 2022, the 2-year Treasury yield was +4Bp after the speech. Reiterated that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point, but at the same time said that policy may need to remain tight for quite some time to control inflation, and said that an additional 75 basis points may be appropriate, but it will depend on the data. On August 25, 2023, the 2-year Treasury yield was +4Bp after the speech. The Fed said it would act cautiously when deciding whether to raise interest rates at future meetings, which suggests there will be no further rate hikes at the next meeting or in this cycle; a more hawkish risk assessment was made, noting that the Fed noticed that the economy might not be cooling as expected.</div>

Powell's Six Previous Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Speech Review

The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 22 to 24, and the global community is highly focused on the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Powell, on August 23. It is expected that he will deliver the speech at 10 AM Eastern Time (10 PM Taiwan time) on Friday. With the significant downward revision of the US non-farm employment figures, and the July Federal Reserve meeting minutes showing that most officials support a rate cut in September, Powell is expected to convey a dovish tone.

Evercore ISI recently estimated that Powell should hint at a flexible approach to rate cuts, with a 25-basis-point cut in September being the basic scenario, but he remains open to a 50-basis-point cut.

The chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 1% in September exceeds 70%. Will Ball pour cold water on the market tonight?

Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard discussed the outlook for the US economy, the Fed's rate cut path, the US election, "Black Monday" and other hot topics, and said he believes there may be a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting, for several consecutive meetings, meaning there could be a 75 basis point rate cut from now until December. (Golden Ten)

Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard: Rate cuts of 75 basis points this year may be in the cards

The Odaily Planet Daily reported that the euro has risen to its highest level in a year, and ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, traders' bullish sentiment on the euro has reached its highest level since the end of 2020. The euro briefly rose to 1.1143 on Wednesday, the highest level since July 2023. The market expects that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will support their bets on rate cuts on Friday, and the Fed is expected to cut rates faster than the European Central Bank in the coming months.